Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Granada CF
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 2
Sporting Gijon
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
Match Result
7.2/10Late Drama as Sporting Gijón Stun Granada with Last-Gasp Winner
Sporting Gijón pulled off a dramatic 2-1 victory over Granada CF at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, clinching all three points with a stoppage-time goal. Granada struck early, but Sporting clawed their way back, equalizing on the stroke of halftime and then delivering a crushing blow in the dying moments. The hosts dominated possession with 59% and looked in control for large stretches, but Sporting’s resilience and clinical finishing proved decisive. Granada’s early opener set the tone, but their inability to convert further chances—despite registering 10 shots and 3 on target—left the door open. Sporting, meanwhile, made the most of their opportunities, scoring twice from just 2 shots on target, and defended resolutely under pressure. The match was a tale of missed chances for Granada and ruthless efficiency for the visitors.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results3/3 hit
Key Moments
2' — Goal
J. Pascual opens the scoring for Granada with an early strike.
45' — Goal
C. Gelabert Pina equalizes for Sporting Gijón just before halftime.
90' — Goal
J. Otero scores a dramatic stoppage-time winner for Sporting.
1st Half' — Yellow Card
Sporting Gijón pick up two yellow cards as the intensity rises.
2nd Half' — Yellow Card
Granada CF receive a yellow card while chasing the winner.
Granada CF
Granada CF started brightly, finding the net within the opening two minutes and controlling much of the first half with composed possession and midfield dominance. Their 4-1-4-1 formation allowed them to dictate play, but they struggled to break down Sporting’s defense after the opener. Despite creating 10 shots, only three tested the goalkeeper, highlighting a lack of cutting edge in the final third. After conceding an equalizer just before halftime, Granada pushed forward in the second half but were repeatedly frustrated by Sporting’s disciplined back line and their own inefficiency. A late lapse in concentration proved costly as they conceded the winner in stoppage time, leaving them to rue missed opportunities.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijón weathered an early storm and grew into the contest, showing discipline and organization in their 4-3-3 setup. Despite seeing less of the ball (41% possession), they remained compact and dangerous on the break. Their patience paid off with a crucial equalizer on the stroke of halftime, shifting the momentum in their favor. In the second half, Sporting absorbed pressure and looked for opportunities on set pieces and counters, eventually finding the winner in stoppage time. Their efficiency in front of goal—scoring twice from just two shots on target—and defensive resilience underlined a well-executed away performance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Granada deployed a 4-1-4-1 formation, seeking to dominate the midfield and control possession, which they did with 59%. Their wide midfielders and fullbacks pushed high, but Sporting’s compact 4-3-3 shape limited clear-cut chances. Sporting Gijón, meanwhile, focused on defensive solidity and quick transitions, utilizing their front three to stretch Granada’s back line on the counter. Set pieces were a notable weapon for Sporting, as evidenced by their five corners. Substitutions and tactical tweaks in the second half saw both sides seeking a winner, but Sporting’s discipline and opportunism on the break ultimately proved decisive. Granada’s inability to convert possession into meaningful chances left them vulnerable to the sucker punch they eventually suffered.
Turning Point
J. Otero’s stoppage-time goal, capitalizing on a rare Sporting attack, snatched victory and broke Granada’s resistance.
Man of the Match
J. Otero
Delivered the decisive blow with a 90th-minute winner, capping a clinical away performance.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Sporting Gijon Win
Sporting Gijon have shown stronger recent form, scoring more goals and failing to score in none of their last five, while Granada are on a two-game losing streak and have struggled offensively. Gijon's away record is weak, but Granada's home form is also middling, making the away win a slight value lean if odds are generous.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams average over 1.2 goals per game this season, and Sporting Gijon have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5. Granada's defense has been leaky recently, conceding 2+ in 3 of 5.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams' recent matches have trended toward goals, with Sporting Gijon averaging 2 scored and 1.6 conceded in the last 5, and both teams above 40% for season over 2.5 matches.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon Prediction
Granada CF host Sporting Gijon in a mid-table Segunda clash with both sides looking to finish the season on a positive note. Sporting arrive with momentum after a convincing away win and have been more consistent in attack, while Granada are struggling for form and goals, especially at home. Expect a competitive match where Sporting's superior recent scoring edge could prove decisive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Granada have lost 4 of their last 5, scoring just 4 goals and failing to score twice.
- →Sporting Gijon have scored in all of their last 5, averaging 2 goals per game.
Match Context
- →Granada's home record is average (6W 8D 6L), while Sporting's away record is poor (6W 1D 13L), but their recent away win at Zaragoza is encouraging.
- →Head-to-head has favored away teams recently and rarely ends in a draw.
- →Both teams have over 40% of matches going over 2.5 goals this season.
🚩 Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Granada CF and 3.8 for Sporting Gijon, for an expected total of 7.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (74%). Over 8.5: 38% · Over 10.5: 17%.
How Granada CF and Sporting Gijon Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Granada CFlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Sporting Gijonlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Granada CF are struggling for form, losing four of their last five and scoring only once in their last two matches. Sporting Gijon, meanwhile, have bounced back from a losing streak with an impressive 3-1 away win at Zaragoza, and have found the net in every recent outing, indicating stronger attacking momentum.
Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 55% avg
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon
The head-to-head record shows a clear trend toward away wins, with Sporting Gijon taking six of the last ten meetings and draws being notably absent. Recent clashes have generally been competitive, but Sporting's ability to win on the road in this fixture is a notable pattern.
Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Granada CF wins
0
Draws
6
Sporting Gijon wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon
Without bookmaker odds, value cannot be precisely determined, but model probabilities suggest Sporting Gijon are slightly undervalued by public perception due to their poor away record, while BTTS and over 2.5 goals are also likely if odds are attractive. If odds for Sporting or BTTS are above 2.50, these would represent potential value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession) are missing for Sporting, reducing confidence in attack/defense estimates.
- ⚠️Both teams are mid-table and may lack motivation, increasing unpredictability.
- ⚠️Lineups not available at time of prediction—late changes could impact outcome.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Granada CF vs Sporting Gijon: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 23 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.