Eibar vs Las Palmas Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Eibar
Full Time
3 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Las Palmas
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 2.9(+5% edge)
Match Result
7.7/10Clinical Eibar Punish Wasteful Las Palmas in 3-1 Ipurua Triumph
Eibar delivered a ruthless display of efficiency at the Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, dispatching Las Palmas 3-1 despite conceding nearly 70% possession. The hosts struck three times in a scintillating first-half spell, with goals in the 16th, 31st, and 43rd minutes, while Las Palmas could only muster a single reply moments after Eibar's opener. Despite dominating the ball and firing 21 shots, Las Palmas were left to rue their profligacy, managing just four attempts on target. The match was a tale of contrasting approaches: Eibar soaked up pressure and struck decisively on the break, while Las Palmas controlled proceedings but failed to convert their territorial dominance into goals. Four yellow cards for Eibar reflected their combative edge, but it was their clinical finishing that ultimately proved decisive.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
3 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
16' — Goal
Eibar open the scoring, capitalizing on a swift counter-attack.
17' — Goal
Las Palmas respond immediately through Jesé Rodríguez to level the match.
31' — Goal
Eibar restore their lead with a well-worked team move.
43' — Goal
Eibar extend their advantage before halftime, making it 3-1.
Various' — Yellow cards
Eibar pick up four yellow cards as they battle to protect their lead.
Eibar
Eibar executed a near-perfect counter-attacking game plan, making the most of their limited possession (31%) to score three first-half goals from just nine shots. Their defensive organization frustrated Las Palmas, and they were disciplined—if occasionally aggressive—committing 15 fouls and collecting four yellow cards. The hosts' ability to absorb pressure and strike quickly was the foundation of their victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Las Palmas
Las Palmas dominated possession with 69% and produced 21 shots, but their lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly. Despite controlling the tempo and winning 10 corners, they could only find the net once, immediately after falling behind early. Their defensive lapses in the first half allowed Eibar to build an unassailable lead, and their attempts to claw back in the second period were thwarted by a resolute Eibar backline.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides deployed a 4-2-3-1 formation, but their approaches diverged sharply. Eibar sat deep, inviting Las Palmas onto them and springing forward with pace and precision when opportunities arose. Their double pivot shielded the back four effectively, while the attacking midfielders supported Martón in transition. Las Palmas, meanwhile, pressed high and monopolized possession, using their full-backs to provide width and overloading the flanks. However, their attacking midfield trio struggled to break through Eibar's compact lines, and their high defensive line was repeatedly exposed by Eibar's direct play. Set pieces offered Las Palmas some threat, but Eibar's discipline and organization held firm.
Turning Point
Eibar's third goal in the 43rd minute, which gave them a commanding two-goal cushion heading into halftime and deflated Las Palmas' momentum.
Man of the Match
Javier Martón
Led the line superbly, scored a vital goal, and was central to Eibar's quick transitions.
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Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 0.55
Over 2.5 Goals
14%
BTTS: Yes
22%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Eibar vs Las Palmas Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Eibar vs Las Palmas(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 2.9
Both teams are solid defensively, have similar recent form, and have drawn 2 of their last 5 H2H meetings. Eibar's home strength is offset by Las Palmas' resilience away. The model's probability for a draw is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability, providing value.
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The Case For This Eibar vs Las Palmas Prediction
This is a tightly matched contest between Eibar, strong at home, and Las Palmas, who have been hard to beat away. Both sides have shown defensive solidity recently, with few goals conceded and a high rate of clean sheets. The historical H2H record is balanced, and the league table positions suggest both are fighting for playoff spots. Expect a cagey, low-scoring affair with a high probability of a draw.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →H2H is even: 4 wins each, 2 draws in last 10; recent meetings often low scoring.
Defence
- →Eibar's home record is excellent: 10 wins in 16, only 11 conceded.
- →Las Palmas have only 3 away losses in 15 and average less than 1 goal conceded per away game.
- →Both teams average under 1 goal conceded per game this season.
- →Last 5 for both sides: 3 clean sheets each, Eibar failed to score in 2, Las Palmas scored in all.
Match Context
- →Bookmaker odds and model both expect under 2.5 goals; BTTS 'no' is favored.
🚩 Eibar vs Las Palmas Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Eibar and 6 for Las Palmas, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 49%.
How Eibar and Las Palmas Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Eibar vs Las Palmas Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Eibarlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Las Palmaslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Eibar vs Las Palmas — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 60% avg
What History Says: Eibar vs Las Palmas
Eibar vs Las Palmas Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Eibar wins
2
Draws
3
Las Palmas wins
Things to Watch: Eibar vs Las Palmas
- ⚠️Some away team match stats (shots, possession, etc.) missing for recent games, slightly increasing uncertainty.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late injuries or rotations could impact predictions.
- ⚠️Low-scoring matches can be decided by a single incident, increasing draw or 1-goal margin volatility.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Eibar vs Las Palmas: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.