Girona vs Mallorca Predictions
La Liga · Spain
Girona
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Mallorca
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Draw or Mallorca
@ 1.85(+22% edge)
Match Result
6.5/10Mallorca Edge Girona With First-Half Strike in Tight Montilivi Contest
Mallorca claimed a vital away win at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, edging Girona 1-0 in a closely contested La Liga encounter. The only goal of the match arrived just before half-time, with Mallorca capitalizing on a rare opening in an otherwise cagey affair. Girona, despite their attacking intent and tactical adjustments, were unable to break down a resolute Mallorca defense, ultimately succumbing to frustration as the visitors managed the game expertly in the second half. Both sides set up with contrasting formations—Girona opting for a 4-2-3-1 to maximize midfield control, while Mallorca deployed a compact 4-3-1-2, seeking to congest the center and hit on the counter. The match was marked by physicality, with five yellow cards shown as tempers flared and neither side gave an inch. Ultimately, Mallorca's discipline and defensive organization proved decisive, allowing them to hold on for all three points.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
43' — Goal
Mallorca break the deadlock with a well-worked move, taking a 1-0 lead just before half-time.
First half' — Yellow cards
Physical contest results in multiple bookings, setting a combative tone.
Second half' — Girona substitutions
Girona make attacking changes in search of an equalizer, but Mallorca hold firm.
Late second half' — Mallorca yellow card
Mallorca pick up a late booking as they defend their lead with determination.
Girona
Girona started brightly, dictating much of the early play with their 4-2-3-1 setup, but struggled to create clear-cut chances against Mallorca's deep block. The midfield pairing of F. Beltran and A. Witsel provided stability, while V. Tsygankov and A. Ounahi sought to inject creativity. However, Girona's attacking efforts were stifled, and frustration grew as the match wore on, culminating in three yellow cards for the hosts. Despite tactical tweaks and increased urgency after falling behind, Girona could not find a way past Mallorca's disciplined backline.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Mallorca
Mallorca executed their game plan to perfection, sitting deep in a 4-3-1-2 and frustrating Girona throughout. The visitors struck at a crucial moment just before the break, then expertly managed the tempo in the second half, absorbing pressure and maintaining their composure. Defensive discipline was key, with only two yellow cards picked up and no major lapses at the back. Mallorca's midfield trio worked tirelessly to disrupt Girona's rhythm, while their forwards pressed intelligently when opportunities arose.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Girona's 4-2-3-1 formation was designed to dominate possession and control the midfield, but they struggled to penetrate Mallorca's compact 4-3-1-2. The visitors' narrow shape limited space between the lines, forcing Girona wide where their delivery lacked precision. Mallorca's midfield trio worked cohesively to disrupt Girona's build-up, while the full-backs remained disciplined, rarely venturing forward. After scoring, Mallorca dropped deeper, focusing on defensive solidity and relying on structured pressing to prevent Girona from building momentum. Tactical substitutions from Girona aimed to inject attacking impetus, but Mallorca's organization and game management prevailed.
Turning Point
Mallorca's goal in the 43rd minute shifted the momentum, allowing them to sit deep and defend their lead for the remainder of the match.
Man of the Match
O. Mascarell
Marshalled the Mallorca defense superbly, leading by example and ensuring Girona were kept at bay.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Girona vs Mallorca Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Girona vs Mallorca?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Girona vs Mallorca(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Double Chance: Draw or Mallorca@ 1.85
Mallorca's away form is poor, but Girona are inconsistent at home, and Mallorca's recent form (DWWLW) is stronger than Girona's (LDWLW). The model gives X2 a 76% probability, well above typical odds.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.85
Both teams average over 1 goal scored and 1.5 conceded per game, and 4 of Mallorca's last 5 and 2 of Girona's last 5 saw BTTS. H2H also supports goals for both.
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Match Result: Mallorca Win@ 2.9
Mallorca's overall form and attacking stats are superior, and they have a strong H2H record away at Girona. Value at these odds, but away win risk is higher due to Mallorca's away record.
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More La Liga Predictions
The Case For This Girona vs Mallorca Prediction
This is a mid-table La Liga clash between Girona and Mallorca, with both sides seeking to finish the season strongly and avoid being dragged into a late relegation battle. Girona have been inconsistent at home, while Mallorca, despite a poor away record, are in better recent form and have shown improved attacking output. Both teams concede regularly, and H2H history suggests goals are likely. Mallorca's stronger recent form and Girona's defensive vulnerabilities suggest the visitors are more likely to get a result, but a close, competitive match is expected.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Mallorca are unbeaten in their last 3 and have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
- →Mallorca's away record is poor (1 win in 15), but their recent form is much improved.
- →Mallorca have scored in all of their last 5 matches.
- →H2H: Mallorca have won 5 of last 10 meetings, including 2 of last 3 at Girona.
Defence
- →Girona have only 2 wins in their last 5 and have conceded in 4 of those.
- →Both teams average over 1.5 goals conceded per game.
Match Context
- →Girona's home record is mediocre (6W 4D 6L, 19:24 GF:GA).
🚩 Girona vs Mallorca Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Girona and 4.2 for Mallorca, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Girona and Mallorca Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Girona vs Mallorca Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Gironalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Mallorcalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Girona vs Mallorca — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Girona vs Mallorca
Girona vs Mallorca Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Girona wins
1
Draws
5
Mallorca wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Girona vs Mallorca
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Girona vs Mallorca
- ⚠️Mallorca's away form is a major risk factor (1 win in 15 away).
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent and have defensive weaknesses.
- ⚠️No odds data for many markets; value calculations are estimates.
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries are unknown at time of analysis.
- ⚠️Motivation may be variable with both teams mid-table.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Girona vs Mallorca: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.