Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Predictions
2. Bundesliga · Germany
Hertha BSC
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.1(+6% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.1
Model probability for the draw (30%) is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability (24.4%), indicating a small positive value. Both teams have shown inconsistency and a relatively high draw rate, especially Hertha at home.
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The Case For This Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction
Hertha BSC, coming off a much-needed win after a poor run, hosts a Greuther Fürth side fighting relegation with patchy away form. The hosts have struggled for goals recently but remain defensively solid, while Fürth's defensive frailty on the road is offset by their ability to score in most matches. Expect a tight contest, with Hertha slight favourites but a draw a real possibility.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Hertha's last 5 form is weak (WLLDL) with only 1 win, but they broke a losing streak last time out.
Defence
- →Fürth have lost 4 of their last 6 away games and concede over 2 goals per away match on average.
- →Hertha's home games are low scoring (16 scored, 18 conceded in 17 matches).
Match Context
- →Head-to-head favours Hertha at home (5 wins in 8 meetings), but recent matches have been close.
- →Fürth's BTTS rate is high (4/5), but Hertha have failed to score in 3 of last 5.
🚩 Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Hertha BSC and 7.6 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, for an expected total of 12.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (77%). Over 8.5: 85% · Over 10.5: 66%.
How Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hertha BSClast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
SpVgg Greuther Fürthlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Hertha BSC snapped a four-game winless run with a narrow home victory, but overall recent form is poor, with just one win and three goals scored in their last five. Greuther Fürth have been slightly more resilient, with a win, two draws, and two losses in their last five, scoring in four of those matches but continuing to leak goals.
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Head-to-head history strongly favours Hertha at home, though recent matches have been competitive, including a 3-3 draw earlier this season. Scorelines are often tight, with Hertha winning by a single goal margin in three of the last five meetings.
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
5
Hertha BSC wins
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
The model finds slight value in the draw, with a higher probability than implied by the odds. Bookmaker prices on 'under 2.5' and 'no BTTS' are too short relative to model estimates, so these markets are not recommended for value. The best edge appears in the 1x2 draw market, reflecting the teams' inconsistent form and tendency for close games.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- ⚠️Hertha's attack is inconsistent and reliant on a few key players.
- ⚠️Fürth's defensive record is poor, but their attack can surprise.
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is erratic, increasing draw likelihood.
- ⚠️Market odds on 'under' and 'no BTTS' are too short for value despite model leaning that way.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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