Fulham vs Newcastle Predictions
Premier League · England
Fulham
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Newcastle
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.5(+12% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Late Drama at Craven Cottage as Fulham and Newcastle Share the Spoils
Fulham and Newcastle played out an entertaining 1-1 draw at Craven Cottage, with both sides finding the net in a frantic final ten minutes. After a cagey opening hour, Newcastle broke the deadlock in the 80th minute, only for Fulham to respond just three minutes later, ensuring the points were shared in a match that ebbed and flowed throughout. Fulham dominated possession with 58% and matched Newcastle's attacking output, both sides registering five shots on target. Despite their control, the hosts struggled to break down a disciplined Newcastle defence until late on, while the visitors were clinical when their chance arrived but ultimately couldn’t hold on for the win.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
80' — Goal
W. Osula put Newcastle ahead against the run of play, finishing a swift counterattack.
83' — Goal
Gonzalo García equalised for Fulham, capping a period of sustained pressure.
67' — Yellow Card
Newcastle picked up their first booking, reflecting their increasing defensive aggression.
74' — Yellow Card
Second Newcastle player booked as Fulham pressed for an equaliser.
Fulham
Fulham controlled much of the game, dictating play with 58% possession and showing patience in their build-up. Their 11 shots, five of which were on target, reflected a willingness to probe, but they often found Newcastle's back line difficult to breach. The late equaliser showcased their resilience and attacking intent, but they will rue not making their dominance count earlier. Defensively, Fulham remained disciplined, committing only nine fouls and avoiding any bookings, but were caught out on the counter for Newcastle’s opener. The response, however, was swift and spirited, ensuring they salvaged a point in front of their home fans.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Newcastle
Newcastle set up to absorb pressure and hit Fulham on the break, conceding possession but remaining compact and organised. Their 42% share of the ball did not prevent them from creating danger, as they matched Fulham with five shots on target from nine attempts. The breakthrough came in the 80th minute, a testament to their patience and opportunism. However, Newcastle’s inability to see out the final minutes cost them a valuable away win. Two yellow cards highlighted their physical approach, and while their defensive discipline was commendable for most of the match, lapses in concentration allowed Fulham back into the contest.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in 4-2-3-1 formations, but Fulham sought to impose themselves through possession and patient build-up, utilising Oscar Bobb and Joshua King to link midfield and attack. Newcastle, meanwhile, prioritised defensive solidity and looked to exploit Fulham’s high line with swift transitions, relying on the pace of W. Osula and Harvey Barnes. Substitutions and yellow cards in the second half reflected a tactical shift as Newcastle became more defensive after taking the lead, while Fulham pushed their full-backs higher and committed more men forward. The evenly matched number of corners (3 each) and shots on target (5 each) underscored the balanced nature of the contest, but Fulham’s superior ball retention forced Newcastle deeper as the match wore on.
Turning Point
Gonzalo García’s 83rd-minute equaliser, which immediately cancelled out Newcastle’s opener and shifted momentum back to Fulham.
Man of the Match
Gonzalo García
Scored the vital equaliser and was a constant threat in Fulham's attack, ensuring his side rescued a point.
Fulham vs Newcastle: Match Preview
Fulham return to Craven Cottage sitting 15th, having won back-to-back league games before a narrow League Cup exit. Their home record is modest—one win, one draw, two defeats, with six scored and seven conceded—and their recent form string of LWWLD reflects a side still searching for consistency. Newcastle, three points and seven places above, have also been erratic, alternating wins and losses in their last five and conceding 14 in eight league games.
This matchup is defined by statistical symmetry: Fulham average 1.0 scored and 1.25 conceded per game, Newcastle 1.5 for and 1.75 against, with both sides producing over 13 shots per game but struggling for efficiency. Fulham's possession edge (61.8% last five) contrasts with Newcastle's shot volume (17 per game), but both sides have failed to score in one of their last five and have kept just three clean sheets between them in that span. Set pieces could be a factor, as both average over 5.5 corners per game, and discipline will matter with both sides over two cards per match.
The model expects a contest dictated by rates rather than moments of brilliance. Fulham's home solidity is undermined by a lack of cutting edge, while Newcastle's away record is undermined by defensive lapses. The most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw, with the 1-1 scoreline reflecting the underlying numbers and the draw price offering the only clear value in the market.
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fulham vs Newcastle Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fulham vs Newcastle that most previews miss.
