Hartlepool vs Worthing Predictions
National League · England
Hartlepool
Full Time
1 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 2
Worthing
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
7.2/10Late Surge Seals Worthing’s Impressive 3-1 Victory at Hartlepool
Worthing produced a clinical away performance at Victoria Park, overcoming Hartlepool 3-1 in an entertaining National League clash. The visitors took control with a goal in the 35th minute and doubled their lead early in the second half. Hartlepool threatened a comeback with a strike in the 77th minute, but Worthing extinguished any hope with a decisive goal right at the death. Despite the home crowd’s encouragement, Hartlepool struggled to contain Worthing’s attacking threat and were ultimately undone by the visitors’ sharpness in front of goal. Worthing’s disciplined defensive display and timely finishing proved the difference, while Hartlepool’s late rally was not enough to salvage a result.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 3
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
35' — Goal
Worthing take the lead with the opening goal.
59' — Goal
Worthing double their advantage early in the second half.
77' — Goal
Hartlepool pull one back to make it 2-1 and spark hopes of a comeback.
90' — Goal
Worthing seal the win with a third goal in stoppage time.
Hartlepool
Hartlepool started brightly but were punished for lapses in concentration, conceding first in the 35th minute. They showed resilience to pull one back in the 77th minute, briefly igniting hopes of a comeback. However, their inability to sustain attacking pressure and defensive frailties were exposed as they conceded again in stoppage time. The single yellow card reflected a generally disciplined but ultimately ineffective approach.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Worthing
Worthing delivered a composed and efficient performance on the road, striking first in the 35th minute to set the tone. Their second goal just after the break gave them breathing space, and despite conceding late on, they remained composed and sealed the win with a third goal in stoppage time. Three yellow cards indicated a combative approach, but their attacking efficiency and game management stood out.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With lineups unavailable, both teams’ tactical intentions were nonetheless clear from the flow of the match. Worthing’s ability to strike first and then double their lead suggests a well-organized side, likely set up to exploit spaces and counter-attack efficiently. Their three yellow cards indicate a willingness to disrupt Hartlepool’s rhythm and protect their advantage. Hartlepool, meanwhile, showed some attacking intent, especially after falling behind, but defensive vulnerabilities and a lack of sustained pressure limited their effectiveness. Substitutions and tactical tweaks after conceding the second goal helped them pull one back, but they were ultimately caught out chasing the game late on.
Turning Point
Worthing’s second goal in the 59th minute gave them a crucial cushion and forced Hartlepool to chase the game, ultimately opening up space for Worthing to exploit late on.
Man of the Match
Worthing Second Goalscorer
Scored the pivotal second goal and was instrumental in Worthing’s attacking threat.
Hartlepool vs Worthing: Match Preview
Hartlepool enter this fixture on the back of a poor run, losing four of their last five in all competitions and scoring just once in that stretch. Their home record in the league is more robust—two wins from three and only one goal conceded—but their attack has dried up, failing to score in four of the last five overall. Worthing, meanwhile, sit four places below in the standings but have shown greater attacking verve, netting 11 times in six league matches and scoring at least twice in each of their last three away games.
The statistical matchup is defined by Worthing's high-event football: their matches average 3.83 goals, with 83% going over 2.5, and they have both scored and conceded seven goals in three away fixtures. Hartlepool's defensive record at home (1 goal conceded in 3) contrasts sharply with their recent form, where they've conceded six in five. The first half could be crucial—Worthing have scored five first-half goals in their last five, while Hartlepool have not found the net before the break in that span. Cards could also be a factor, with Hartlepool collecting 18 yellows and 2 reds in their last five matches.
The model projects a match tilted towards Worthing's attacking strengths, with Hartlepool's lack of firepower likely to be exposed if the visitors maintain their scoring rate. The most probable scenario is Worthing outscoring a home side that has struggled to create and convert chances, especially if the away team start quickly as their recent first-half numbers suggest.
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
BTTS: Yes
64%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hartlepool vs Worthing Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hartlepool vs Worthing that most previews miss.
- 1Worthing's away games have averaged 4.67 goals per match (7 scored, 7 conceded in 3).
- 2Hartlepool have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches, with only 1 goal in that period.
- 383% of Worthing's league matches have finished over 2.5 goals this season.
Who do you think wins: Hartlepool vs Worthing?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hartlepool vs Worthing(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Worthing's matches have seen an average of 3.83 goals per game this season, with 83% finishing over 2.5, while Hartlepool's defensive numbers have softened in recent weeks.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Worthing Win
Worthing have averaged 2.33 goals per away game and face a Hartlepool side that has failed to score in four of their last five, suggesting the away side's attack is likely to prevail.
Read more ↓
More National League Predictions
The Case For This Hartlepool vs Worthing Prediction
Statistical indicators point to a high-scoring contest at Victoria Park, with Worthing's potent attack facing a Hartlepool side struggling to find the net. Hartlepool's home defensive record is strong, but their recent form and attacking output have dipped, while Worthing's matches trend heavily towards goals at both ends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Hartlepool have failed to score in four of their last five matches.
Defence
- →Worthing average 1.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game this season.
Match Context
- →Worthing's away games average 4.67 total goals per match.
How Hartlepool and Worthing Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hartlepool vs Worthing Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Hartlepoollast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Worthinglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Hartlepool's recent form is concerning, with four losses in their last five and only one goal scored in that span. Their home league record is better, but the lack of attacking output is a clear issue. Worthing, in contrast, have found the net consistently—1.83 goals per game this season—and have scored at least twice in each of their last three away fixtures, though their defensive record remains leaky.
Hartlepool vs Worthing — Last 9 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 77.78% of games this season
What History Says: Hartlepool vs Worthing
There is no recent head-to-head data between Hartlepool and Worthing, making it difficult to identify matchup-specific trends or psychological edges. This increases the uncertainty around how the teams' contrasting styles will interact.
Hartlepool vs Worthing Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Hartlepool wins
0
Draws
1
Worthing wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hartlepool vs Worthing
With no bookmaker odds available, value assessment is limited to model-driven probabilities. The strongest statistical edge is in the over 2.5 goals market, where Worthing's matches have an 83% over rate compared to a typical league baseline. The away win is also modelled higher than average due to Worthing's attacking output and Hartlepool's scoring issues.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hartlepool vs Worthing
- ⚠️No head-to-head data available for these teams at this level.
- ⚠️Recent sample sizes are small (6-7 league games each), increasing variance.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be quantified.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hartlepool 1–2 WorthingThe model predicts a 2-1 away win for Worthing, driven primarily by their league-leading over 2.5 goal rate and Hartlepool's ongoing attacking struggles. The biggest risk to this outcome is Hartlepool's historically solid home defensive record, which could suppress Worthing's output and tilt the match towards a low-scoring draw.
Hartlepool vs Worthing: Common Questions
Who will win Hartlepool vs Worthing?
Worthing are given a 42% chance of victory, compared to 30% for Hartlepool and 28% for the draw. The away side's superior attacking numbers and Hartlepool's recent scoring drought tip the balance in Worthing's favour.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hartlepool vs Worthing?
There is a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals, reflecting Worthing's 83% over 2.5 rate and the high average goals in their matches (3.83 per game). Hartlepool's defensive record is decent at home, but Worthing's style pushes this fixture towards a higher goal count.
Are both teams likely to score in this match?
Both teams to score is rated at 58%, with Worthing scoring in every league match so far and Hartlepool struggling to find the net, having failed to score in four of their last five. The main risk to BTTS is Hartlepool's blunt attack.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hartlepool vs Worthing: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.