Mallorca vs Almeria Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Mallorca
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
Almeria
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Almeria Edge Mallorca in Fiery Contest at Son Moix
Almeria secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Mallorca at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in a tense Segunda División encounter. The visitors struck the decisive blow in the 35th minute, capitalizing on a rare defensive lapse from the hosts, and then held firm under mounting pressure. Mallorca dominated possession (54%) and peppered the Almeria goal with 17 shots, but their profligacy and Almeria's defensive resilience proved decisive. The match was marked by physicality and intensity, with both sides combining for 37 fouls and nine yellow cards. Despite Mallorca's persistent attacking efforts—particularly in the second half—Almeria's disciplined back line and composed midfield shielded their lead. The result lifts Almeria in the league standings and leaves Mallorca ruing missed opportunities in front of their home fans.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
35' — Goal
Miguel de la Fuente scores for Almeria, finishing off a swift move to give the visitors the lead.
41' — Yellow Card
Mallorca pick up their third yellow card as tempers flare before halftime.
62' — Yellow Card
Almeria's defense stands strong, but a tactical foul earns them another booking.
75' — Yellow Card
Mallorca's frustration grows as another midfielder is cautioned for dissent.
88' — Save
Andrés Fernández makes a vital stop to deny Mallorca a late equalizer.
Mallorca
Mallorca showed plenty of attacking intent, registering 17 shots and controlling 54% of the ball. Their 4-1-4-1 formation allowed for fluid movement in midfield and width down the flanks, but the lack of cutting edge in the final third ultimately cost them. Pablo Torre and Adrian Liso tried to unlock the Almeria defense, but the final pass or finish was often lacking. The hosts' frustration grew as the match wore on, reflected in the six yellow cards they collected.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Almeria
Almeria executed their game plan to perfection, staying compact in a 4-2-3-1 shape and striking clinically in the first half. After taking the lead, they absorbed Mallorca's pressure with organized defending and timely interventions. Andrés Fernández was reliable in goal, while the midfield duo of Javi Muñoz and Mikel Vesga provided a sturdy shield in front of the back four. Almeria's ability to manage the tempo and frustrate Mallorca was key to their victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Mallorca lined up in a 4-1-4-1, seeking to dominate the midfield and use width to stretch Almeria's compact 4-2-3-1. The home side's possession-based approach created territorial advantage and a steady flow of chances, but Almeria's disciplined block forced them into speculative efforts. After taking the lead, Almeria dropped deeper, packing the central areas and relying on quick transitions to relieve pressure. Substitutions from both sides aimed to inject energy, but neither formation was significantly altered. Set pieces were a potential avenue for Mallorca, who won six corners, but Almeria's aerial strength and organization nullified these threats. Almeria's pressing was selective, focusing on disrupting Mallorca's build-up in key moments, while their own attacking impetus waned after the opening goal as they prioritized protecting their lead.
Turning Point
Miguel de la Fuente's goal in the 35th minute gave Almeria the lead and allowed them to dictate the game's tempo from a position of strength.
Man of the Match
Andrés Fernández
His commanding presence and crucial saves ensured Almeria kept a clean sheet under sustained pressure.
Mallorca vs Almeria: Match Preview
Mallorca arrive in strong form, sitting third in the table with four wins from six and a perfect home record (three wins from three, seven scored, none conceded). Their recent run includes four clean sheets in five, and they have yet to concede at Son Moix this campaign. Almeria, eighth with nine points from five, have recovered from back-to-back away defeats to win their last two, but their away attack remains subdued with just two goals in three matches on the road.
Statistically, this fixture sets up as a clash between Mallorca's elite home defence and an Almeria side whose attacking output drops sharply away from home. Mallorca's last five have averaged just 1.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while Almeria's last five average 1.6 scored but only 0.67 per away game. Both sides trend strongly under 2.5 goals (Mallorca 16.7%, Almeria 40%), and the combined BTTS rate is low. Set-piece and discipline data show moderate corners (Mallorca 3.6, Almeria 4.0 per game) and a slightly elevated cards profile for Mallorca (2.6 yellows per match).
