Harrogate Town vs Bury Predictions
FA Cup · England
Harrogate Town
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Bury
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
7.5/10Late Double Seals Harrogate Town's 3-1 FA Cup Triumph Over Bury
Harrogate Town booked their place in the next round of the FA Cup with a commanding 3-1 victory over Bury at the CNG Stadium. The hosts dominated proceedings for large stretches, opening the scoring early and maintaining pressure throughout. Despite a spirited Bury equalizer midway through the second half, Harrogate's persistence paid off with two late goals to secure a deserved win. Harrogate set the tone with an early strike in the 12th minute, controlling 57% possession and peppering the Bury goal with 22 shots, 7 of which were on target. Bury, though limited to just 6 shots, showed resilience and found a lifeline in the 68th minute. However, the home side's attacking intent was rewarded in the dying moments, with decisive goals in the 88th and 90th minutes extinguishing any hopes of a Bury upset.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
3 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
12' — Goal
Harrogate Town open the scoring to take early control.
68' — Goal
Bury equalize, briefly shifting momentum.
88' — Goal
Harrogate Town restore their lead with a late strike.
90' — Goal
Harrogate Town seal the win with a stoppage-time goal.
N/A' — Yellow Cards
Harrogate Town pick up two bookings in a competitive encounter.
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town produced a confident, attacking display, dictating the tempo with 57% possession and relentless pressure in the final third. Their 22 shots and 7 on target reflected their intent, and they matched Bury's set-piece threat with 7 corners. While a brief lapse allowed Bury to level, Harrogate responded with composure and attacking verve, sealing the result with two late goals. Defensively, Harrogate were largely untroubled aside from Bury's isolated attacks. The two yellow cards picked up were minor blemishes in an otherwise controlled performance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Bury
Bury showed defensive discipline for much of the match, absorbing waves of Harrogate attacks and staying in contention despite limited possession (43%). Their efficiency was notable, with 5 of their 6 shots testing the Harrogate goalkeeper. The visitors' resilience paid off with an equalizer in the 68th minute, briefly swinging momentum in their favor. However, Bury struggled to maintain their foothold as Harrogate increased the tempo late on. Their inability to contain Harrogate's late surge ultimately proved costly, and their lack of attacking threat limited their chances of an upset.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Harrogate Town set up to control the midfield and dictate play, utilizing their 57% possession to stretch Bury's defensive lines. Their attacking approach yielded 22 shots, as they frequently pushed fullbacks high and overloaded wide areas, resulting in 7 corners. The home side's pressing forced Bury into hurried clearances and limited their ability to build from the back. Bury, likely deploying a compact shape, focused on containment and counter-attacks. Their efficiency in front of goal was impressive, with 5 of 6 shots on target, but the lack of sustained possession left them vulnerable to Harrogate's late onslaught. Both teams matched each other on set pieces, but Harrogate's superior attacking depth proved decisive in the closing stages.
Turning Point
Harrogate Town's 88th-minute goal, which broke the deadlock and deflated Bury's resistance.
Man of the Match
Harrogate Town goalscorer (88')
Scored the crucial late goal that swung the match decisively in Harrogate's favor.
Harrogate Town vs Bury: Match Preview
Harrogate Town enter this FA Cup replay after a 1-1 draw away at Bury, extending a five-match unbeaten run that includes four wins and a draw. Their recent form is underpinned by a strong defensive record—three clean sheets in the last five—and a balanced attack that has failed to score just once in that span. Bury, meanwhile, arrive off the back of a prolific cup run, scoring 16 goals in four matches and maintaining an unbeaten record, though most of their fixtures have come at home.
Statistically, this tie pits Harrogate’s recent defensive discipline (0.4 goals conceded per game last five) against Bury’s aggressive attacking output (4.0 goals per game in the FA Cup, 2.2 in their last five overall). While Harrogate’s shot and possession numbers are modest, they have shown efficiency in front of goal, particularly at home. Bury’s defensive record is less robust, with just one clean sheet in their last five and BTTS landing in four of those matches. The first meeting saw both teams score before half-time, suggesting early attacking intent.
