Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Predictions
Eliteserien · Norway
Ham-Kam
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 1
Aalesund
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
6.5/10Ham-Kam and Aalesund Share the Spoils in Tactical Stalemate at Briskeby Arena
Ham-Kam and Aalesund played out a 1-1 draw at Briskeby Arena in a match defined by tactical discipline and brief flashes of attacking quality. Both sides deployed five-man defences and mirrored 5-3-2 formations, leading to a tightly contested midfield battle and limited clear-cut chances. The visitors struck first on the stroke of halftime, but Ham-Kam responded early in the second half, setting up a tense but ultimately even final act. Ham-Kam enjoyed the lion’s share of possession (59%) and were more proactive in attack, registering 12 shots with 6 on target and winning 8 corners. However, Aalesund’s compact defensive setup and clinical counterpunching kept them in the contest. Despite both teams’ efforts, neither could find a decisive winner, leaving each to settle for a point that reflected the balance of play.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
45' — Goal
Kristian Lonebu puts Aalesund ahead just before halftime, finishing a swift counterattack.
55' — Goal
Markus Johnsgard levels for Ham-Kam, capitalizing on sustained pressure after the restart.
67' — Yellow Card
Ham-Kam’s Fredrik Sjolstad booked for a tactical foul as Aalesund threatened on the break.
78' — Yellow Card
Aalesund’s Simen Haram receives a yellow for a late challenge in midfield.
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam started with a 5-3-2 formation, looking to control the game from midfield and exploit the flanks. They dominated possession and created more chances, particularly after falling behind just before halftime. The home side responded well, equalizing early in the second half and maintaining attacking pressure, but struggled to break down Aalesund’s disciplined back line in the closing stages. Defensively, Ham-Kam were generally solid, but a lapse just before the break cost them. Their midfield trio worked hard to recycle possession and push forward, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third prevented them from converting dominance into victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Aalesund
Aalesund matched Ham-Kam’s 5-3-2 setup and focused on defensive solidity and quick transitions. They were content to concede possession (41%) but looked dangerous on the break, capitalizing on a rare opportunity to take the lead just before halftime. Their defensive unit held firm under sustained Ham-Kam pressure, with goalkeeper Luca Podlech making several important stops. While Aalesund’s attacking output was more limited (10 shots, 2 on target), their organization and work rate frustrated the hosts and ensured they left Hamar with a hard-earned point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in 5-3-2 formations, prioritizing defensive solidity and compactness. Ham-Kam sought to control the game through possession and width, often pushing their wingbacks high up the pitch to stretch Aalesund’s back five. Their midfield trio was instrumental in recycling possession and pressing high after turnovers. Aalesund, meanwhile, were content to sit deep, absorb pressure, and break quickly when opportunities arose. Their disciplined shape limited Ham-Kam’s space in the final third, while their forwards looked to exploit gaps on the counter. Substitutions in the second half aimed to inject fresh legs into midfield, but neither side deviated significantly from their initial tactical blueprint.
Turning Point
Markus Johnsgard’s equalizer in the 55th minute shifted momentum back to Ham-Kam and set the stage for a tense, evenly contested second half.
Man of the Match
Markus Johnsgard
Scored the crucial equalizer and was a constant driving force in Ham-Kam’s midfield.
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund: Match Preview
Ham-Kam enter this fixture seventh in the Eliteserien, buoyed by a 3-0 away win over Valerenga but having lost three of their previous four. Their home form remains a strength, with five wins from seven at Briskeby Arena and only two defeats, while Aalesund sit 13th, drawing four of their last five league matches and struggling to convert performances into wins.
The statistical matchup points to goals: Ham-Kam average 1.86 scored and 1.57 conceded per home game, while Aalesund concede 2.33 per away outing and have failed to keep a single clean sheet all season. Both sides' matches are frequently high-scoring (Ham-Kam 73%, Aalesund 64% over 2.5 goals), and Aalesund's last five league games have produced 18 goals in total. First-half goals have been limited (just two for Ham-Kam in their last five), but both teams tend to open up after the break, with 11 of their combined last 12 goals coming in the second half.
