Forest Green vs Chesham United Predictions
FA Cup · England
Forest Green
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Chesham United
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Forest Green Win
Match Result
8.2/10Forest Green Run Riot: Five-Star Display Sinks Chesham United in FA Cup Rout
Forest Green produced a scintillating attacking performance at The New Lawn, dispatching Chesham United 5-0 to cruise into the next round of the FA Cup. The hosts seized control early, netting three times inside the opening 25 minutes to effectively kill the contest before half-time. Chesham United, despite a spirited effort, could not stem the tide as Forest Green continued to dominate after the break, adding two more goals to complete the rout. With 52% possession and a barrage of 19 shots (9 on target), Forest Green were relentless going forward, while Chesham United struggled to cope with the home side’s movement and intensity. The visitors managed just four shots on target from 12 attempts and saw their discipline tested, picking up the game’s only yellow card. Ultimately, Forest Green’s clinical finishing and attacking verve proved far too much for Chesham United.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
5 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
13' — Goal
Forest Green open the scoring, setting the tone for the match.
17' — Goal
Forest Green double their lead, putting Chesham United on the back foot.
23' — Goal
Forest Green strike again, making it 3-0 inside 25 minutes.
57' — Goal
Forest Green add a fourth early in the second half, ending any hopes of a comeback.
78' — Goal
Forest Green complete the rout with a fifth goal.
Unknown' — Yellow Card
Chesham United player booked as frustration boils over.
Forest Green
Forest Green were in imperious form, dictating the tempo from the outset and showing ruthless efficiency in front of goal. Their 52% possession was put to good use, as they carved open Chesham United’s defence repeatedly, especially in a devastating 10-minute spell in the first half. The hosts maintained their attacking intent after the interval, ensuring there was no let-up and sealing a comprehensive victory with two further strikes. Defensively, Forest Green were largely untroubled, keeping a clean sheet and limiting Chesham United’s opportunities. Their discipline was also notable, finishing the match without a single booking.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Chesham United
Chesham United found themselves overwhelmed by Forest Green’s early onslaught and struggled to recover. Despite only narrowly losing the possession battle (48%), their inability to contain the hosts’ attack proved costly. With just one corner and four shots on target, Chesham rarely threatened to get back into the game, and their defensive frailties were ruthlessly exposed. The visitors’ frustration was reflected in the only yellow card of the match, and while they battled gamely, they were ultimately outclassed by a superior Forest Green side.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Forest Green’s approach was direct and incisive, likely deploying a formation that emphasized width and attacking numbers, as evidenced by their 19 shots and 9 on target. Their pressing high up the pitch forced Chesham United into mistakes and allowed them to sustain pressure, particularly during the first-half blitz. With only one corner won, Forest Green’s goals came primarily from open play, underlining their ability to break down Chesham’s defensive lines. Chesham United, meanwhile, struggled to adapt, possibly sticking with a compact shape but unable to close down space quickly enough. Their limited attacking output and lack of set-piece opportunities suggest they were pinned back for long periods, and any tactical adjustments failed to stem Forest Green’s momentum.
Turning Point
Forest Green’s third goal in the 23rd minute, which put the hosts 3-0 up and effectively ended the contest as a competitive affair.
Man of the Match
Forest Green Scorer (23')
His goal capped a devastating opening spell and ensured Forest Green’s dominance.
Forest Green vs Chesham United: Match Preview
Forest Green return home after being held to a 0-0 draw at Chesham United in the original tie, despite enjoying 75% possession and outshooting their opponents 9-0. Their recent form is patchy, with three draws and two defeats in their last five, but they have shown the ability to score against National League opposition. Chesham, meanwhile, have produced some high-scoring cup performances (7-2 and 4-3 wins) but have struggled defensively in league play, conceding nine in their last three outside the Forest Green tie.
From a statistical standpoint, the matchup is defined by Forest Green's superior attacking metrics against Chesham's porous defence. The home side's last five average of 1.4 goals scored per game contrasts with Chesham's 2.8 conceded, and the first meeting highlighted the step up in class for Chesham, who managed no shots and only 25% possession. While both teams have shown a tendency for BTTS (Forest Green 4/5, Chesham 2/5), the underlying rates suggest Forest Green should create the bulk of chances, especially at home.
The model expects Forest Green's control of territory and shot volume to eventually break Chesham's resistance, though the visitors' cup scoring record means they cannot be discounted entirely. A 2-1 home win is most likely, with the probability distribution reflecting a moderate goal environment and a strong chance of both teams scoring.
