Hartpury University vs Weymouth Predictions
FA Trophy · England
Hartpury University
Full Time
2 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 2
Weymouth
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Weymouth Win
Match Result
6.5/10Weymouth Edge Hartpury University on Penalties After Dramatic FA Trophy Clash
Weymouth advanced to the next round of the FA Trophy after a tense encounter against Hartpury University, ultimately prevailing 3-2 on penalties following a match that could not be settled in regulation time. Both sides battled fiercely, with neither able to gain a decisive advantage during normal play, leading to the ultimate test of nerves from the spot. Despite the lack of detailed match statistics, the contest was clearly a closely-fought affair, as evidenced by the deadlock that persisted until penalties. In the shootout, Weymouth held their nerve to edge out their spirited hosts, sending their traveling supporters into celebration and leaving Hartpury University to rue what might have been.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
2 - 3
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
Full Time' — End of Regulation
The match ended level after regular time, necessitating a penalty shootout.
Penalties' — Penalty Shootout
Weymouth converted three penalties to Hartpury University's two, clinching the win.
Hartpury University
Hartpury University matched their more experienced opponents stride for stride, pushing Weymouth all the way to a penalty shootout. The home side showed commendable resilience and composure throughout the contest, twice finding the net and keeping the tie alive until the very end. However, their inability to convert key chances in regular time ultimately proved costly, as they fell just short in the lottery of penalties.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Weymouth
Weymouth showed their experience in knockout football, keeping their cool in a tense and evenly-matched contest. Despite being unable to pull away from Hartpury University during open play, the visitors held their nerve in the penalty shootout, converting three times to secure a hard-fought victory. Their ability to handle the pressure of the shootout ultimately made the difference on the day.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both lineups and formations unavailable, it is clear from the scoreline and the need for penalties that both sides were well-matched in terms of tactical discipline and defensive organization. Neither team was able to find a decisive breakthrough in open play, suggesting a cautious approach and perhaps a midfield battle that limited clear-cut chances. The shootout ultimately tested the players' mental strength more than tactical nuance, with Weymouth's composure from the spot proving decisive.
Turning Point
The penalty shootout, where Weymouth converted three spot-kicks to Hartpury University's two, decided the match.
Man of the Match
Weymouth Penalty Takers
Held their nerve in the decisive shootout to secure progression.
Hartpury University vs Weymouth: Match Preview
Both Hartpury University and Weymouth enter this FA Trophy clash off emphatic opening-round wins, with Hartpury dispatching Exmouth 4-1 and Weymouth hammering Melksham Town 5-1. Recent form slightly favours the visitors, who have two wins in their last five and have avoided defeat more consistently than Hartpury, who failed to score in two of their last five outings. With no league table or H2H context, both sides' early cup form and last season's closing results provide the main reference points.
The statistical matchup leans towards goals. Hartpury's last five matches average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Weymouth's equivalent figures are 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded. Both teams' only competitive fixtures this season cleared the 2.5 goal line comfortably. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in their sole cup outing, and both have shown a tendency towards BTTS (three of last five for each). The lack of detailed shot or set-piece data limits deeper tactical inference, but the raw scoring rates suggest open play.
Model projections favour Weymouth, primarily on the strength of their attack and slightly more reliable recent record. The likeliest scenario is an away win in a match featuring at least three goals, with Weymouth's superior firepower overcoming a Hartpury side that has shown both scoring potential and vulnerability.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.75
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hartpury University vs Weymouth Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hartpury University vs Weymouth that most previews miss.
- 1Weymouth have scored five goals in two of their last five matches, averaging 2.4 per game in that span.
- 2Hartpury University have failed to score in 40% of their last five matches, despite a 4-1 win in their most recent outing.
- 3Both teams' only competitive matches this season finished over 2.5 goals, with a combined 10 goals scored.
Who do you think wins: Hartpury University vs Weymouth?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hartpury University vs Weymouth(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Weymouth Win
Weymouth's last five matches average 2.4 goals scored per game and only one loss, while Hartpury University have failed to score in two of their last five and average just 1.4 goals per match in that stretch.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams' only competitive matches this season finished over 2.5 goals (Hartpury 4-1, Weymouth 5-1), and their last five match averages are 1.4 and 2.4 goals scored per game respectively.
Read more ↓
More FA Trophy Predictions
The Case For This Hartpury University vs Weymouth Prediction
Statistical rates point to a moderately high-scoring tie, with Weymouth's attack trending stronger than Hartpury's based on recent and season-long output. The away side's superior scoring rate and marginally tighter defensive record tip the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Weymouth average 2.4 goals scored per game across their last five matches, compared to Hartpury's 1.4.
Match Context
- →Both teams' only competitive matches this season ended with five or more total goals.
- →Hartpury have failed to score in two of their last five, while Weymouth have only one such blank.
How Hartpury University and Weymouth Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hartpury University vs Weymouth Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Hartpury Universitylast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Weymouthlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Weymouth's recent form is underpinned by two high-scoring wins in their last five, including a 5-1 FA Trophy victory, and only one defeat. Hartpury University are less consistent, with two losses and two games without scoring in their last five, but they did open their cup campaign with an emphatic 4-1 win.
Hartpury University vs Weymouth — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Hartpury University vs Weymouth
There is no head-to-head data available for this fixture, so no direct matchup trends or recurring scorelines can be referenced.
Hartpury University vs Weymouth Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Hartpury University wins
0
Draws
1
Weymouth wins
Things to Watch: Hartpury University vs Weymouth
- ⚠️No league standings or head-to-head data available, increasing uncertainty about relative team strength.
- ⚠️Very limited season sample size—only one competitive match each.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hartpury University 1–2 WeymouthThe model projects a 2-1 win for Weymouth, driven by their higher recent scoring rate (2.4 goals per game over the last five) and greater consistency in finding the net. The main risk comes from the extremely limited competitive sample—just one cup match each this season—so any strong form signal is tentative.
Hartpury University vs Weymouth: Common Questions
Who will win Hartpury University vs Weymouth?
Weymouth are modelled as 45% likely winners, compared to 28% for Hartpury University and 27% for the draw. This edge is based on Weymouth's stronger recent scoring output and fewer blanks in the last five matches.
Will both teams score in Hartpury University vs Weymouth?
There is a 54% probability for both teams to score, as both sides have seen BTTS in three of their last five matches and neither kept a clean sheet in their only competitive game this season.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Hartpury University vs Weymouth?
The model gives a 62% probability to over 2.5 goals, supported by both teams' recent matches averaging over 2.5 and their only competitive games this season ending 4-1 and 5-1.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hartpury University vs Weymouth: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 5 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.