The model expects Ham-Kam's greater attacking efficiency at home to edge a contest where both teams are likely to score. Aalesund's consistent attacking threat—averaging 12.2 shots and 4.8 on target in the last five—should keep them in the game, but their defensive record away from home tips the balance towards a 2-1 home win.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Ham-Kam vs Aalesund that most previews miss.
- 1Ham-Kam have seen over 2.5 goals in 11 of their 15 league matches this season (73%).
- 2Aalesund have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their 14 league games (0%).
- 3The last three competitive H2H meetings have all finished level after 90 minutes.
Who do you think wins: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams are above league average for over 2.5 goals (Ham-Kam 73%, Aalesund 64%), and their recent defensive records are poor (Ham-Kam 2.0 conceded, Aalesund 2.2 conceded per last 5), supporting a high-goal environment.
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BTTS: Yes
Aalesund have scored in all of their last five league matches and Ham-Kam have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five; both teams' BTTS rates are high (Ham-Kam 2/5, Aalesund 4/5).
Read more ↓
More Eliteserien Predictions
The Case For This Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Prediction
Statistically, this fixture projects as a high-variance, mid-table clash with a bias towards goals. Ham-Kam's home scoring rate (1.86 per game) and Aalesund's away defensive frailty (2.33 conceded per away match) set the stage for an open contest, while both sides have shown a tendency to concede in bunches. The model expects Ham-Kam's home advantage and slightly higher attacking efficiency to be decisive, but Aalesund's recent uptick in shot volume and consistent scoring keep the draw and high-scoring outcomes firmly in play.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Ham-Kam's home record: 5 wins from 7, averaging 1.86 goals scored per home game.
Defence
- →Aalesund have not kept a clean sheet all season (0% clean sheet rate) and concede 2.33 per away match.
Match Context
- →Both teams are above 60% for over 2.5 goals on the season.
🚩 Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Ham-Kam and 5.2 for Aalesund, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Ham-Kam and Aalesund Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Ham-Kamlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Aalesundlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Ham-Kam's recent form is patchy, with a win, a draw, and three defeats in their last five, but they arrive off the back of a convincing 3-0 victory away at Valerenga. Aalesund, meanwhile, are drawing games at a high rate—four of their last five—while showing improved attacking output but little defensive solidity.
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 68.75% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund
The last ten meetings are evenly split, with five draws, two Ham-Kam wins, and three Aalesund victories. The reverse fixture this season finished 2-2, and three of the last four have ended all square, suggesting a tendency for these sides to cancel each other out.
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Ham-Kam wins
6
Draws
2
Aalesund wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund
With no bookmaker odds available, value cannot be directly assessed. However, the model's high probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score suggest these markets would be attractive if priced near or above 1.70. The draw also appears more likely than average, so any generous draw odds could offer value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent form is volatile for both sides, with Ham-Kam alternating wins and losses and Aalesund drawing frequently.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but possible late squad news could affect lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Ham-Kam 2–1 AalesundThe model projects a 2-1 win for Ham-Kam, anchored by their strong home scoring rate (1.86 per game) and Aalesund's porous away defence. The likeliest way this prediction misses is if Aalesund's recent attacking consistency (scoring in five straight) leads to another high-scoring draw, as seen in their last H2H.
Ham-Kam vs Aalesund: Common Questions
Who will win Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
Ham-Kam are favoured with a 45% probability, compared to 23% for Aalesund and 32% for the draw. The model leans Ham-Kam due to their home record and Aalesund's defensive issues, but the draw is also a significant risk given recent H2H results.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62%. Aalesund have scored in all of their last five league matches, and Ham-Kam have conceded in four of their last five, making BTTS a statistically strong outcome.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Ham-Kam vs Aalesund?
There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both teams' season rates above 60% (Ham-Kam 73%, Aalesund 64%) and recent matches for both sides featuring frequent high scores.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ham-Kam vs Aalesund: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 2 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.