Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd Predictions
FA Cup · England
Guiseley AFC
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Sutton Utd
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Draw or Sutton Utd
Match Result
7/10Last-Gasp Murphy Strike Sends Guiseley Past Sutton in FA Cup Thriller
Guiseley AFC produced a dramatic late winner to edge Sutton United 1-0 at Nethermoor Park in a tense FA Cup encounter. In a match characterized by physicality and few clear-cut chances, it was Kallan Murphy who emerged as the hero, netting in the 90th minute to send the home fans into raptures. Both sides struggled to find their attacking rhythm, with Guiseley managing just two shots on target from 11 attempts, while Sutton United mustered only one shot on target despite enjoying a slight edge in possession. The match was a hard-fought midfield battle, with neither side able to assert clear dominance for long stretches. Sutton United, operating in a 4-3-3, controlled 54% of possession and matched Guiseley's seven corners, but were ultimately undone by a moment of late brilliance. The contest was also marked by its combative nature, as both teams collected three yellow cards apiece in a game that saw 38 fouls committed.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
90' — Goal
Kallan Murphy scores the decisive winner for Guiseley.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both teams pick up three yellow cards each in a physical contest.
Guiseley AFC
Guiseley displayed impressive resilience and determination, keeping their defensive shape well in a 4-4-2 formation. While their attacking play was somewhat blunt for much of the match, they created more chances than their opponents and showed greater urgency in the closing stages. Their persistence paid off with a dramatic late goal, a testament to their fighting spirit and tactical discipline. The backline, marshaled by L. Mbeka and Elliot Owen, kept Sutton's attacking trio at bay, while Kallan Murphy's late strike was the decisive moment. Guiseley also showed set-piece threat, winning seven corners, and were not afraid to get stuck in, committing 16 fouls and picking up three yellow cards.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Sutton Utd
Sutton United will rue their inability to convert possession into meaningful chances, as their 4-3-3 setup failed to break down a resolute Guiseley defense. Despite seeing more of the ball (54% possession) and matching Guiseley for corners, Sutton managed just one shot on target from seven attempts. Their midfield trio, led by C. Carter and J. Taylor, controlled spells of the game but lacked the cutting edge in the final third. Defensively, Sutton were solid for 89 minutes, with B. Topalloj and A. Kirk keeping Guiseley's forwards mostly quiet until the late concession. However, their attacking trio, including E. Osadebe and S. Folarin, struggled to make an impact, and the team’s discipline was tested with 22 fouls and three yellow cards.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Guiseley set up in a classic 4-4-2, focusing on defensive organization and compactness, which frustrated Sutton’s attempts to play through the middle. The home side looked to exploit set pieces and wide areas, as evidenced by their seven corners. Sutton United, meanwhile, deployed a 4-3-3, aiming for midfield control and width through S. Folarin and E. Osadebe, but their attacks often fizzled out against Guiseley’s disciplined back line. Both teams were aggressive off the ball, resulting in a high foul count and frequent stoppages. The lack of clear-cut chances highlighted the tactical stalemate, only broken by Guiseley’s late push and Murphy’s clinical finish. Substitutions and tactical tweaks were limited, with both managers largely sticking to their starting formations.
Turning Point
Kallan Murphy’s 90th-minute goal, which broke the deadlock after a tense and evenly-matched contest.
Man of the Match
Kallan Murphy
Delivered the match-winning goal in the dying moments and worked tirelessly up front.
Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd: Match Preview
Guiseley AFC enter this FA Cup tie in irresistible form, having won each of their last five matches across all competitions and conceding only twice in that run. Their attack has been especially sharp, with 11 goals scored in those five games and three clean sheets to their name. Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have mixed results in their last five (WLWWL), but their recent 2-0 win over Aldershot Town and a cup victory against Truro City show they retain the capacity to assert themselves against lower-league opposition.
The tactical battle is likely to hinge on the opening stages, as both sides have made a habit of striking early—Guiseley have scored four first-half goals in their last five, while Sutton have matched that output with five. Defensively, Guiseley’s numbers are impressive but come against less challenging opposition, and Sutton’s two clean sheets in five suggest some vulnerability. Set-piece threat may play a role, with Guiseley registering seven corners in their last FA Cup outing, while Sutton’s discipline has been patchy, averaging just under one card per game recently.
Given Guiseley’s momentum and Sutton’s higher-division experience, the model anticipates a competitive tie. Guiseley’s confidence and home form should keep them in contention, but Sutton’s ability to start quickly and their superior historical record make them slight favourites. Expect a match with chances at both ends, but Sutton’s extra quality should see them edge through.
