Girona vs Eibar Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Girona
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Eibar
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Recommended Bets: Girona vs Eibar
Girona vs Eibar: Match Preview
Girona and Eibar enter this fixture as top-six rivals, separated by just a single point after 14 and 12 games respectively. Girona's recent form has been patchy (WLLWW), but their home record is strong, with four wins and two draws from eight at Montilivi. Eibar have been more consistent away from home, winning four of six on their travels and scoring 11 goals in those matches.
The statistical matchup is finely balanced. Girona average 2.0 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per home game, while Eibar's away figures are 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded. Both sides' last five matches show a moderate BTTS trend (Girona 2/5, Eibar 3/5), and their shots, possession, and set-piece numbers are closely matched. The head-to-head record is heavily in Eibar's favour, but this season's underlying rates point to a much more even contest.
Given the convergence in scoring and defensive rates, the model expects a closely fought match with limited separation between the sides. The most probable outcome is a draw, with 1-1 the likeliest scoreline, reflecting both teams' tendency to score and concede at similar rates and the lack of a clear advantage in either direction.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Girona vs Eibar Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Girona vs Eibar that most previews miss.
- 1Eibar have won seven of the last eight meetings with Girona, including all four away trips since 2018.
- 2Girona's home matches average 2.88 total goals per game, but 57% have finished under 2.5 goals.
- 3Both teams have scored in 5 of Eibar's last 8 away matches, suggesting a strong BTTS trend on the road.
Who do you think wins: Girona vs Eibar?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Girona vs Eibar(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average between 1.7 and 1.75 goals scored per game this season, but their defensive records (0.93 and 1.17 conceded per game) and recent form suggest a tightly matched contest. The draw is the most probable outcome, with 1-1 the likeliest scoreline based on the distribution of goals and the high draw rate in their season records.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Girona's home matches have finished under 2.5 goals in 57% of cases (season over 2.5%: 42.86%), and Eibar's away matches have produced 2.67 goals per game, but their last 5 average only 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded. Both teams have a moderate clean sheet rate and recent matches hint at a controlled tempo.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Girona vs Eibar Prediction
This is a meeting of two sides separated by just a point and three places in the top six, with both Girona and Eibar showing similar season-long scoring and concession rates. Girona have been efficient at home, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game in Montilivi, while Eibar have travelled well (1.83 goals scored, 1.17 conceded per away match). Both sides' recent form is mixed, but neither has a clear momentum edge. Statistically, this fixture projects as a balanced, mid-to-high scoring environment. Girona's last five league matches average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, while Eibar's are at 1.2 for and 1.4 against. Both teams have a BTTS rate above 50% in their last five, and the underlying shot and possession figures are closely aligned. The head-to-head record is notably lopsided in Eibar's favour, but the underlying rates this season are much closer. The model expects a closely contested match, with both teams likely to score but neither able to dominate. The most probable outcome is a draw, with 1-1 the likeliest scoreline, reflecting the convergence of their season averages and the lack of a decisive edge in either attack or defence.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →The last eight head-to-heads have produced seven Eibar wins, but current form and season rates suggest a much tighter contest.
Attack
- →Girona and Eibar are separated by just one point and both average over 1.7 goals scored per game this season.
Defence
- →Girona's home defensive record (0.88 goals conceded per home game) is among the league's best, but Eibar have won four of six away matches.
🚩 Girona vs Eibar Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Girona and 4.4 for Eibar, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Girona and Eibar Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Girona vs Eibar Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Gironalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Eibarlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Girona's recent form is mixed, with three wins and two losses in their last five, but their home record remains a strength (four wins from eight). Eibar have stumbled slightly, with just one win in their last five league games, but remain effective away from home, winning four of six on the road. Both sides are scoring and conceding at similar rates, suggesting neither has a clear momentum advantage.
Girona vs Eibar — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Girona vs Eibar
Eibar's dominance in this fixture is striking, with seven wins from the last eight meetings and a perfect away record at Montilivi in that span. However, most matches have been competitive, and Girona's underlying numbers this season suggest a closer contest than the H2H record alone would indicate.
Girona vs Eibar Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
1
Girona wins
0
Draws
7
Eibar wins
Things to Watch: Girona vs Eibar
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are unavailable, so value analysis is limited.
- ⚠️Recent H2H dominance by Eibar could be over-weighted given squad turnover and current season rates.
- ⚠️Small sample size for Eibar's away form (6 matches) may inflate their win rate.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Girona 1–1 EibarThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven by the near-identical season scoring rates (Girona 1.71, Eibar 1.75 per game) and the lack of a decisive edge in either attack or defence. The biggest risk to this forecast is Eibar's historically dominant head-to-head record, which could tilt the balance if Girona's home defence falters.
Girona vs Eibar: Common Questions
Who will win Girona vs Eibar?
The model gives Girona a 32% chance to win, Eibar a 33% chance, and the draw a 35% probability. Both teams are closely matched on season averages, so a draw is the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Eibar?
There's a 54% probability for both teams to score, based on recent BTTS rates (Girona 2/5, Eibar 3/5) and their season-long scoring records.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 52%, with Girona's home matches finishing under that line in 57% of cases and both teams averaging under 2 goals conceded per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Girona vs Eibar: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.