Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Predictions
Premier League · Egypt
Ghazl El Mehalla
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 0 - 1
Al Ittihad
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 1.06
Match Result
7/10Late Drama: Ghazl El Mehalla Snatch Win with 90th-Minute Strike Despite Red Card
Ghazl El Mehalla produced a dramatic finish at El-Gazel Stadium, clinching a 1-0 victory over Al Ittihad thanks to a stoppage-time winner. The hosts, reduced to ten men after a second-half red card, held their nerve in a tense, hard-fought contest that saw both sides struggle to create clear-cut chances. Despite Al Ittihad's 55% possession and greater territorial control, they managed just one shot on target, failing to capitalize on their numerical advantage. Ghazl El Mehalla, meanwhile, defended resolutely and seized their moment at the death, sending the home crowd into raptures with a 90th-minute goal.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
65' — Red Card
Ghazl El Mehalla reduced to ten men after a sending off, shifting momentum to Al Ittihad.
90' — Goal
Jimmy Emmanuel Mwanga scores the decisive goal, sealing a dramatic win for the hosts.
Ghazl El Mehalla
Ghazl El Mehalla put in a gritty, disciplined display, showing remarkable resilience after going down to ten men. They were out-possessed (45%) and had fewer corners, but their defensive organization limited Al Ittihad to just one shot on target. The hosts managed only two shots on target themselves, but crucially converted one in the dying moments, demonstrating clinical finishing under pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al Ittihad
Al Ittihad controlled possession and territory for much of the match, but their attacking play lacked penetration. Despite having an extra man for a significant period and winning more corners (6), they struggled to break down a determined Mehalla defense and managed just one shot on target. Their inability to turn dominance into goals proved costly in the end.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up with compact shapes, prioritizing midfield control. Ghazl El Mehalla’s setup focused on defensive solidity, with four defenders and a disciplined midfield shield. After the red card, they dropped deeper, inviting pressure but maintaining a tight defensive block. Al Ittihad, enjoying more possession, pushed their full-backs higher and attempted to stretch play, but lacked incisiveness in the final third. Set pieces offered their best chances, but Mehalla’s organization held firm. Substitutions and tactical tweaks from both benches aimed to exploit the extra man or shore up defenses, but it was Mehalla’s counter-attacking threat that ultimately decided the contest.
Turning Point
The red card for Ghazl El Mehalla in the 65th minute forced them to dig deep defensively, but also galvanized their resolve, culminating in a last-gasp winner against the run of play.
Man of the Match
Jimmy Emmanuel Mwanga
Scored the match-winning goal in the 90th minute and led the line tirelessly, making the difference in a tight encounter.
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Expected goals · model says 0.45
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
12%
BTTS: Yes
19%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 0–1
Both teams have extremely low scoring rates and high draw frequencies, but Al Ittihad's marginally better away record and the recent H2H suggest a narrow away win is plausible.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.06
Both teams have under 2.5 goals in the vast majority of their matches, and the model gives a 91% chance for under 2.5 goals, making this a very likely outcome, though the value is poor at current odds.
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BTTS: No@ 1.07
Ghazl El Mehalla have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and both teams have a high frequency of clean sheets or blanks, so BTTS 'no' is highly probable, but again the value is limited.
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More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Prediction
This fixture features two of the lowest-scoring sides in the league, both struggling for wins and heavily reliant on defensive solidity. Ghazl El Mehalla's home matches are almost exclusively low-scoring draws, while Al Ittihad have a slightly better away record but are also winless on the road in the current split. The head-to-head history is dominated by draws and under 2.5 goal outcomes, suggesting another tight, cagey affair is likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Ghazl El Mehalla's season home record: 2 wins, 12 draws, 1 loss, just 6 goals scored and conceded.
- →Ghazl El Mehalla average just 0.73 goals scored per game, with a 53% clean sheet rate.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Match Context
- →Al Ittihad's away record: 0 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss in the current split.
- →Last 10 H2H: 6 draws, 2 wins each, 7/10 under 2.5 goals, 4/10 ended 0-0 or 1-1.
How Ghazl El Mehalla and Al Ittihad Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Ghazl El Mehallalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Al Ittihadlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Ghazl El Mehalla are winless in their last 5 (LLDDD), with only 4 wins all season and a high draw rate, especially at home. Their attack has struggled, averaging just 0.8 goals per game in the last 5. Al Ittihad's recent form data is missing, but their league split shows a similar pattern of few wins and many draws, particularly away from home.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +54.84% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.0 goals/game
What History Says: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad
Draws dominate the recent head-to-head record, with 6 of the last 10 meetings ending level and most games featuring very few goals. The last 3 meetings saw two 0-0 draws and a 2-0 Al Ittihad win, underlining the defensive, low-risk nature of this fixture.
Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Ghazl El Mehalla wins
5
Draws
2
Al Ittihad wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad
There is little value in the main markets, as the bookmakers have heavily priced in the low-scoring, low-BTTS nature of these teams. The model's probabilities are closely aligned with the odds for under 2.5 goals and BTTS no, so value is minimal. The draw may offer slight value, but overall, this is a fixture best approached with caution due to limited upside.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad
- ⚠️No recent away form or last 5 match data for Al Ittihad; away stats based on standings and H2H.
- ⚠️Low attacking output from both teams increases the variance for 0-0, 1-0, or 0-1 type results.
- ⚠️Odds for main markets (U2.5, BTTS no) are very low, offering little value.
- ⚠️Limited set piece and discipline data for Al Ittihad.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ghazl El Mehalla vs Al Ittihad: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.