The model expects a match with goals, forecasting a 2-1 away win for Bury based on their superior scoring rate and Harrogate’s tendency to concede in cup ties. However, Harrogate’s home resilience and the lack of away FA Cup data for Bury inject uncertainty. The most likely scenario is a closely fought contest with both teams on the scoresheet, but Bury’s firepower giving them the edge.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Harrogate Town vs Bury Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Harrogate Town vs Bury that most previews miss.
- 1Bury’s FA Cup matches have averaged 4.75 goals, with three of four going over 2.5 goals.
- 2Harrogate have scored in every one of their last five matches, with a 2.0 goals per game average.
- 3BTTS has landed in four of Bury’s last five, but they have managed only one clean sheet in that period.
Who do you think wins: Harrogate Town vs Bury?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Harrogate Town vs Bury(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have averaged over 2 goals scored per game in their last five, and Bury’s season over 2.5 rate sits at 75%. The model gives a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals, above a typical market baseline for this level.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Bury Win
Bury’s season scoring rate (4.0 per game, albeit inflated by early rounds) and unbeaten run give them a 42% win probability away, compared to Harrogate’s 27% at home. The recent H2H draw tempers confidence, but Bury’s attacking numbers edge it.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 4 of Bury’s last 5 and 2 of Harrogate’s last 5, with both teams showing attacking intent and defensive concessions. The model assigns a 57% probability to both teams scoring.
Read more ↓
More FA Cup Predictions
The Case For This Harrogate Town vs Bury Prediction
This replay is shaped by Bury’s prolific attack and Harrogate’s recent defensive solidity, with both teams having shown enough in the first meeting (1-1) to suggest another competitive contest. Bury’s high-scoring cup run is offset by a lack of away data, while Harrogate’s win streak before the draw signals resilience.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →BTTS has occurred in 4 of Bury’s last 5 matches.
Attack
- →Bury average 4.0 goals scored per game this FA Cup campaign, with a 75% over 2.5 rate.
Defence
- →Harrogate have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 but conceded in both recent cup ties.
🚩 Harrogate Town vs Bury Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Harrogate Town and 5 for Bury, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 45%.
How Harrogate Town and Bury Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Harrogate Town vs Bury Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Harrogate Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Harrogate Town are unbeaten in their last five matches, winning four and drawing one, and have kept three clean sheets in that span. Bury, meanwhile, have scored 16 goals in four FA Cup matches and are also unbeaten, but have conceded in four of their last five. Both teams arrive with momentum, but Bury’s attack has been notably more prolific.
Harrogate Town vs Bury — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Harrogate Town vs Bury
The only previous meeting between these sides ended 1-1 just days ago, with both teams scoring in the first half. No clear pattern or dominance emerges from the head-to-head, but the recent draw suggests another competitive matchup.
Harrogate Town vs Bury Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Harrogate Town wins
1
Draws
0
Bury wins
Things to Watch: Harrogate Town vs Bury
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Bury have not played an away FA Cup match this season, adding volatility to their away probabilities.
- ⚠️Standings and detailed season-long home/away splits are missing for both teams.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Harrogate Town 1–2 BuryThe model projects a 2-1 win for Bury, driven by their 4.0 goals per game average in this competition and consistent attacking output. The main risk is Bury’s lack of away FA Cup data and Harrogate’s recent defensive performances at home, which could keep the tie closer or force extra time.
Harrogate Town vs Bury: Common Questions
Who will win Harrogate Town vs Bury?
The model gives Bury a 42% chance of winning in regulation, compared to 27% for Harrogate and 31% for a draw. Bury’s attacking numbers, including 16 goals in four FA Cup matches, are the key factor.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Bury?
There is a 57% probability of both teams scoring, supported by BTTS landing in four of Bury’s last five matches and both sides scoring in the initial 1-1 draw.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Harrogate Town vs Bury?
The model estimates a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals, with Bury’s FA Cup games averaging 4.75 goals and Harrogate averaging 2.0 scored per game in their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Harrogate Town vs Bury: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.