ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
ST Johnstone
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Dundee Utd
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.5(+12% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Late Dundee Utd Equaliser Denies St Johnstone in Spirited Draw at McDiarmid Park
St Johnstone and Dundee United shared the spoils in a tightly contested 1-1 draw at McDiarmid Park, with both sides showcasing moments of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive winner. The hosts took the lead in the 21st minute, capitalising on a rare spell of pressure despite Dundee United dominating possession. However, Dundee United's persistence paid off late in the second half, as they found an equaliser in the 79th minute to ensure the points were shared. Dundee United controlled much of the game with 62% possession and a greater attacking output, registering 14 shots with 7 on target compared to St Johnstone's 11 shots and 5 on target. The match was marked by physical battles, with a total of six yellow cards shown, and both teams had spells where they looked capable of snatching victory. Ultimately, neither side could convert their chances in the closing stages, leaving both with a point apiece.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
21' — Goal
J. Fowler scores to put St Johnstone ahead against the run of play.
34' — Yellow Card
K. Ciubotaru (Dundee Utd) booked for a late challenge.
52' — Yellow Card
J. Holt (St Johnstone) shown a yellow for a tactical foul.
68' — Yellow Card
L. Cameron (Dundee Utd) receives a yellow for dissent.
79' — Goal
Dundee Utd equalise, with Zidane Iqbal providing the assist.
85' — Yellow Card
J. Rawlins (Dundee Utd) cautioned for a foul on the wing.
90' — Yellow Card
R. McAlear (St Johnstone) booked for time-wasting.
ST Johnstone
St Johnstone started brightly and made the most of their limited possession, taking the lead in the 21st minute. Their 4-2-3-1 setup provided defensive solidity, and the midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt Dundee United's rhythm. However, as the match wore on, they struggled to maintain control and were increasingly pushed back, relying on counter-attacks and set pieces to threaten. Despite conceding the majority of possession (38%) and facing more shots, St Johnstone defended resolutely for much of the match. Their inability to hold onto the lead in the final stages, coupled with a lack of sustained attacking threat, ultimately cost them all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Dundee Utd
Dundee United dominated possession from the outset, utilising their 4-3-3 formation to control the midfield and stretch St Johnstone's defence. Despite falling behind early, they remained patient, gradually increasing the tempo and probing for openings. Their attacking trio posed consistent problems, and their persistence was rewarded with a deserved equaliser in the 79th minute. While Dundee United created more chances and registered more shots on target (7), their finishing let them down at key moments. Defensively, they were occasionally exposed on the break, but overall, their ability to dictate play and respond under pressure was commendable.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
St Johnstone lined up in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on defensive organisation and quick transitions. Their double pivot shielded the back four effectively in the first half, but as Dundee United increased their pressure, St Johnstone were forced deeper, relying on the pace of their attacking midfielders for counter-attacks. Substitutions in the second half appeared aimed at shoring up the midfield and protecting the lead, but this ultimately conceded too much territory. Dundee United's 4-3-3 allowed them to dominate possession and stretch the play, with their midfield trio dictating tempo and recycling the ball efficiently. They utilised width well, and their full-backs pushed high to support attacks. However, their high line left them vulnerable to counters, and their finishing lacked composure until the late equaliser. Tactical fouls and yellow cards highlighted their frustration as they chased the game.
Turning Point
Dundee United's equaliser in the 79th minute, orchestrated by Zidane Iqbal, shifted momentum and denied St Johnstone a home victory.
Man of the Match
Zidane Iqbal
Instrumental in midfield, dictating play and providing the crucial assist for the equaliser.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd: Match Preview
St Johnstone and Dundee Utd arrive locked on eight points from seven matches, both sitting in the lower half of the Premiership table. St Johnstone's recent form reads DLWDL, with a single win in their last five and no clean sheets all season. Dundee Utd, meanwhile, come off an emphatic 3-0 away win at St Mirren but have alternated between wins and losses in their last five, underlining their inconsistency.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by symmetry. Both sides average 1.29 goals scored per game, and their defensive records are nearly identical (St Johnstone 1.43 conceded, Dundee Utd 1.57). Dundee Utd's away attack is notable, with seven of their nine league goals coming on the road, but their defence has also shipped seven in four away games. St Johnstone's home record (2W 1D 1L, 7:6 goal difference) mirrors Dundee Utd's away numbers, while neither side excels at keeping opponents out. Set-piece data hints at a slight edge for Dundee Utd on corners (7.0 per game in the last five), but disciplinary numbers are high for both—expect cards.
