Grimsby vs Burton Albion Predictions
EFL Trophy · England
Grimsby
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Burton Albion
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
6.8/10Grimsby Edge Burton Albion in Dramatic EFL Trophy Penalty Shootout
Grimsby Town and Burton Albion delivered a tense, hard-fought encounter at Blundell Park, ultimately requiring penalties to separate the sides after a goalless 90 minutes. Both teams struggled to break the deadlock in regular time, with Grimsby creating the lion's share of chances but failing to convert, while Burton Albion controlled possession yet rarely threatened in the final third. The shootout provided the drama the match itself lacked, with both teams trading blows before Grimsby finally prevailed. The Mariners' resilience under pressure, coupled with a strong defensive display, saw them through to the next round of the EFL Trophy.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
90' — Full-time whistle
Neither side able to find a breakthrough after 90 minutes.
92' — Penalty Shootout
Burton score their first penalty.
93' — Penalty Shootout
Grimsby respond with a successful spot-kick.
94' — Penalty Shootout
Burton convert again to keep pressure on.
95' — Penalty Shootout
Grimsby level the shootout.
96' — Penalty Shootout
Both teams score, but Grimsby ultimately triumph after a decisive save.
Grimsby
Grimsby Town put in a disciplined and energetic display, setting up in a 4-1-4-1 formation that allowed them to transition quickly and create more chances than their visitors. The Mariners registered 16 shots, 5 of which were on target, and forced 11 corners, but a lack of clinical finishing kept them from scoring in open play. Defensively, they were well-organized, limiting Burton to just one shot on target and holding firm under late pressure. Despite conceding more possession (47%), Grimsby were more purposeful in attack and showed composure during the penalty shootout. Their midfield, led by Cian Doyle, broke up play effectively and helped drive the team forward.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Burton Albion
Burton Albion opted for a 3-4-2-1 setup, prioritizing ball retention and width. They edged possession with 53% but struggled to translate that into meaningful attacking opportunities, managing just five shots and only one on target. Their midfield moved the ball well but lacked incision, and the front line found it difficult to break down Grimsby's disciplined back four. Defensively, Burton were solid, restricting Grimsby to half-chances for much of the match, but their inability to threaten at the other end ultimately cost them, especially when the contest went to penalties.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Grimsby’s 4-1-4-1 formation allowed them to crowd the midfield and provide support for lone striker Iwan Morgan, while also ensuring defensive solidity with a dedicated holding midfielder in Cian Doyle. Their approach focused on quick transitions and exploiting set pieces, as evidenced by their 11 corners. The fullbacks pushed forward at times, but the team remained disciplined defensively. Burton Albion’s 3-4-2-1 system helped them dominate possession and stretch the play with wingbacks, but they lacked penetration in the final third. Their midfield trio kept the ball moving but struggled to break lines or create clear chances. As the match wore on, both sides made tactical substitutions to inject energy, but neither could find the winner in open play, leading to the shootout.
Turning Point
H. Cartwright’s crucial save during the penalty shootout swung momentum decisively in Grimsby’s favor.
Man of the Match
H. Cartwright
Kept a clean sheet in regular time and made the decisive save in the penalty shootout.
Grimsby vs Burton Albion: Match Preview
Grimsby approach this EFL Trophy tie after a mixed run, with two wins, two defeats and a draw in their last five outings across all competitions. They have shown resilience at home, winning their last two at Blundell Park and scoring at least twice in both. Burton Albion, meanwhile, have a marginally better recent points return, with two wins, two draws and a single defeat in their last five, and arrive on the back of a clean-sheet away victory at Plymouth.
Statistically, both teams’ matches have tended to produce goals: Grimsby average 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded per game in their last five, while Burton’s figures are 1.8 and 1.6 respectively. Both sides have seen BTTS in three of their last five, and Grimsby have not failed to score in any of those games. Set-piece data shows Grimsby averaging 6 corners per game and Burton 3.8, but neither side has a notable disciplinary problem, with card averages under 2 per match.
