Larne vs Saburtalo Predictions
UEFA Europa League · World
Larne
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Saburtalo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Saburtalo Win
Match Result
5.5/10Stalemate at Inver Park as Larne and Saburtalo Share the Spoils
Larne and Saburtalo played out a goalless draw at Inver Park in a tightly contested UEFA Europa League fixture. Both sides struggled to find a breakthrough, with defences on top and clear-cut chances at a premium. The match was marked by determined midfield battles and disciplined organisation from both teams, but neither could convert their efforts into goals. Despite the lack of goals, the encounter was not without its moments of tension, as both teams picked up bookings in a physical contest. Larne's 4-3-3 formation sought to stretch the game, while Saburtalo matched them man-for-man, resulting in a tactical stalemate where neither side could gain sustained momentum. The result leaves both teams with everything to play for in the return leg.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
24' — Yellow Card
Larne's Chris Gallagher booked for a late challenge, setting the tone for a physical midfield battle.
57' — Yellow Card
Saburtalo's Bakar Kardava shown a yellow for persistent fouling as Larne pressed forward.
68' — Yellow Card
Larne's Dan Bent cautioned for a tactical foul to halt a Saburtalo counter.
Larne
Larne put in a disciplined display, maintaining their shape and working hard to limit Saburtalo's opportunities. Their back four, marshalled by Rohan Ferguson in goal and supported by defenders like Tomas Cosgrove and Matt Ridley, stood firm throughout. In midfield, Ronan Doherty and Chris Gallagher were industrious, but the hosts lacked the creative spark needed to break down a well-organised Saburtalo defence. The attacking trio, led by Montel Gibson and Matthew Lusty, found it difficult to carve out clear chances, as Saburtalo's midfield and defence crowded out space in the final third. Larne's efforts were further hampered by two yellow cards, reflecting their determination but also a slight lack of composure under pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Saburtalo
Saburtalo matched Larne's formation and intensity, focusing on a compact shape and disciplined pressing. The defensive pairing of Vahid Selimović and Aleksandre Amisulashvili was particularly effective in dealing with Larne's forwards. In midfield, Bakar Kardava and Nikoloz Dadiani worked tirelessly to disrupt Larne's rhythm and launch quick transitions. While Saburtalo showed flashes of attacking intent, they too were unable to find the decisive touch in front of goal. A single yellow card highlighted their controlled aggression, but ultimately, their approach was more about containment than risk-taking.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in 4-3-3 formations, leading to a mirror-image tactical contest. Larne looked to use width through their full-backs and wide forwards, but Saburtalo's disciplined midfield trio tracked runners well and cut off supply lines. The central areas were congested, with neither team able to assert dominance for long spells. Saburtalo's pressing was measured, aiming to force turnovers without overcommitting, while Larne's defensive line held a steady shape to nullify Saburtalo's sporadic attacks. Set pieces offered occasional hope for both sides, but well-marshalled defences and alert goalkeeping ensured that neither team could capitalise. Substitutions, if any, did not alter the tactical balance, as both managers prioritised structure over risk.
Turning Point
The match's defining passage was the midfield battle in the second half, where both teams' discipline and tactical caution ensured the deadlock remained unbroken.
Man of the Match
Vahid Selimović
Commanded the Saburtalo defence with authority, ensuring a clean sheet in a tough away fixture.
Larne vs Saburtalo: Match Preview
Larne enter this Europa League qualifier off the back of two heavy defeats to Crvena Zvezda, conceding nine goals without reply, but prior to that had edged past Tre Fiori in the Champions League qualifiers. Saburtalo, meanwhile, have been more consistent in attack, scoring in four of their last five and picking up a 3-1 away win in the Georgian Cup as well as a 1-1 draw away to Slovan Bratislava. With both teams lacking domestic season data, recent continental form and short-term momentum are the main reference points.
The statistical matchup favours Saburtalo's attack against a Larne defence that has struggled at this level, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last five. Saburtalo's own defence is far from watertight, with no clean sheets and 1.6 goals conceded per game in the same span, but their 1.8 goals scored per game and four BTTS results suggest they are more likely to outscore opponents than shut them out. Larne's attack has been less reliable, failing to score in two of five, and their shot and possession numbers are notably low, especially against stronger opposition.
Given these rates, the model expects a moderately open contest, with Saburtalo's greater attacking output tipping the balance. The most probable scenario is an away win with both teams finding the net, but Larne's home advantage and Saburtalo's defensive issues keep the draw and BTTS markets in play. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 to Saburtalo, reflecting the underlying goal rates and recent trends.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Larne vs Saburtalo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Larne vs Saburtalo that most previews miss.
- 1Saburtalo have seen both teams score in four of their last five matches, with an average of 3.4 total goals per game in that span.
- 2Larne's last five matches average just 0.8 shots on target and 13.6% possession, indicating a struggle to create chances against higher-level opposition.
- 3Saburtalo have scored first in three of their last five matches, while Larne have conceded first in four of five.
Who do you think wins: Larne vs Saburtalo?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Larne vs Saburtalo(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Saburtalo Win
Saburtalo have averaged 1.8 goals per game across their last five, compared to Larne's 1.0, and have scored in four of those five matches, while Larne have failed to score twice and conceded 2.2 per game.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides' recent matches have been open: Larne's last five average 3.2 total goals, Saburtalo's 3.4, and four of Saburtalo's last five have seen both teams score.
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BTTS: Yes
Saburtalo have seen BTTS in four of their last five, and Larne's defensive record (2.2 conceded per game) suggests vulnerability, though Larne have failed to score in two of five.
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More UEFA Europa League Predictions
The Case For This Larne vs Saburtalo Prediction
Saburtalo's superior attacking output and Larne's defensive frailties point towards an away win in a game with above-average goal expectation.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Saburtalo average 1.8 goals scored per game in their last five matches
Defence
- →Larne concede 2.2 goals per game over their last five
- →Saburtalo have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches
How Larne and Saburtalo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Larne vs Saburtalo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Larnelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Saburtalolast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Larne's recent form is mixed, with three wins followed by two heavy defeats to Crvena Zvezda, conceding nine without reply. Saburtalo have been more consistent, unbeaten in four of their last five and averaging 1.8 goals scored per game, though they have also conceded frequently.
Larne vs Saburtalo — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Larne vs Saburtalo
With no bookmaker odds provided, it is not possible to identify specific value edges for this fixture. Model probabilities suggest Saburtalo are a marginal favourite, and the over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets would be of interest if odds exceeded 1.85 and 1.75 respectively.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Larne vs Saburtalo
- ⚠️No historical head-to-head data is available between these sides
- ⚠️No league standings or full season records for either team
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Larne 1–2 SaburtaloThe model projects a 2-1 away win for Saburtalo, driven by their superior scoring rate (1.8 per game) and Larne's defensive vulnerability (2.2 conceded per game). The main risk is Larne's home advantage and the small sample size of recent European matches, which could mean either side's true level is misestimated.
Larne vs Saburtalo: Common Questions
Who will win Larne vs Saburtalo?
Saburtalo are given a 43% probability of winning away at Larne, with Larne at 28% and the draw at 29%. This is based on Saburtalo's higher recent scoring rate and Larne's defensive struggles.
Will both teams score in Larne vs Saburtalo?
There is a 57% probability of both teams scoring, as Saburtalo have seen BTTS in four of their last five and Larne's defence has conceded 2.2 goals per game recently.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Larne vs Saburtalo?
The model estimates a 54% probability for over 2.5 goals, with both teams' recent matches averaging more than three goals combined.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Larne vs Saburtalo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.