Eibar vs Las Palmas Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Eibar
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 0
Las Palmas
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Eibar Win
Match Result
8.3/10Eibar Edge Las Palmas 3-2 in Five-Goal Thriller at Ipurua
Eibar secured a pulsating 3-2 victory over Las Palmas at Ipurua Municipal Stadium, surviving a late scare and a flurry of cards in a Segunda División clash that had everything. The hosts raced into a 2-0 lead inside the opening ten minutes, with goals in the 6th and 9th minutes, but Las Palmas clawed their way back, reducing the deficit before halftime and pushing hard late on despite finishing with ten men. Eibar looked in control for much of the match, especially after restoring their two-goal cushion in the 62nd minute. However, Las Palmas refused to go quietly, pulling one back in the 85th minute and piling on pressure in the closing stages. Ultimately, Eibar's early attacking verve and disciplined finish saw them claim all three points in a match marked by Las Palmas's disciplinary woes—seven yellow cards and a red hampering their comeback hopes.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
3 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
6' — Goal
Eibar open the scoring with a well-worked move finished by Javi Martón.
9' — Goal
Eibar double their lead, capitalizing on Las Palmas's shaky start.
24' — Goal
Jesé pulls one back for Las Palmas, shifting momentum.
62' — Goal
Eibar restore their two-goal advantage, easing nerves at Ipurua.
85' — Goal
Manu Fuster scores to make it 3-2, setting up a nervy finale.
various' — Cards
Las Palmas collect seven yellow cards and a red, hampering their comeback.
Eibar
Eibar started at a blistering pace, netting twice within the first ten minutes, which set the tone for their assertive display. They matched Las Palmas for possession (49%) but were more incisive in the final third, registering 18 shots with 6 on target. Their ability to capitalize on early chances and maintain composure under late pressure proved decisive. Defensively, Eibar kept their discipline, conceding just six fouls and avoiding any bookings. The midfield duo of Aleix Garrido and Ander Madariaga provided stability, while Javi Martón led the line with energy and threat.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Las Palmas
Las Palmas showed resilience after going two goals down early, slowly regaining composure and possession (51%). They managed 11 shots, with 5 on target, and found the net twice—once in the 24th and again in the 85th minute to keep the contest alive. However, their aggressive approach cost them dearly, as they amassed seven yellow cards and a red, undermining their late push for an equalizer. Despite flashes of quality from Jesé and Manu Fuster up front, Las Palmas struggled to contain Eibar's early tempo and paid the price for their indiscipline, which left them short-handed in the crucial final minutes.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Eibar lined up in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on early pressing and quick transitions through their attacking midfield trio. Their full-backs, particularly Álvaro Rodríguez and Juan Bernat, provided width, while the double pivot shielded the defense and recycled possession effectively. Eibar's high tempo in the opening stages caught Las Palmas off guard, leading to two early goals. Las Palmas opted for a 4-4-2, seeking to control possession and exploit the flanks. However, their midfield was often overrun in the first half, forcing them into fouls and bookings. As the game progressed, Las Palmas pushed higher, but their lack of discipline and eventual red card limited their ability to capitalize on late momentum. Set pieces were a missed opportunity for Las Palmas, with just one corner compared to Eibar's six.
Turning Point
Eibar's third goal in the 62nd minute, which restored their two-goal lead and ultimately proved decisive as Las Palmas mounted a late surge.
Man of the Match
Javi Martón
Set the tone with an early goal and led the line with relentless energy, causing constant problems for the Las Palmas defense.
Eibar vs Las Palmas: Match Preview
Eibar come into this fixture riding a five-match winning streak, the longest in the Segunda División, and have surged to second in the table with 15 points from six games. Their recent run has seen them dispatch Eldense, Celta de Vigo II, and Granada CF with a combined scoreline of 9-1, and their only blemish was an opening defeat to Tenerife. Las Palmas, meanwhile, sit fifth after a mixed start—three wins, a draw, and a heavy 5-2 loss at Girona. While they have picked up two away wins, their performances have lacked the defensive consistency of their hosts.
The tactical battle here tilts towards Eibar's disciplined 4-2-3-1, which has delivered four clean sheets in five and an average of 2.2 goals per game in that stretch. Their defensive line has been particularly effective early, with seven first-half goals scored and just one conceded in their last five. Las Palmas have shown more attacking intent after the break, with five of their last seven goals coming in the second half, but their away defence has looked vulnerable—conceding five in their last three road trips. Set-piece threat is limited for both sides, with Eibar averaging just 2.2 corners per game recently, but their ability to capitalise on early momentum could prove decisive.
Given Eibar's current trajectory and their proven ability to control matches from the outset, the model expects them to assert themselves early and maintain defensive discipline throughout. Las Palmas may struggle to break through unless they can lift their first-half output, and the most likely outcome is a low-scoring home win built on Eibar's form and organisation.