The model expects a balanced contest, with neither defence likely to keep a clean sheet given current rates. The most probable scenario is a low-scoring first half followed by both teams finding the net after the break. With both sides’ recent results clustering around the 1-1 and 2-1 scorelines, a draw with goals is the likeliest outcome.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Grimsby vs Burton Albion Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Grimsby vs Burton Albion that most previews miss.
- 1Grimsby have scored in all of their last five matches, but only kept two clean sheets in that span.
- 2Burton’s last five matches have averaged 3.4 total goals, with three of those ending BTTS.
- 3Grimsby’s last two home games both finished 2-0, suggesting a stronger attacking output at Blundell Park.
Who do you think wins: Grimsby vs Burton Albion?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Grimsby vs Burton Albion(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average between 1.6 and 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 to 1.6 conceded per match over the last five, with three BTTS games each in that stretch. Neither side has a strong clean sheet rate, and their only recent head-to-head finished 1-0, but the underlying rates point to a balanced contest with goals at both ends.
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Double Chance: Grimsby or Draw
Grimsby have won both of their last two home games in all competitions and have not failed to score in any of their last five, while Burton have only one clean sheet in their last five and are away from home.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have averaged over 1.5 goals scored per game in their last five, and Grimsby’s only EFL Trophy match this season finished 2-1, indicating a slightly higher goal environment than the raw season averages.
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More EFL Trophy Predictions
The Case For This Grimsby vs Burton Albion Prediction
This fixture brings together two sides with similar recent scoring rates and defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a contest where neither can fully impose themselves. Grimsby have scored in every one of their last five matches, while Burton have found the net in four of their last five and conceded at least once in all but one. The statistical shape points to a game defined by both teams’ ability to create chances but also their tendency to concede, especially in the second half.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Grimsby average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last five matches.
- →Burton Albion have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in the same period.
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in three of their last five, and neither has kept more than two clean sheets in that span.
🚩 Grimsby vs Burton Albion Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.7 corners for Grimsby and 4.8 for Burton Albion, for an expected total of 11.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (71%). Over 8.5: 81% · Over 10.5: 59%.
How Grimsby and Burton Albion Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Grimsby vs Burton Albion Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Grimsbylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burton Albionlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Grimsby’s recent form is mixed, with two wins, two losses and a draw in their last five, but they have scored in every outing and won their last two at home. Burton Albion have a slightly better recent run, with two wins and two draws, and only one defeat, but have conceded in four of their last five. Both sides are showing attacking consistency but remain vulnerable at the back.
Grimsby vs Burton Albion — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Grimsby vs Burton Albion
These sides have met just once recently, with Grimsby winning 1-0 at home in the FA Cup in January 2023. With such a limited head-to-head sample, there is no clear trend, but that match did see Grimsby keep a rare clean sheet at Blundell Park.
Grimsby vs Burton Albion Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Grimsby wins
1
Draws
0
Burton Albion wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Grimsby vs Burton Albion
With no bookmaker odds available, it is not possible to quantify value edges for this fixture. The model’s probabilities suggest the market would likely be close to even, with a slight lean towards the draw and both teams to score. Any edge would be found in BTTS or correct score markets if prices drift above the model’s implied probabilities.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Grimsby vs Burton Albion
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Standings and full home/away splits for the EFL Trophy group are not available.
- ⚠️Only one recent head-to-head, so long-term matchup trends are unreliable.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Grimsby 1–1 Burton AlbionThe model projects a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, with both teams’ recent scoring and concession rates nearly identical and neither side showing a consistent defensive edge. The strongest data point is the matching BTTS rates (three of five for each), but the main risk is that one side capitalises on defensive lapses to edge a higher-scoring result.
Grimsby vs Burton Albion: Common Questions
Who will win Grimsby vs Burton Albion?
The probabilities are closely matched: Grimsby 34%, draw 36%, Burton Albion 30%. With both sides averaging over 1.5 goals scored and conceded per game in recent matches, a draw is marginally likeliest, but either side could edge it.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Burton Albion?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, based on both sides seeing BTTS in three of their last five matches and neither keeping more than two clean sheets in that period.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Grimsby vs Burton Albion?
The model gives a 52% probability for over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging above 1.5 goals scored and 1.2–1.6 conceded per game in their last five, suggesting a slightly higher than average goal environment.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Grimsby vs Burton Albion: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.