- 1Fulham have averaged 6.6 corners per game in their last five, while Newcastle have conceded at least 4 corners in each of their last five away matches.
- 2Despite Newcastle's H2H dominance, both teams have scored in just 2 of the last 5 meetings at Craven Cottage.
- 3Fulham's last three home league games have all finished with under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Fulham vs Newcastle?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Fulham vs Newcastle(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.56
The model assigns a 32% probability to the draw, while the market implies only 28.6%. With both sides averaging just above a goal per game and their defensive records nearly identical (Fulham 1.25 conceded, Newcastle 1.75), the most likely outcome is a low-scoring stalemate.
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The Case For This Fulham vs Newcastle Prediction
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by two sides with near-identical negative goal differences and middling home/away splits. Fulham have scored 6 and conceded 7 at Craven Cottage, while Newcastle's away record reads 6 for, 8 against. Both teams are coming off patchy form, with neither attack nor defence separating themselves from the league average. The matchup is defined by Fulham's ball retention (61.8% average possession last five) but limited cutting edge (0.8 goals per game in that stretch), against a Newcastle side that creates volume (17 shots per game last five) but has been porous away from home (2.0 conceded per away game). Set piece metrics are high on both sides—Fulham average 6.6 corners, Newcastle 5.6—suggesting a game with plenty of dead-ball situations but not necessarily end-to-end action. Cards are likely, with both sides averaging over two bookings per game. The model expects a contest of fine margins, with neither side able to sustain attacking pressure long enough to force a clear result. Rates point towards a 1-1 draw as the modal outcome, with the most plausible deviation being Newcastle's greater shot volume translating into a narrow away win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Recent H2H meetings have produced only one draw in the last ten, but both teams are currently underperforming in attack.
Defence
- →Both teams have negative goal differences and have failed to keep clean sheets in 75% (Newcastle) and 62.5% (Fulham) of matches.
Match Context
- →Fulham's home xGA and Newcastle's away xGF nearly match: 1.75 vs 1.5 per game.
🚩 Fulham vs Newcastle Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Fulham and 5.8 for Newcastle, for an expected total of 12. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (76%). Over 8.5: 84% · Over 10.5: 65%.
How Fulham and Newcastle Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fulham vs Newcastle Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fulhamlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Newcastlelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fulham have stabilised after a rocky start, winning two of their last three league matches and conceding just one goal in those wins, but were knocked out of the cup midweek. Newcastle's form is more erratic, alternating wins and losses in their last five, and their away defensive record remains a concern with eight conceded in four trips.
Fulham vs Newcastle — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 62% avg
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 55% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Fulham vs Newcastle
Newcastle have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning seven of the last ten, but Fulham did win the most recent home meeting 2-0. Draws have been rare in this fixture, with only one in the last ten, but current form and defensive numbers suggest a closer contest this time.
Fulham vs Newcastle Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Fulham wins
0
Draws
7
Newcastle wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Fulham vs Newcastle
The model finds the draw at 3.5 to be the standout value, with a probability edge of +12%. Other markets, such as BTTS and over 2.5 goals, are closely aligned with the odds and do not offer positive expected value. The safest statistical angle is the stalemate, given the underlying rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Fulham vs Newcastle
- ⚠️Small sample size on Fulham's recent clean sheets; only two in last five.
- ⚠️Newcastle's away defence has been inconsistent, conceding 4 to Coventry but keeping Palace scoreless.
- ⚠️H2H trend favours Newcastle, but current form and rates suggest a more balanced contest.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fulham 1–1 NewcastleThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' season-long scoring and concession rates and their recent inability to separate themselves from the league average. The single strongest data point is the near-parity in home/away goal differences and shot volumes. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Newcastle's high shot output finally converts at a better rate, swinging the match in their favour.
Fulham vs Newcastle: Common Questions
Who will win Fulham vs Newcastle?
The model gives Fulham a 36% chance, Newcastle a 32% chance, and a draw 32%. With both sides averaging just over a goal scored and conceded per game, the most likely outcome is a draw.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Newcastle?
Both teams to score is rated at 59%, with both sides averaging over one goal conceded per game and each failing to score only once in their last five matches.
Is there value in betting the draw in Fulham vs Newcastle?
Yes, the draw is priced at 3.5 (28.6% implied), while the model assigns a 32% chance, giving a +12% edge. With both teams' rates pointing towards a stalemate, this is the clearest value in the market.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fulham vs Newcastle: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.