GIL Vicente vs Maritimo Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
GIL Vicente
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Maritimo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.2/10Late Butzke Equalizer Denies GIL Vicente in Dramatic Draw
GIL Vicente were left ruing missed chances as a stoppage-time goal from Adrián Butzke earned Maritimo a hard-fought 1-1 draw at Estadio Cidade de Barcelos. The hosts dominated much of the contest, taking an early lead through Héctor Hernández in the 7th minute and controlling 60% of possession, but failed to convert their superiority into further goals. Maritimo, on the back foot for long stretches, showed resilience and snatched a point at the death, with Butzke's 90th-minute strike punishing GIL Vicente's profligacy in front of goal. Both sides finished with a yellow card apiece in a match that saw plenty of attacking intent but ultimately ended all square.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
7' — Goal
Héctor Hernández puts GIL Vicente ahead with an early strike.
45' — Yellow Card
GIL Vicente receive their only yellow card of the match.
60' — Yellow Card
Maritimo pick up a yellow card as the game grows tense.
90' — Goal
Adrián Butzke scores a dramatic late equalizer for Maritimo.
GIL Vicente
GIL Vicente started brightly, pressing high and capitalizing early as Héctor Hernández found the net in the 7th minute. Their 60% possession and 19 total shots reflected their attacking intent, but only four of those efforts were on target, highlighting a lack of clinical finishing. Despite controlling the tempo and limiting Maritimo's attacking opportunities for much of the match, GIL Vicente could not find a decisive second goal. Defensively solid for most of the contest, the hosts were ultimately undone by a lapse in concentration in the dying moments, conceding a late equalizer that turned three points into one.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Maritimo
Maritimo weathered early pressure and found themselves behind after just seven minutes, but gradually grew into the match. Despite seeing only 40% of the ball and registering just 10 shots (three on target), they remained organized defensively and looked for opportunities on the counter. Their persistence paid off in dramatic fashion, as Adrián Butzke struck in the 90th minute to salvage a point. Maritimo's ability to stay in the game and capitalize on a late chance was a testament to their resilience and tactical discipline.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but GIL Vicente were far more proactive, pressing high and dictating the rhythm through their midfield trio. Their full-backs pushed forward, creating overloads and contributing to their 60% possession. However, Maritimo's compact defensive shape limited GIL Vicente's clear-cut chances, forcing them to shoot from distance or wide areas. Maritimo, meanwhile, sat deeper and looked to absorb pressure, relying on quick transitions and set pieces to threaten. As the match wore on, substitutions injected fresh energy, and Maritimo's late push paid off with Butzke's equalizer, highlighting their ability to exploit lapses in focus from the hosts.
Turning Point
Adrián Butzke's 90th-minute goal, which snatched a draw for Maritimo against the run of play.
Man of the Match
Adrián Butzke
His stoppage-time equalizer rescued a point for Maritimo and punished GIL Vicente's missed chances.
GIL Vicente vs Maritimo: Match Preview
GIL Vicente and Maritimo arrive level on points but with contrasting statistical profiles. GIL Vicente’s campaign has been defined by defensive control—just one goal conceded in four matches and three clean sheets—yet their attack has struggled, with only three goals scored and two blanks in the last three. Maritimo, meanwhile, have seen more volatility, shipping eight goals in five games and losing their last two, including a heavy 0-3 defeat to Benfica, but they do offer more in attack (six goals, 1.2 per game).
The tactical matchup is shaped by GIL Vicente’s ability to restrict high-quality chances, especially at home (0.33 conceded per home game), against a Maritimo side that averages 10.8 shots and 3.4 on target per game but often lacks clinical finishing. Both sides are disciplined—yellow cards per game are moderate (1.4–1.8)—and neither generates a high volume of set pieces, with corners per game below league average. Historically, GIL Vicente have had the edge in this fixture, but most matches are decided by narrow margins and low totals.
Given the underlying rates, the model projects a cautious contest with few clear-cut chances. The most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw, with a 1-1 scoreline the statistical baseline. GIL Vicente’s defensive reliability and Maritimo’s inconsistent attack point towards a match decided by small margins, with the possibility of late goals if either side is forced to chase.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS: Yes
40%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
GIL Vicente vs Maritimo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind GIL Vicente vs Maritimo that most previews miss.
- 1GIL Vicente’s matches have produced under 2.5 goals in 100% of their league games so far.
- 2Maritimo have scored in both away matches this season but have also conceded in each, averaging 1.5 goals both for and against on the road.