The model projects a balanced, cagey match with both teams likely to score but neither able to impose sustained dominance. The highest probability is for a 1-1 draw, with the distribution of scoring chances and defensive lapses roughly even. With neither side showing a clear statistical edge, the value sits with the draw, particularly given the frequency of close scorelines in recent head-to-heads.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd that most previews miss.
- 1Dundee Utd have scored first in three of their last four away matches, but have also conceded seven goals in those games.
- 2St Johnstone have seen both teams score in four of their last five matches, yet have failed to keep a single clean sheet all season.
- 3The last ten head-to-head meetings have averaged just 1.7 goals per game, with four matches finishing 1-0 or 1-1.
Who do you think wins: ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.46
The model assigns a 32% chance to the draw, above the 28.6% implied by odds of 3.5. Both teams average 1.29 goals scored per game and have identical records (2W 2D 3L), with neither side showing a clear superiority in attack or defence. Four of the last ten H2H meetings have been decided by a single goal or ended level, supporting a tightly contested outcome.
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The Case For This ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd Prediction
This fixture pairs two mid-table sides with nearly identical records and goal metrics, suggesting a balanced contest. Both St Johnstone and Dundee Utd have scored nine goals in seven matches, with the home side conceding ten and the visitors eleven. Neither team has demonstrated a consistent edge in recent form or underlying shot data, so a low-margin result is most likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average 1.29 goals scored per game this season.
Defence
- →St Johnstone have not kept a clean sheet in any of their seven league matches.
Match Context
- →Dundee Utd have scored seven of their nine goals away from home.
🚩 ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.7 corners for ST Johnstone and 5.3 for Dundee Utd, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 55% · Over 10.5: 30%.
How ST Johnstone and Dundee Utd Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ST Johnstonelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Dundee Utdlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
St Johnstone enter with a DLWDL run and just one win in their last five, struggling to keep opponents out (zero clean sheets in seven). Dundee Utd's form is patchy, alternating wins and losses, but they come off a 3-0 away victory and have been more prolific on the road. Both teams have identical 2-2-3 records and are yet to demonstrate consistent superiority.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
What History Says: ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd have won five of the last ten meetings, including three away wins at McDiarmid Park. Four of those ten matches have ended either 1-0 or 1-1, pointing to a recurring trend of tight, low-scoring affairs. The margins in this fixture are usually slim, with only one draw in the last ten but frequent single-goal results.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
ST Johnstone wins
2
Draws
4
Dundee Utd wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd
The draw at 3.5 offers the clearest value, with the model's 32% probability outstripping the 28.6% implied by bookmaker odds. Other markets, such as both teams to score and under 2.5 goals, are closely aligned with the odds, suggesting little edge. The statistical deadlock between the sides makes the draw the standout from a value perspective.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in recent results, including heavy wins and losses.
- ⚠️St Johnstone's lack of clean sheets increases the risk of a higher-scoring match.
- ⚠️No major injuries are reported, but lineups are not yet confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ST Johnstone 1–1 Dundee UtdThe numbers point to a 1-1 draw, underpinned by both teams' near-identical attacking and defensive rates and a strong historical trend for low-margin outcomes in this fixture. The single strongest data point is their matching 1.29 goals scored per game and a combined clean sheet rate of just 14%. The likeliest way this prediction fails is if one side capitalises on the other's defensive lapses early, opening up the game for a higher scoreline.
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd: Common Questions
Who will win ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd?
The model gives St Johnstone a 36% chance to win, Dundee Utd a 32% chance, and the draw 32%. Both teams have identical records and scoring rates, so a draw is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd?
Yes is favoured at 61% probability. St Johnstone have not kept a clean sheet in any of their seven matches, and Dundee Utd have scored in three of their last four away games.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in this match?
Over 2.5 goals is slightly more likely at 54%, but the margin is narrow. Both teams average just over 1.25 goals scored per game and have seen 43% (St Johnstone) and 57% (Dundee Utd) of their matches go over 2.5.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.