How Eibar and Las Palmas Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Eibar vs Las Palmas Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Eibarlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Las Palmaslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Eibar are the form side in the division, rattling off five consecutive wins and conceding just once in that time. Their momentum has been built on defensive solidity and early goals, with no sign of a let-up. Las Palmas, by contrast, have alternated between wins and setbacks, picking up two away victories but also shipping five goals at Girona and drawing a blank at home to Leganes.
Eibar vs Las Palmas — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +5/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +60% clean sheet rate this season
Eibar vs Las Palmas Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Eibar vs Las Palmas that most previews miss.
- 1Eibar have scored first in each of their last five matches, with seven of their 11 recent goals coming before half-time.
- 2Las Palmas have failed to score in the first half in four of their last five matches, but have netted five times after the break in that span.
- 3Only one of the last five meetings at Ipurua produced over 2.5 goals, with three ending in home wins to nil.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Eibar vs Las Palmas?
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The Case For This Eibar vs Las Palmas Prediction
Eibar arrive at Ipurua with a tidal wave of momentum, riding a five-match winning streak in which they've conceded just once and scored 11 times. Las Palmas, though fifth and unbeaten in their last two away games, have not matched Eibar's consistency and have shown defensive frailties, particularly in their 5-2 defeat at Girona. The hosts' form string is the longest active streak in the division, while Las Palmas have alternated results with less conviction. Statistically, this is a clash between the league's most in-form defence and a Las Palmas side that has found the net in four of their last five, but often after the break. Eibar's average of 2.2 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded per game across their last five is underpinned by four clean sheets and a habit of striking early—seven of their last 11 goals have come in the first half. Las Palmas, meanwhile, average just 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in that same span, with a heavier second-half output but less control in the opening period. The model expects Eibar's defensive solidity and early pressure to set the tone, with Las Palmas struggling to create high-quality chances against a disciplined back line. Unless Las Palmas can dramatically improve their first-half threat, Eibar's momentum and home advantage should carry them to another clean sheet win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Eibar's five-match winning streak, conceding just one goal in that run.
- →Las Palmas have conceded five goals in their last three away matches.
- →Eibar have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches.
Where the Model Sees Value: Eibar vs Las Palmas(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Eibar Win
Eibar have won five consecutive matches, conceding just one goal in that stretch, and their form string (WWWWW) is the strongest in the league. Las Palmas have been solid away but have conceded five in their last three road games and face a home side averaging 2.2 goals per game across their last five.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
Eibar have kept four clean sheets in their last five and have not failed to score in any of those matches. Las Palmas have only failed to score once recently but have struggled to break down top defences, and Eibar's defensive numbers (0.2 goals conceded per game in last five) are elite.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Despite Eibar's attacking run, both teams have seen a majority of their recent games finish under 2.5 goals (Las Palmas 60% under, Eibar's home games 67% under), and both are among the league's top five for clean sheet percentage.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
🚩 Eibar vs Las Palmas Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Eibar and 4.8 for Las Palmas, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 55% · Over 10.5: 30%.
What History Says: Eibar vs Las Palmas
Eibar have had the better of recent head-to-heads at Ipurua, winning three of the last four meetings on home soil, including a 3-1 victory in March 2026. Only four of the last ten matchups have seen both teams score, and draws have been rare in this fixture.
Eibar vs Las Palmas Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Eibar wins
2
Draws
3
Las Palmas wins
Things to Watch: Eibar vs Las Palmas
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Early-season sample sizes are small; both teams could regress to their season averages.
- ⚠️Las Palmas have shown some away resilience, winning two of three on the road.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Eibar 2–0 Las PalmasEibar's five-match winning streak, underpinned by four clean sheets and a 2.2 goals per game average, is the single strongest indicator for this fixture. The predicted 2-0 scoreline reflects their recent dominance and Las Palmas' tendency to start slowly on the road. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Las Palmas' second-half attacking surge finds a way through, or if Eibar's early-season momentum proves unsustainable against a top-five rival.
Eibar vs Las Palmas: Common Questions
Who will win Eibar vs Las Palmas?
The model gives Eibar a 52% probability of victory, with a 32% chance of a draw and just 16% for a Las Palmas win. Eibar's five-match winning streak and defensive record make them clear favourites.
Will both teams score in Eibar vs Las Palmas?
Both teams to score is rated at just 28%, with 'No' at 72%. Eibar have kept four clean sheets in their last five, while Las Palmas have struggled to score early in recent games.
Can Eibar's winning streak continue?
Eibar's current run of five straight wins is backed by strong underlying numbers—2.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game over their last five. With no new injuries and a favourable home matchup, the model expects their streak to continue.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Eibar vs Las Palmas: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 20 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.