Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Korona Kielce
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Widzew Łódź
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.25(+2% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS: Yes
42%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.25
Model probability for the draw (33%) is slightly higher than the bookmaker's implied probability (30.8%), and both teams are closely matched in form and league position, with recent history suggesting a tight contest.
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The Case For This Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź Prediction
This is a mid-table clash between two evenly matched sides, both on 39 points and with nearly identical goal differences. Korona Kielce have struggled to convert home advantage into wins lately, while Widzew Łódź arrive with patchy but slightly more positive momentum. The match is likely to be cagey, with limited attacking output and a high probability of a low-scoring draw.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Korona Kielce's recent form is poor (LDDLD), with just 3 goals in their last 5.
Match Context
- →Both teams have identical points and similar goal differences, reflecting parity.
- →Widzew Łódź have alternated wins and losses (WLWLW), but their away record is weak (3W, 2D, 11L).
- →H2H slightly favors Korona Kielce at home, but recent meetings have been close.
- →Both teams have a low over 2.5 goal percentage (Korona 40.6%, Widzew 46.9%).
🚩 Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Korona Kielce and 4.8 for Widzew Łódź, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Korona Kielce and Widzew Łódź Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Korona Kielcelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Widzew Łódźlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Korona Kielce are winless in their last five (LDDLD), struggling for goals and consistency, with three straight home draws. Widzew Łódź have been inconsistent but slightly better, winning three of their last five (WLWLW), including a strong 3-1 win in their most recent outing. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerability, but Widzew's away form remains a concern.
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź
Historically, Korona Kielce have had the upper hand, especially at home, but Widzew Łódź have proven capable of winning on the road in this fixture. The last five meetings have produced a mix of results, with three games featuring exactly two goals and only one draw, suggesting a tendency for narrow margins.
Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Korona Kielce wins
1
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź
The model sees slight value in the draw at odds of 3.25, with both teams evenly matched and recent form suggesting a stalemate is likely. No value is found on the under 2.5 market due to extremely short odds, and the lack of BTTS odds limits further value recommendations. Overall, the market appears efficient, with only marginal edges available.
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for recent games reduces confidence in set piece and discipline projections.
- ⚠️Both teams are safe from relegation and out of contention for Europe, so motivation may be variable.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Korona Kielce vs Widzew Łódź: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.