How Guiseley AFC and Sutton Utd Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Guiseley AFClast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sutton Utdlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Guiseley AFC are in the midst of a perfect five-match spell, combining attacking fluency with defensive solidity—11 goals scored, just two conceded, and three clean sheets. Sutton Utd’s recent form is more mixed (WLWWL), but they’ve shown resilience with two cup wins and a convincing 2-0 league victory last time out. Momentum is firmly with Guiseley, but Sutton’s pedigree keeps them dangerous.
Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd that most previews miss.
- 1Guiseley have scored in every one of their last five matches, averaging 2.2 goals per game and failing to score in none.
- 2Sutton Utd have netted five first-half goals in their last five outings, showing a clear trend for early attacking intent.
- 3Three of the last four head-to-head meetings have been won by Sutton Utd, with no draws in that span.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd?
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The Case For This Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd Prediction
Guiseley AFC arrive riding a remarkable five-match winning streak, sweeping aside both league and cup opposition with an average of 2.2 goals per game and conceding just twice in that run. Sutton Utd, though inconsistent, have shown flashes of their National League quality, including a recent 2-0 win and a pair of cup victories. The contest sets up as a classic FA Cup test of momentum versus pedigree, with Guiseley’s surging form facing its toughest examination yet. Tactically, Guiseley’s attack has been relentless, particularly in the first half where they’ve struck four times in their last five. Sutton, by contrast, have been quick starters themselves, scoring five first-half goals in their last five outings but also conceding early on occasion. Both sides have kept multiple clean sheets recently, but Sutton’s defensive record is less convincing away from home, and Guiseley’s numbers are inflated by lower-tier opposition. Set-piece data is limited, but Guiseley’s seven corners in their last FA Cup tie hint at a willingness to force pressure. The model expects Sutton’s higher baseline quality to eventually tell, but not without resistance. Guiseley’s form and home advantage should keep them competitive, especially early, but Sutton’s experience and ability to capitalise on fast starts make them favourites to progress. Expect a narrow away win, with both sides likely to find the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have scored more first-half than second-half goals in their recent form, suggesting a lively opening period.
Defence
- →Guiseley AFC are on a five-match winning streak, scoring 11 and conceding just 2 in that span.
Match Context
- →Sutton Utd have won three of their last five, including two cup ties, and have a superior historical record in this matchup.
Where the Model Sees Value: Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Sutton Utd Win
Sutton Utd’s higher division pedigree and three wins from four historical meetings give them the edge, but Guiseley’s five-match winning streak tempers full confidence.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Guiseley average 2.2 goals scored per game in their last five, and Sutton Utd’s recent matches have seen both teams scoring and conceding early, suggesting an open contest.
Read more ↓
Double Chance: Draw or Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd have avoided defeat in three of their last five, and Guiseley, despite momentum, face a step up in opposition quality.
More FA Cup Predictions
🚩 Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Guiseley AFC and 5.5 for Sutton Utd, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
What History Says: Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd have won three of the last four meetings with Guiseley, including a 2-0 away win and a 4-0 home triumph. Guiseley’s only win came at home in 2017, but the overall trend favours Sutton, with no draws and a recurring pattern of away success.
Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
2
Guiseley AFC wins
0
Draws
3
Sutton Utd wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd
With no bookmaker odds available, it’s not possible to quantify value edges for this fixture. However, the model’s probabilities suggest Sutton Utd are rightful favourites, but Guiseley’s red-hot form could mean the market underestimates their upset potential if odds are set solely on league status.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds were available at the time of analysis, so value calculations are omitted.
- ⚠️Standings data is missing, limiting context on Sutton Utd’s current league position and away form.
- ⚠️Recent opposition quality for Guiseley is lower than Sutton’s typical opponents, which may inflate their form stats.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Guiseley AFC 1–2 Sutton UtdThe model calls a 2-1 away win for Sutton Utd, primarily on the strength of their superior head-to-head record and higher-division experience. Guiseley’s five-match winning streak and attacking momentum pose a genuine threat, but the jump in opposition quality is significant. The most plausible way this prediction falters is if Guiseley’s confidence and home advantage translate into an early lead that Sutton struggle to overturn.
Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd: Common Questions
Who will win Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd?
Sutton Utd are favoured with a 44% win probability, compared to 24% for Guiseley and 32% for the draw. Sutton’s historical dominance and higher league status give them the edge, though Guiseley’s recent form makes this closer than the gulf in divisions might suggest.
Can Guiseley’s winning streak continue against Sutton Utd?
Guiseley have won five straight, scoring 11 and conceding just 2, but face a step up against Sutton. The model gives them a 24% chance of victory, reflecting both their momentum and the challenge posed by higher-tier opposition.
Will both teams score in Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd?
There’s a 48% probability for both teams to score, with Guiseley having found the net in each of their last five and Sutton conceding in three of their last five. The data points to a good chance of goals at both ends.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.