The model expects Mallorca to dictate the tempo, leveraging their defensive structure and home advantage to limit Almeria's chances. With both sides rarely involved in high-scoring matches and Mallorca's home clean sheet streak intact, a 1-0 home win is the likeliest outcome, with the main risk being an early Almeria goal disrupting the pattern.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 0.45
Over 2.5 Goals
19%
BTTS: Yes
24%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Mallorca vs Almeria Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Mallorca vs Almeria that most previews miss.
- 1Mallorca's home matches this season have all ended with clean sheets for the hosts (3/3, 100%).
- 2Just one of Mallorca's six league games has gone over 2.5 goals (16.7%), compared to two of five for Almeria (40%).
- 3Across the last ten H2Hs, four matches at Son Moix finished with Mallorca winning to nil.
Who do you think wins: Mallorca vs Almeria?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Mallorca vs Almeria(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Mallorca Win
Mallorca have won all three home games this season without conceding (7 scored, 0 conceded), and their season clean sheet rate is 83%. Almeria's away record is less convincing, with just two goals scored in three away matches and a 1-2-0 win-draw-loss split. The model's 50% home win probability reflects Mallorca's defensive solidity at Son Moix.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams' season over 2.5 goal rates are low (Mallorca 16.7%, Almeria 40%), and Mallorca's last five have averaged just 1.6 total goals per game. Four of five recent H2Hs finished under 2.5, supporting the model's 81% probability for a low-scoring match.
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BTTS: No
Mallorca have kept four clean sheets in their last five and have not conceded at home this season (7:0 goal difference). Almeria have failed to score in two of their last three away games. The model assigns an 82% probability to at least one side failing to score.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Mallorca vs Almeria Prediction
Mallorca's defensive metrics at home are among the best in the division, with zero goals conceded in Palma and an 83% clean sheet rate overall. Almeria's attack has been more productive at home than away, and their away scoring rate (0.67 goals per game) does not project well against this Mallorca back line. The most likely outcome is a narrow home win in a low-scoring contest.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Almeria's away attack averages just 0.67 goals per game, with two blanks in their last three on the road.
- →Mallorca's season over 2.5 goal rate is just 16.7%, and their last five matches have all finished under 2.5.
Defence
- →Mallorca have not conceded a goal at home this season (7 scored, 0 conceded in 3 matches).
🚩 Mallorca vs Almeria Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Mallorca and 4.2 for Almeria, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 22%.
How Mallorca and Almeria Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Mallorca vs Almeria Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Mallorcalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Almerialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mallorca's recent form is built on defensive strength, with four wins and a draw in their last five, conceding just one goal in that span. At home, they have yet to concede in three matches. Almeria have bounced back from two early away defeats to win their last two, but their away attack remains muted, averaging less than a goal per game on the road.
Mallorca vs Almeria — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +83.33% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Mallorca vs Almeria
Mallorca have the historical edge, winning five of the last ten meetings and four of the last five at home against Almeria. The last two encounters were both draws and under 2.5 goals, suggesting a trend towards low-scoring, closely contested matches.
Mallorca vs Almeria Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Mallorca wins
2
Draws
3
Almeria wins
Things to Watch: Mallorca vs Almeria
- ⚠️Early season sample sizes (6 games for Mallorca, 5 for Almeria) mean rate estimates are not fully stable.
- ⚠️Almeria's attack has shown some volatility, with three goals in two home games but only two in three away.
- ⚠️No odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be quantified.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Mallorca 1–0 AlmeriaThe model projects a 1-0 Mallorca win, anchored by their perfect defensive record at home and an 83% season clean sheet rate. The single strongest data point is Mallorca's zero goals conceded at Son Moix in three matches. The main way this prediction could fail is if Almeria find an early breakthrough, forcing Mallorca to chase the game and opening up space for a higher-scoring outcome.
Mallorca vs Almeria: Common Questions
Who will win Mallorca vs Almeria?
Mallorca are given a 50% probability to win, with a 33% chance of a draw and 17% for an Almeria victory. The prediction is shaped by Mallorca's perfect home record and defensive solidity.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Almeria?
The model sees just an 18% chance of both teams scoring, with 82% probability for 'No'. Mallorca have kept four clean sheets in their last five, and Almeria have failed to score in two of their last three away games.
Is Mallorca vs Almeria likely to go over or under 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured at 81% probability. Mallorca's matches average just 1.33 goals for and 0.33 against per game, and their over 2.5 rate is only 16.7% this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Mallorca vs Almeria: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 20 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.