Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Kilmarnock
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Dundee Utd
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 3.75(+10% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.4
Model probability (32%) slightly exceeds the bookmaker's implied probability (29.4%). Both teams have drawn 13 and 10 games respectively, and recent H2H meetings have ended in draws in 4 of the last 6. Both teams are defensively vulnerable but often cancel each other out.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 3.75
Despite high over 2.5 rates, the price on 'under' is value given both teams' recent struggles to score in some matches and a history of low-scoring H2H games (3 of last 6 H2H under 2.5).
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The Case For This Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd Prediction
Kilmarnock host Dundee Utd in a clash between two defensively frail but competitive mid-table sides. Kilmarnock have struggled for consistency at home, while Dundee Utd arrive in better form but with a leaky defence. The H2H record is heavily in Kilmarnock's favour at Rugby Park, but recent meetings have been tight, with several draws. Expect an open game with both sides likely to score, but neither dominant enough to be strongly favoured. A draw is a strong possibility, with goals likely but not guaranteed to fly in.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Kilmarnock's form: L-D-L-W-W; Dundee Utd: W-L-W-D-L.
Defence
- →Kilmarnock have only won 5 of 17 at home (W5 D4 L8), conceding 27 goals.
- →Both teams average over 1.5 goals conceded per game this season.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Dundee Utd have drawn 7 of 16 away, with a negative goal difference (GF 24, GA 32).
- →Recent H2H: 4 of last 6 meetings ended in draws, most recent two 1-1.
- →Kilmarnock have failed to score in 2 of their last 5; Dundee Utd have scored in all last 5.
- →Season over 2.5 goal %: Kilmarnock 61.8%, Dundee Utd 51.5%.
🚩 Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Kilmarnock and 4.2 for Dundee Utd, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Kilmarnock and Dundee Utd Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Kilmarnocklast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Dundee Utdlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Kilmarnock wins
4
Draws
0
Dundee Utd wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd
Odds from Unibet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, corners, possession) are missing for several recent games, reducing confidence in set piece and attacking volume estimates.
- ⚠️Both teams are inconsistent, with erratic defensive performances.
- ⚠️No confirmed lineups at time of analysis.
- ⚠️Motivation factors (e.g., relegation or European places) are unclear from standings context.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.