Tenerife vs Mallorca Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Tenerife
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Mallorca
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Tenerife vs Mallorca
Tenerife vs Mallorca: Match Preview
Tenerife arrive at this fixture on the back of four consecutive draws, a run that has left them mid-table with 15 points from 12 matches. Their season has been defined by tight margins—six draws overall and only a -2 goal difference. Mallorca, meanwhile, are sixth with 22 points, boasting the league's joint-best defensive record (7 conceded in 12) and just two defeats. The away side's form string of WDDWD and a single loss in six away games underline their consistency, even if goals have been hard to come by on their travels.
The statistical shape of this match is clear: both teams average 1.25 goals scored per game, but Mallorca's away games are especially low-event, with just 3 goals scored and 4 conceded in six outings. Tenerife's home record is steady (2W 3D 1L, 7:5 goal difference), but their last five matches show a slight defensive vulnerability (1.6 conceded per game) offset by a consistent ability to find the net (no failed-to-score in the last five). Both sides see a majority of their goals after the break, but first halves have been especially cagey, with only six combined first-half goals in their last ten matches.
Given these rates, the model expects a low-scoring encounter, with the likeliest outcome a draw—most probably 1-1. Mallorca's defensive discipline and Tenerife's draw-heavy profile suggest neither side will dominate, and the underlying shot and possession numbers reinforce the expectation of a match decided by fine margins rather than sustained attacking pressure.
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
28%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Tenerife vs Mallorca Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Tenerife vs Mallorca that most previews miss.
- 1Mallorca's away matches average just 1.17 total goals per game (3 scored, 4 conceded in 6).
- 2Tenerife have seen both teams score in each of their last five matches, despite only one win in that span.
- 3Across the last eight H2H meetings, Mallorca have won five times, including the last two in Tenerife by a 1-0 scoreline.
Who do you think wins: Tenerife vs Mallorca?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Tenerife vs Mallorca(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average exactly 1.25 goals scored per game across the season, and Tenerife have drawn 6 of 12 matches, including four consecutive stalemates. Mallorca's away games average just 1.17 goals for and 0.67 against, with 4 of 6 ending in draws.
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Over/Under: Under 2.5
Only 33% of Tenerife's and 25% of Mallorca's league matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season, and both sides have a low average combined xG profile, with recent matches supporting a low-scoring trend.
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Double Chance: Draw or Mallorca
Mallorca have lost only twice all season and just once away, while Tenerife's home record (2W 3D 1L) and current streak of four straight draws suggest Mallorca are more likely to avoid defeat.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Tenerife vs Mallorca Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a low-scoring, tightly-contested draw, shaped by both teams' modest attacking output and Mallorca's defensive reliability away from home. With both sides averaging 1.25 goals scored per game and Mallorca conceding just 0.58 per match across the season, the distribution points squarely to a 1-1 or 0-1 type outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average 1.25 goals scored per game for the season, with under 2.5 goals in the majority of their matches.
Defence
- →Mallorca have conceded only 4 goals in 6 away games (0.67 per match) and drawn four of those.
Match Context
- →Tenerife have drawn four straight matches and six of twelve this season.
🚩 Tenerife vs Mallorca Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Tenerife and 5.5 for Mallorca, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 63% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How Tenerife and Mallorca Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Tenerife vs Mallorca Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Tenerifelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mallorcalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Tenerife's recent form is draw-heavy, with four consecutive stalemates and no wins in their last five, though they have consistently found the net. Mallorca, meanwhile, are unbeaten in five (WDDWD) and have lost only once away from home, underpinned by the league's best defensive record. Both teams' momentum is steady but unspectacular, with Mallorca's defensive solidity balancing Tenerife's attacking persistence.
Tenerife vs Mallorca — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
What History Says: Tenerife vs Mallorca
Mallorca have dominated this matchup in recent years, winning five of the last eight meetings and both of the last two at Tenerife by 1-0 scorelines. Draws have been less common, but the historical trend favours Mallorca, especially away from home. However, the low-scoring nature of these games is a consistent theme.
Tenerife vs Mallorca Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
1
Tenerife wins
2
Draws
5
Mallorca wins
Things to Watch: Tenerife vs Mallorca
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value edges can be calculated.
- ⚠️Mallorca's away attack has been blunt (3 goals in 6 away games), but variance in finishing could skew a low-scoring prediction.
- ⚠️Tenerife's defensive record is weaker than Mallorca's, but their recent matches have all been close.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Tenerife 1–1 MallorcaA 1-1 draw is the most probable result, driven by both teams' matching 1.25 goals scored per game and Mallorca's tendency to draw away (four of six). The strongest data point is Mallorca's defensive record—just 0.58 conceded per game—which could tilt the balance if Tenerife's attack falters. The biggest risk is that Tenerife's defensive lapses (1.42 conceded per game) allow Mallorca to edge it 0-1 or 1-2, especially if the visitors convert their superior shot volume.
Tenerife vs Mallorca: Common Questions
Who will win Tenerife vs Mallorca?
The model gives Tenerife a 25% chance to win, Mallorca a 34% chance, and a draw the highest probability at 41%. Both teams have drawn frequently, and Mallorca's away record (1W 4D 1L) suggests a stalemate is most likely.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Tenerife vs Mallorca?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 67%, as both teams average just 1.25 goals scored per game and only a third of their matches have exceeded two goals. Mallorca's away games are especially low-scoring, with just 7 total goals in six matches.
Is both teams to score a good bet for Tenerife vs Mallorca?
Both teams to score is rated at 57%, slightly above even, with Tenerife seeing BTTS in all of their last five matches and Mallorca in four of their last five. However, Mallorca's overall defensive record is strong, so this is a marginal call.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Tenerife vs Mallorca: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Tenerife vs Mallorca Resources
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