Hull City vs Brentford Predictions
Premier League · England
Hull City
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Brentford
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 2.1(+12% edge)
Recommended Bets: Hull City vs Brentford
Hull City vs Brentford: Match Preview
Hull City come into this fixture ninth in the table, with a modest return of two wins from seven and a current run of five without victory (form string: LDLDL). Their home record is more robust—unbeaten in three, including a clean sheet win over Manchester United—but recent draws against Everton and Aston Villa suggest a ceiling to their attacking output. Brentford, sitting sixth, have lost only once but are yet to win away, drawing all three road games and scoring five in those matches.
The statistical matchup is defined by Brentford’s superior attack (1.86 goals per game, 13.8 shots per last five) against a Hull side that concedes just 1.0 per match overall and 0.67 at home. Hull’s defensive structure is reflected in their 43% clean sheet rate, but their attack has failed to score in two of the last five. Brentford’s away games are high-event, with both teams scoring in four of their last five overall, but their away defence (5 conceded in 3) remains leaky. Set-piece data shows Hull averaging 6.4 corners per last five, while Brentford’s matches are less corner-heavy (3.4), and both sides average over 13 fouls per game, indicating a likely competitive midfield.
Given these rates, the model expects Brentford’s higher attacking baseline to tell over 90 minutes, but Hull’s home resilience and Brentford’s away draw habit keep the probabilities distributed. A 1-2 away win is the modal outcome, but the draw is a live risk—especially if Hull’s defence holds and Brentford’s attack underperforms on the road again.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hull City vs Brentford Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hull City vs Brentford that most previews miss.
- 1Brentford have drawn all three away league matches this season, with identical 2-2 and 1-1 scorelines in two of them.
- 2Hull’s last five matches average only 2.6 total goals, and they have failed to score in two of those.
- 3Both teams average over 13 fouls per game in their last five, suggesting a higher-than-average card count.
Who do you think wins: Hull City vs Brentford?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hull City vs Brentford(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.1
Model estimates a 42% chance of under 2.5 goals, while the odds imply only 47.6%—a 12% edge. Hull’s home matches average 2.0 goals, and Brentford’s away games see 3.33, but both sides have shown defensive resilience in several recent fixtures.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw@ 3.89
Draw probability is 28%, above the 26.7% implied by the odds. Brentford have drawn all three away league games, and Hull are unbeaten at home with two draws from three.
Read more ↓
More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Hull City vs Brentford Prediction
Statistical rates point to a moderately open contest, with Brentford’s higher attacking output likely to edge a Hull side that has struggled for cutting edge in recent weeks. Hull’s defensive structure at home (just two goals conceded in three) faces an away attack averaging 1.67 goals per trip, but Brentford’s inability to convert away draws into wins keeps the door open. The likeliest shape is a narrow Brentford victory, with a 1-2 scoreline reflecting the underlying scoring rates and both teams’ recent trends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Brentford average 1.86 goals scored per game this season, compared to Hull’s 1.14.
Defence
- →Hull are unbeaten at home (1W 2D), conceding only 0.67 goals per home match.
- →Brentford have drawn all three away league matches, scoring and conceding five.
🚩 Hull City vs Brentford Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.9 corners for Hull City and 4.2 for Brentford, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Hull City and Brentford Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hull City vs Brentford Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hull Citylast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Brentfordlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hull City are winless in their last five (LDLDL), with two home draws and a narrow defeat at Fulham highlighting their struggles to turn structure into points. Brentford, meanwhile, have lost only once in seven, but three straight away league draws point to a side that creates chances but doesn’t always convert them on the road.
Hull City vs Brentford — Last 7 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 71.43% of games this season
What History Says: Hull City vs Brentford
The historical record slightly favours Hull at home, with three wins from the last four at the MKM Stadium, though the most recent meeting dates back to 2020. Both teams have scored in four of the last five encounters, and high-scoring games have been common in this matchup.
Hull City vs Brentford Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
4
Hull City wins
2
Draws
2
Brentford wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hull City vs Brentford
The model identifies value on under 2.5 goals at 2.10, with a 12% edge over the market’s implied probability, reflecting Hull’s defensive home record and Brentford’s away draws. The draw at 3.75 also shows a 5% edge, supported by Brentford’s 100% away draw rate and Hull’s unbeaten home record.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hull City vs Brentford
- ⚠️Small sample size on home/away splits (three matches each) limits confidence in those rates.
- ⚠️Hull’s attack has failed to score in two of their last five, raising volatility in goal markets.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hull City 1–2 BrentfordThe model projects a 2-1 win for Brentford, driven by their 1.86 goals per game average and Hull’s limited home scoring. The strongest data point is Brentford’s consistent away scoring, but their draw tendency on the road and Hull’s home defensive record make a stalemate the main risk to this forecast.
Hull City vs Brentford: Common Questions
Who will win Hull City vs Brentford?
Brentford are favoured with a 53% model probability of victory, compared to 19% for Hull and 28% for the draw. Brentford’s stronger attack and Hull’s limited home scoring underpin this edge.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Brentford?
There’s a 54% probability of both teams scoring, with Hull’s home matches and Brentford’s away games both trending towards BTTS in recent weeks. Brentford have seen both teams score in four of their last five overall.
Is under 2.5 goals a value bet for Hull City vs Brentford?
Yes, the model gives a 42% chance of under 2.5 goals, which is higher than the 38% implied by odds of 2.10. Hull’s home matches average just 2.0 goals, and Brentford’s away games, while higher, have been draw-prone.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hull City vs Brentford: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Hull City vs Brentford Resources
Hull City Predictions
All Hull City fixtures & tips
Brentford Predictions
All Brentford fixtures & tips
Hull City vs Brentford Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Sunderland vs Brentford
Brentford — next match predictions
Premier League Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results