Grimsby vs Burton Albion Predictions

Grimsby PredictionsBurton Albion PredictionsEFL TrophyH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
EFL TrophyEFL Trophy · England
high confidence
Grimsby

Grimsby

AI Predicted Score

1 - 1

Burton Albion

Burton Albion

🗓️ Tuesday, 6 Oct 2026 at 19:00 BST (venue time) · 18:00 UTC (your time)📍 Blundell Park, Cleethorpes

Win Probability (1X2)

Grimsby 34%Draw 36%Burton Albion 30%

Best Value Pick

Correct Score: 1–1

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Recommended Bets: Grimsby vs Burton Albion

Correct Score: 1–1
7/10
Double Chance: Grimsby or Draw
6/10

Grimsby vs Burton Albion: Match Preview

Grimsby approach this EFL Trophy tie after a mixed run, with two wins, two defeats and a draw in their last five outings across all competitions. They have shown resilience at home, winning their last two at Blundell Park and scoring at least twice in both. Burton Albion, meanwhile, have a marginally better recent points return, with two wins, two draws and a single defeat in their last five, and arrive on the back of a clean-sheet away victory at Plymouth.

Statistically, both teams’ matches have tended to produce goals: Grimsby average 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded per game in their last five, while Burton’s figures are 1.8 and 1.6 respectively. Both sides have seen BTTS in three of their last five, and Grimsby have not failed to score in any of those games. Set-piece data shows Grimsby averaging 6 corners per game and Burton 3.8, but neither side has a notable disciplinary problem, with card averages under 2 per match.

The model expects a balanced contest, with neither defence likely to keep a clean sheet given current rates. The most probable scenario is a low-scoring first half followed by both teams finding the net after the break. With both sides’ recent results clustering around the 1-1 and 2-1 scorelines, a draw with goals is the likeliest outcome.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Grimsby1.35

Expected goals · model says 1.35

Burton Albion1.25

Expected goals · model says 1.25

Win Probability
Grimsby 39% Draw 26% Burton Albion 34%

Over 2.5 Goals

48%

BTTS: Yes

53%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Grimsby vs Burton Albion Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
34%
36%
30%
Grimsby 34%Draw 36%Burton Albion 30%
Both Teams to Score
54%
46%
Yes 54%No 46%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
52%
48%
Over 2.5 52%Under 2.5 48%
Corners (Over/Under 9.5)
68%
32%
Over 9.5 68%Under 9.5 32%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind Grimsby vs Burton Albion that most previews miss.

  • 1Grimsby have scored in all of their last five matches, but only kept two clean sheets in that span.
  • 2Burton’s last five matches have averaged 3.4 total goals, with three of those ending BTTS.
  • 3Grimsby’s last two home games both finished 2-0, suggesting a stronger attacking output at Blundell Park.

Who do you think wins: Grimsby vs Burton Albion?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This Grimsby vs Burton Albion Prediction

This fixture brings together two sides with similar recent scoring rates and defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a contest where neither can fully impose themselves. Grimsby have scored in every one of their last five matches, while Burton have found the net in four of their last five and conceded at least once in all but one. The statistical shape points to a game defined by both teams’ ability to create chances but also their tendency to concede, especially in the second half.

Key Factors at a Glance

Defence

  • →Grimsby average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last five matches.
  • →Burton Albion have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in the same period.
  • →Both teams have seen BTTS in three of their last five, and neither has kept more than two clean sheets in that span.

🚩 Grimsby vs Burton Albion Corners Prediction

medium confidence
11.2expected total corners
Over 68%
Under 32%
Over 9.5Under 9.5

Our corners model projects roughly 6.4 corners for Grimsby and 4.8 for Burton Albion, for an expected total of 11.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (68%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 56%.

More corners tips:Over 9.5 →Under 9.5 →

How Grimsby and Burton Albion Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Grimsby vs Burton Albion Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

GrimsbyGrimsbylast 5 matches
K. GreenXI
3 goals in 5
60%

Scoring consistently

Jayden SweeneyXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

I. MorganXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

G. D. Turisub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

M. SheltonXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Burton AlbionBurton Albionlast 5 matches
Jack ArmerXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

C. TiltXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

F. DelapXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

G. EvansXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

C. WebsterXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

C. VickersXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Grimsby’s recent form is mixed, with two wins, two losses and a draw in their last five, but they have scored in every outing and won their last two at home. Burton Albion have a slightly better recent run, with two wins and two draws, and only one defeat, but have conceded in four of their last five. Both sides are showing attacking consistency but remain vulnerable at the back.

Grimsby vs Burton Albion — Last 1 Matches

GrimsbyGrimsbyLast 1 results
L1-2
L@ Notts County1-2

Strengths

  • +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Burton AlbionBurton AlbionLast 1 results
D1-1
Dvs Nottingham Forest U211-1

What History Says: Grimsby vs Burton Albion

These sides have met just once recently, with Grimsby winning 1-0 at home in the FA Cup in January 2023. With such a limited head-to-head sample, there is no clear trend, but that match did see Grimsby keep a rare clean sheet at Blundell Park.

Grimsby vs Burton Albion Head-to-Head History

Last 1 meeting between these sides

1

Grimsby wins

0

Draws

0

Burton Albion wins

100%0% draws0%
7 Jan 23Grimsby vs Burton Albion1-0

Things to Watch: Grimsby vs Burton Albion

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
  • ⚠️Standings and full home/away splits for the EFL Trophy group are not available.
  • ⚠️Only one recent head-to-head, so long-term matchup trends are unreliable.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

Grimsby 1–1 Burton Albion

The model projects a 1-1 draw as the most probable outcome, with both teams’ recent scoring and concession rates nearly identical and neither side showing a consistent defensive edge. The strongest data point is the matching BTTS rates (three of five for each), but the main risk is that one side capitalises on defensive lapses to edge a higher-scoring result.

Grimsby vs Burton Albion: Common Questions

Who will win Grimsby vs Burton Albion?

The probabilities are closely matched: Grimsby 34%, draw 36%, Burton Albion 30%. With both sides averaging over 1.5 goals scored and conceded per game in recent matches, a draw is marginally likeliest, but either side could edge it.

Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Burton Albion?

There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, based on both sides seeing BTTS in three of their last five matches and neither keeping more than two clean sheets in that period.

Is over 2.5 goals likely in Grimsby vs Burton Albion?

The model gives a 52% probability for over 2.5 goals, with both teams averaging above 1.5 goals scored and 1.2–1.6 conceded per game in their last five, suggesting a slightly higher than average goal environment.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Grimsby vs Burton Albion: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 29 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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