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Forest Green vs Chesham United Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Forest Green vs Chesham United that most previews miss.
- 1Chesham United's last three FA Cup matches (excluding the Forest Green tie) averaged 5.33 goals per game.
- 2Forest Green have seen both teams score in four of their last five matches.
- 3In the first meeting, Chesham United failed to register a single shot despite playing at home.
Who do you think wins: Forest Green vs Chesham United?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Forest Green vs Chesham United(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Forest Green Win
Forest Green's underlying scoring rate (1.4 goals per game last 5) and the step up in class for Chesham United, who have conceded 9 in their last 3 National League South/FA Cup matches (excluding the 0-0), suggest the home side's probability is understated by the consensus.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Chesham's matches have averaged 3.67 goals per game in the cup, and Forest Green have seen 4 of their last 5 finish with both teams scoring, indicating a higher-than-average goal environment.
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More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Forest Green vs Chesham United Prediction
Forest Green approach this replay after a goalless draw away at Chesham United, having dominated possession (75%) and registered 9 shots to Chesham's 0. Their recent form is mixed, with three draws and two defeats in their last five, but they have consistently found the net, averaging 1.4 goals per game in that span. Chesham United, meanwhile, have shown attacking promise in the FA Cup with 11 goals in three matches, but their defensive record is fragile, conceding 5 to Chelmsford and 4 to Maidenhead in recent league outings. Statistically, Forest Green's attack should find more success at home, especially given Chesham's concession rate of 2.8 per game over their last five. The visitors' shot and possession figures are extremely low against stronger opposition, as seen in the first match (0 shots, 25% possession). Forest Green's defensive numbers are far from watertight, but Chesham's ability to create chances appears limited when stepping up in class. Set-piece and discipline data are sparse, but Chesham's five yellow cards in the first tie suggest a physical approach under pressure. The model expects Forest Green's higher baseline in both attack and possession to tilt the replay their way, with Chesham likely to threaten sporadically but struggle to sustain attacks. The likeliest scenario is a narrow home win in a match that opens up after the break, with the underlying rates pointing to a 2-1 scoreline.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →The first meeting saw Forest Green dominate possession (75%) and shots (9-0).
Defence
- →Forest Green averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded in their last 5 matches.
- →Chesham United have conceded 9 goals in their last 3 non-Forest Green matches.
🚩 Forest Green vs Chesham United Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Forest Green and 4.3 for Chesham United, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 45%.
How Forest Green and Chesham United Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Forest Green vs Chesham United Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Forest Greenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chesham Unitedlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Forest Green's recent run is marked by three consecutive draws and two defeats, but they've averaged 1.4 goals per game and have only failed to score once in their last five. Chesham United, meanwhile, have alternated between heavy defeats and high-scoring wins, with defensive issues exposed against stronger sides. Both teams are coming off a goalless draw in their most recent fixture.
Forest Green vs Chesham United — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
What History Says: Forest Green vs Chesham United
There is only one head-to-head meeting on record, which ended 0-0 at Chesham United. Forest Green dominated that match in terms of possession and shots, suggesting a significant gap in quality, though Chesham managed to hold out defensively.
Forest Green vs Chesham United Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Forest Green wins
1
Draws
0
Chesham United wins
Things to Watch: Forest Green vs Chesham United
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Limited season data for both teams, especially for Chesham United away from home.
- ⚠️Small sample size for Chesham's defensive record against higher-tier opposition.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Forest Green 2–1 Chesham UnitedA 2-1 win for Forest Green is the most probable outcome, driven by their dominance in the first meeting and Chesham United's defensive frailty against higher-tier sides. The key data point is Chesham's concession rate of 2.8 per game over their last five, but the main risk is Forest Green's own inconsistency and recent defensive lapses, which could allow Chesham a foothold.
Forest Green vs Chesham United: Common Questions
Who will win Forest Green vs Chesham United?
Forest Green are favoured with a 41% win probability, compared to 27% for Chesham United and 32% for the draw. The model leans towards the home side due to their stronger attacking rates and Chesham's defensive record.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Chesham United?
The probability for both teams to score is 51%, reflecting Forest Green's 4/5 BTTS record and Chesham's attacking output in other FA Cup matches. However, Chesham failed to register a shot in the first meeting.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Forest Green vs Chesham United?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 54%, with both sides showing a tendency for high-scoring games outside their first meeting. Chesham's last three cup matches (excluding Forest Green) averaged over five goals each.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Forest Green vs Chesham United: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.