Kilmarnock vs Dundee Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Kilmarnock
Full Time
3 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Dundee
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.6(+9% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Late Surge Seals Kilmarnock’s 3-1 Triumph Over Dundee at Rugby Park
Kilmarnock delivered a commanding performance in front of their home fans at Rugby Park, overcoming Dundee 3-1 thanks to a flurry of late goals. After a tightly contested first half, the hosts broke the deadlock in the 62nd minute, only for Dundee to briefly threaten a comeback with a 77th-minute equalizer. However, Kilmarnock’s relentless pressure paid dividends as they struck twice in the final five minutes to secure all three points. The match was characterized by Kilmarnock’s attacking intent, as they racked up 19 shots with 8 on target and edged possession at 52%. Dundee, despite showing resilience and physicality (committing 18 fouls and picking up 3 yellow cards), struggled to match the hosts’ firepower, managing just 2 shots on target from 7 attempts. Ultimately, Kilmarnock’s late-game quality and depth proved decisive in a contest that saw momentum swing dramatically in the closing stages.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
3 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
62' — Goal
Kilmarnock open the scoring after sustained pressure, breaking the deadlock.
77' — Goal
Dundee equalize, capitalizing on a rare attacking opportunity to level the match.
85' — Goal
Kilmarnock retake the lead with a well-worked move, regaining momentum.
90' — Goal
Kilmarnock seal the victory with a third goal in stoppage time.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both sides pick up multiple bookings in a physical encounter (Kilmarnock 4, Dundee 3).
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock showcased attacking flair and persistence, dominating both the shot count and possession. Their 4-3-2-1 formation allowed for fluid movement in midfield and consistent pressure on Dundee’s back line. The hosts were patient, breaking through in the second half and responding impressively after Dundee’s equalizer, netting twice late on to seal the win. Discipline was a slight concern, as they collected four yellow cards, but their attacking intent and late-game composure stood out.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Dundee
Dundee battled hard and showed flashes of resilience, particularly with their 77th-minute equalizer that briefly put them back in contention. Lining up in a 3-5-2, they sought to congest midfield and hit on the break, but struggled to create clear chances, managing just 2 shots on target. Their physical approach disrupted Kilmarnock at times but ultimately led to a high foul count and three bookings. Defensive lapses in the final minutes proved costly as they conceded twice late on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Kilmarnock’s 4-3-2-1 formation provided balance, with a compact midfield trio supporting two advanced playmakers behind the striker. This structure allowed them to dominate possession and create numerous chances, as evidenced by their 19 shots and 8 on target. The full-backs provided width, stretching Dundee’s back three and opening spaces for late runners. Dundee’s 3-5-2 aimed to crowd the midfield and limit Kilmarnock’s creativity, but their inability to transition quickly from defense to attack left them isolated up front. Substitutions in the second half injected fresh legs for Kilmarnock, helping them regain control after Dundee’s equalizer and push for the win. Set pieces and wide play were crucial in breaking down Dundee’s resistance late on.
Turning Point
Kilmarnock’s second goal in the 85th minute, which restored their lead and shifted momentum irreversibly in their favor.
Man of the Match
J. Hugill
Led the line with energy, linked up play, and was central to Kilmarnock’s late surge with crucial involvement in the decisive goals.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
28%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Kilmarnock vs Dundee Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Kilmarnock vs Dundee(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.6
Both teams have similar recent form and the H2H record is draw-heavy, with 5 of the last 10 meetings ending level. The model gives a 37% chance of a draw (implied odds 2.70), but the market offers 3.6, presenting a value opportunity.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.22
Both teams have struggled for goals at times, with low shots on target averages and a strong trend towards under 2.5 in recent H2H and season stats. However, the edge is small due to the low odds.
Read more ↓
More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Kilmarnock vs Dundee Prediction
This is a clash between two closely matched sides, both enjoying a mini-resurgence with back-to-back wins. Kilmarnock have tightened up defensively and are hard to beat at home, while Dundee's away record is poor but they've shown some recent improvement. With both teams averaging under 1.5 goals conceded in their last 5 and a history of low-scoring, tight encounters, another draw or narrow win either way looks likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams are on a two-match winning streak, boosting confidence.
Attack
- →Recent H2H matches are draw-heavy and low scoring.
Defence
- →Both teams average under 2 goals scored/conceded in last 5.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Kilmarnock's home record is stronger than Dundee's away record.
🚩 Kilmarnock vs Dundee Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Kilmarnock and 4.3 for Dundee, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Kilmarnock and Dundee Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Kilmarnock vs Dundee Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Kilmarnocklast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundeelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Kilmarnock have found form at the right time, winning their last two matches with clean sheets and scoring three in each. Dundee have also won their last two, including a comfortable 3-0 at home, but their away form remains a concern. Both teams have shown defensive improvement, each keeping two clean sheets in their last five.
Kilmarnock vs Dundee — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65.79% of games this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Kilmarnock vs Dundee
The head-to-head record is very balanced, with draws dominating recent fixtures. The last three league meetings at Rugby Park have ended level or with a single-goal margin, and neither side has managed more than two goals in any of the last five encounters. Expect another tight match.
Kilmarnock vs Dundee Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Kilmarnock wins
4
Draws
3
Dundee wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Kilmarnock vs Dundee
The biggest value appears on the draw, where the model's probability is significantly higher than the market's implied odds. Goal markets are heavily skewed to the under, but the odds offer little value. BTTS 'no' is overpriced by the market, so not recommended despite a slight model lean.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Kilmarnock vs Dundee
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, possession) are missing, reducing model precision.
- ⚠️End-of-season motivation and rotation risk cannot be fully quantified.
- ⚠️Market odds are very defensive on goal markets, limiting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Kilmarnock vs Dundee: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.