Girona vs Mallorca Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Girona
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Mallorca
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Girona vs Mallorca
Girona vs Mallorca: Match Preview
Both Girona and Mallorca enter this fixture level on 13 points, occupying third and fourth in the table, but their routes to this position differ sharply. Girona have the division's most prolific attack with 14 goals from seven, including a 5-2 home win over Las Palmas, but have also shown defensive frailty, conceding in five of seven. Mallorca, meanwhile, boast the best defensive record in the league—just two goals conceded in six—and have kept four clean sheets in their last five, though their away attack has produced only one goal in three games.
Statistically, this is a contest between Girona's shot-heavy, high-tempo attack (13.6 shots, 5.2 on target per match in the last five) and Mallorca's disciplined, possession-based defence (averaging 56% possession, 0.4 goals conceded in the last five). Girona have scored in every home match but one, while Mallorca's away fixtures have all featured under 2.5 goals, with only one goal scored by the visitors. The first half is likely to be cagey—Girona's last five have produced just seven first-half goals combined, and Mallorca have conceded only once before the break all season. Set-piece threat is moderate, and both sides average above two yellow cards per game, so a slightly elevated card count is possible.
The model expects a low-scoring, tactical battle, with Girona's attack blunted by Mallorca's structure and the visitors content to keep the game tight. A 1-1 draw is the likeliest scoreline, with under 2.5 goals and 'No' on BTTS both showing value from the underlying rates. Girona's home edge is offset by Mallorca's defensive reliability, making a share of the points the statistical baseline.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
28%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Girona vs Mallorca Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Girona vs Mallorca that most previews miss.
- 1Mallorca's away matches have averaged just 1.0 total goal per game this season (1 scored, 2 conceded in three matches).
- 2Girona have scored in every home match but one, but have kept only two clean sheets in their last five overall.
- 3Only one of the last five head-to-heads saw both teams score, with four of those decided by a single goal.
Who do you think wins: Girona vs Mallorca?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Girona vs Mallorca(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Girona's home matches average 2.25 goals, but Mallorca's away games have produced just three goals in total across three matches (1 for, 2 against). Mallorca's season over 2.5 rate is only 16.7%, and their defence leads the division with 83% clean sheets.
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BTTS: No
Mallorca have kept four clean sheets in their last five and have not had a BTTS game all season. Girona have failed to score only once, but Mallorca's defensive record and away approach point to a low BTTS probability.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Girona vs Mallorca Prediction
This is a clash between two top-four sides with identical points tallies (13) but contrasting statistical profiles. Girona arrive with the division's most productive attack (2.0 goals per game) but a middling home record defensively, while Mallorca have built their start on the league's stingiest defence, conceding just twice in six matches and keeping clean sheets in five of them. Both sides have won their last two, but Mallorca's away record is far less imposing than their perfect home form. The matchup is defined by Girona's high shot volume (13.6 per game, 5.2 on target) against a Mallorca side that allows just 0.33 goals per game and has only conceded in one of six matches. Mallorca's away games average just one goal per match, and their last five show a recurring pattern of low-scoring, controlled contests. Girona's attack has been more effective at home, but their 1.25 goals conceded per home game suggests vulnerabilities. Set-piece threat is moderate on both sides, with corners averaging just above three per team per match, and disciplinary numbers hint at a slightly above-average card count. With Mallorca's defensive rate dragging down the goal expectation and Girona's home attack still likely to test them, the model points to a low-scoring draw as the modal outcome. The most likely deviation comes if Girona break through early, forcing Mallorca to open up, but the underlying rates suggest a tactical stalemate is more probable.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Mallorca's season-long defensive record: 0.33 goals conceded per game, 83% clean sheet rate.
- →Girona average 2.0 goals scored per game, but concede 1.14 per match.
Match Context
- →Mallorca's away matches have produced just three total goals in three games.
🚩 Girona vs Mallorca Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Girona and 4.5 for Mallorca, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Girona and Mallorca Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Girona vs Mallorca Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Gironalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mallorcalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Girona have won four of their last five, including back-to-back victories over Albacete and Cadiz, and have scored at least twice in four of those matches. Mallorca are also on a two-game winning streak and have conceded only once in their last five, with four clean sheets and just one defeat all season. Both teams are among the league's form sides, but Mallorca's defensive numbers are the standout.
Girona vs Mallorca — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +83.33% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Girona vs Mallorca
The last ten meetings are narrowly in Mallorca's favour (five wins to Girona's four), but the recent pattern is of tight games—four of the last five decided by a single goal. Only one of those five saw both teams score, and the last match at Montilivi ended 1-0 to Mallorca.
Girona vs Mallorca Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Girona wins
1
Draws
5
Mallorca wins
Things to Watch: Girona vs Mallorca
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value bets cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Small sample size on Mallorca's away record (three matches).
- ⚠️Both teams are in good form; a single early goal could shift the tactical balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Girona 1–1 MallorcaA 1-1 draw is the statistical baseline, driven by Mallorca's exceptional defensive record (0.33 goals conceded per game) and Girona's consistent attacking output at home. The strongest data point is Mallorca's 83% clean sheet rate, but Girona's shot volume and home scoring record make it unlikely the visitors shut them out entirely. The main risk comes from an early Girona breakthrough, which could force Mallorca to abandon their conservative approach.
Girona vs Mallorca: Common Questions
Who will win Girona vs Mallorca?
The model gives Girona a 36% chance of victory, Mallorca a 28% chance, and a draw is the most likely outcome at 36%. Both sides are in strong form, but Mallorca's defensive record and low-scoring away matches point to a tight contest.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Mallorca?
Both teams to score is rated at just 42%, with 'No' the more likely outcome (58%). Mallorca have not had a BTTS game all season and have kept four clean sheets in their last five.
How many goals are expected in Girona vs Mallorca?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 68% probability. Girona's home matches average 2.25 goals, but Mallorca's away games have seen just three total goals in three matches, making a low-scoring match statistically likely.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Girona vs Mallorca: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 27 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.