Kilmarnock vs Dundee Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Kilmarnock
Full Time
2 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Dundee
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.55(+10% edge)
Match Result
7.9/10Late Murray Equaliser Earns Dundee a Point in Four-Goal Thriller at Rugby Park
Kilmarnock and Dundee played out an entertaining 2-2 draw at Rugby Park, with both sides enjoying spells of dominance but ultimately unable to find a winner. The hosts took the lead early through Bruce Anderson, but Dundee responded well, levelling through Simon Murray before the break. Kilmarnock regained the advantage before halftime, only for Murray to strike again late on and secure a valuable point for the visitors. Both teams showed attacking intent, with Kilmarnock edging possession at 52% and firing 13 shots, though only 3 were on target. Dundee, meanwhile, were more clinical with their chances, hitting 6 shots on target from 8 attempts. The match was punctuated by a flurry of fouls—24 from the hosts and 7 from Dundee—reflecting the competitive edge throughout. In the end, neither side could find the decisive breakthrough, settling for a share of the spoils.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
14' — Goal
Bruce Anderson puts Kilmarnock ahead with a well-taken finish.
24' — Goal
Simon Murray equalises for Dundee, capitalising on a defensive lapse.
33' — Goal
Kilmarnock restore their lead before halftime.
81' — Goal
Simon Murray scores his second to level the match late on.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Kilmarnock pick up 4 bookings in a combative display, while Dundee receive 2.
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock started brightly, taking the initiative in front of their home fans and pressing high up the pitch. Bruce Anderson opened the scoring in the 14th minute, and the hosts looked the more likely side for much of the first half, regaining the lead after Dundee's equaliser. However, despite creating more chances, their finishing let them down, with just 3 of their 13 shots finding the target. Their aggressive approach was evident in the 24 fouls committed and 4 yellow cards, which may have disrupted their rhythm late on. Defensively, Kilmarnock struggled to contain Simon Murray, who twice found the net for Dundee. While the midfield worked hard to control possession, lapses at the back ultimately cost them two points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Dundee
Dundee showed resilience to twice come from behind, with Simon Murray proving the difference in attack. Despite having less possession (48%), Dundee were efficient, registering 6 shots on target from just 8 attempts. Their defensive shape in the 4-1-4-1 formation allowed them to absorb pressure and hit Kilmarnock on the break. The midfield, marshalled by Ethan Hamilton, worked tirelessly to disrupt Kilmarnock's rhythm and launch counter-attacks. Defensively, Dundee kept their composure under pressure, and their discipline was commendable with only 7 fouls and 2 yellow cards. Their late equaliser was a testament to their persistence and tactical organisation.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Kilmarnock lined up in a classic 4-4-2, seeking width and directness, with Anderson and Hugill leading the line. Their approach focused on pressing high and using the flanks, particularly through Greg Kiltie and Findlay Curtis. However, their commitment to attack left spaces that Dundee exploited, particularly on the counter. Dundee's 4-1-4-1 formation provided defensive solidity, with Ethan Hamilton shielding the back four and allowing the midfield to support Simon Murray when breaking forward. The visitors were content to concede possession, focusing on efficiency in attack and maintaining a compact shape. Both sides made tactical adjustments through substitutions, but the main shift came as Dundee pushed forward late, resulting in Murray's equaliser.
Turning Point
Simon Murray's 81st-minute equaliser, which snatched a point for Dundee and deflated Kilmarnock's hopes of victory.
Man of the Match
Simon Murray
His two goals rescued a point for Dundee and showcased his clinical finishing.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Kilmarnock vs Dundee Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Kilmarnock vs Dundee(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.55
Both teams have struggled for wins recently, with Kilmarnock drawing 9 of 32 and Dundee drawing 8 of 32 this season. H2H shows 4 draws in last 10, and both teams' attack/defence metrics point to a low-margin contest.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 3.75
Model probability for over 2.5 is 33%, above the implied 26.7%. Both teams have high season over 2.5 rates (KIL 62.5%, DUN 53.1%), so odds are a bit too long.
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More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Kilmarnock vs Dundee Prediction
This is a clash between two struggling sides near the bottom of the Scottish Premiership. Kilmarnock have shown slightly better home form but remain inconsistent, while Dundee's away record is poor. Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities, but recent matches suggest a low-scoring, cagey affair is likely. The draw stands out as the value play, with a 1-1 scoreline the most probable outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent form is poor for both: Kilmarnock (LWWLD), Dundee (LLDWD).
- →H2H is very balanced: 3W each and 4 draws in last 10.
Defence
- →Both teams have negative goal differences and are conceding nearly 2 goals per game.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Kilmarnock's home record (5W 3D 8L) is only marginally better than Dundee's away record (2W 4D 10L).
- →High draw rate for both sides this season.
🚩 Kilmarnock vs Dundee Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Kilmarnock and 4.8 for Dundee, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Kilmarnock and Dundee Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Kilmarnock vs Dundee Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Kilmarnocklast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Dundeelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Kilmarnock vs Dundee — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Kilmarnock vs Dundee
Kilmarnock vs Dundee Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Kilmarnock wins
5
Draws
3
Dundee wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Kilmarnock vs Dundee
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Kilmarnock vs Dundee
- ⚠️Some recent matches lack full stats, reducing confidence in shot/corner projections.
- ⚠️Low attacking output for both sides increases volatility in correct score and goal markets.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest Kilmarnock are stronger favourites than model projects; market may be overrating home advantage.
- ⚠️Predictions are based on available data only; future lineups/form swings are possible.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Kilmarnock vs Dundee: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 6 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.