- 3Only one of the last five head-to-heads has seen both teams score, with three finishing under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: GIL Vicente vs Maritimo?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: GIL Vicente vs Maritimo(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 scoreline is supported by both teams’ modest scoring rates (GIL Vicente 0.75, Maritimo 1.2 goals per game) and a high draw probability (0.36), with neither side showing consistent attacking superiority.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
GIL Vicente matches have stayed under 2.5 goals in all four league games (0% over 2.5), and their defence concedes just 0.25 per game; Maritimo’s away games also average only 3 goals, supporting a low total.
Read more ↓
More Primeira Liga Predictions
The Case For This GIL Vicente vs Maritimo Prediction
This fixture projects as a low-scoring, tightly-matched contest between two sides whose underlying rates suggest little separation. GIL Vicente’s defensive solidity at home (0.33 conceded per home game, 75% clean sheet rate) is set against a Maritimo attack that averages just 1.2 goals per match and has struggled for consistency, especially away. Both teams’ recent form is mixed, with GIL Vicente’s attack blunt (three goals in four league games) and Maritimo’s defence porous (1.6 conceded per game), but neither side consistently turns their shot volume into goals. Tactically, the key battleground is whether GIL Vicente’s home defensive record can hold up against a Maritimo side that creates chances but often fails to convert. GIL Vicente average 12.2 shots and 3.4 on target per game over their last five, yet have failed to score in two of those, while Maritimo’s away defence has conceded 1.5 per game. Set-piece threat is modest—corners average 3.6 for GIL Vicente and 2.6 for Maritimo—so open play is likely to decide the outcome. Both teams are disciplined, with cards per game hovering around 1.4–1.8 yellow per match. The model expects a cautious first half, with the majority of goals (if any) likely to come after the break—GIL Vicente have scored twice before half-time in five games, Maritimo the same. Given both sides’ low over 2.5 goal rates and the high draw probability, a 1-1 result is the statistical baseline, with the game shaped by defensive reliability and a lack of clinical edge up front.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →GIL Vicente have conceded just one goal in four league games (0.25 per game), with a 75% clean sheet rate.
- →Maritimo’s away matches average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, but their overall defensive record is weak (1.6 conceded per game).
Match Context
- →Neither side has a high over 2.5 goal rate: GIL Vicente 0%, Maritimo 80% (but driven by home games).
🚩 GIL Vicente vs Maritimo Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for GIL Vicente and 4.3 for Maritimo, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How GIL Vicente and Maritimo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
GIL Vicente vs Maritimo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
GIL Vicentelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Maritimolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
GIL Vicente’s recent form is built on defensive solidity, with three clean sheets in their last four league matches but just three goals scored. Maritimo have been more erratic, alternating between scoring draws and defeats, and come in off two consecutive losses, conceding five in those games.
GIL Vicente vs Maritimo — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 71.43% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: GIL Vicente vs Maritimo
GIL Vicente have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning six of the last ten and both of the last two at home by two-goal margins. However, most encounters have been low-scoring and close, with only one of the last five producing more than two goals.
GIL Vicente vs Maritimo Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
GIL Vicente wins
2
Draws
2
Maritimo wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: GIL Vicente vs Maritimo
No bookmaker odds are available, so value analysis cannot be performed. If standard market odds are posted, under 2.5 goals and the draw would likely offer the best alignment with the model’s probabilities, given the low expected goal environment and high draw rate.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: GIL Vicente vs Maritimo
- ⚠️Small sample sizes early in the season reduce confidence in attack/defence rates.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value analysis is limited.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late changes could affect tactical setup.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
GIL Vicente 1–1 MaritimoThe model’s final call is a 1-1 draw, anchored by GIL Vicente’s defensive record (0.25 conceded per game) and Maritimo’s middling attack. The strongest data point is GIL Vicente’s 75% clean sheet rate, but the risk lies in Maritimo’s higher shot volume and the possibility that either side converts a rare chance to tip the balance.
GIL Vicente vs Maritimo: Common Questions
Who will win GIL Vicente vs Maritimo?
The model gives GIL Vicente a 38% chance of victory, Maritimo 26%, and the draw 36%. Both teams have similar points and underlying rates, so a draw is the likeliest outcome.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in GIL Vicente vs Maritimo?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 64% probability. GIL Vicente’s matches have all finished under 2.5 goals this season, and both sides have struggled for attacking consistency.
Are both teams likely to score in GIL Vicente vs Maritimo?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with a slight lean towards 'no' (52%). GIL Vicente have kept three clean sheets in four, but Maritimo have scored in four of five league games.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for GIL Vicente vs Maritimo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.