Saburtalo vs Larne Predictions
UEFA Europa League ยท World
Saburtalo
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 1
Larne
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Saburtalo Win
Match Result
7.5/10Saburtalo Edge Past Larne in Extra-Time Europa League Thriller
Saburtalo booked their place in the next round of the UEFA Europa League after a tense 2-1 extra-time victory over Larne at the Mikheil Meskhi Stadium in Tbilisi. Dominating possession with 68% and firing all five of their shots on target, the Georgian side were made to work hard by a resolute Larne, who managed to keep the hosts at bay for much of the match despite being under constant pressure. The breakthrough finally arrived in the 74th minute, only for Larne to hit back almost immediately in the 76th, forcing the tie into extra time. Saburtaloโs relentless attacking eventually paid off again in the 102nd minute, as they reclaimed the lead and held on for a deserved win. Larne, despite their defensive discipline and physical approach, were ultimately undone by Saburtaloโs persistence and superior quality on the ball.
๐ฎ AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
๐ฐ Bet Results3/3 hit
Key Moments
74' โ Goal
Saburtalo finally break the deadlock after sustained pressure.
76' โ Goal
Larne respond instantly, leveling the score with their only shot on target.
102' โ Goal
Saburtalo restore their lead in extra time, a decisive blow.
Multiple' โ Yellow Cards
A total of seven yellow cards reflect the match's physical edge.
Saburtalo
Saburtalo controlled the tempo from the outset, enjoying 68% possession and winning 11 corners as they pressed Larne deep into their own half. Their patient build-up and relentless probing finally breached the visitors' defense in the second half and again in extra time. Despite conceding an equalizer just two minutes after their opener, Saburtalo kept their composure and continued to dictate play, eventually finding the winner in extra time. Defensively, they were rarely troubled, conceding just one shot on target all match. Their midfield, orchestrated by the likes of Giorgi Kutsia and Bakar Kardava, ensured Larne were starved of meaningful possession.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Larne
Larne set up to frustrate Saburtalo, conceding possession but defending with discipline and physicality, as reflected in their 27 fouls and three yellow cards. Despite being outplayed for long stretches, they showed spirit to equalize quickly after falling behind, with their only shot on target resulting in a goal. However, their inability to retain the ball or create further chances ultimately cost them in extra time, as fatigue and pressure told. Rohan Ferguson in goal was kept busy, but his defense shielded him well until the decisive extra-time blow. Larne's midfield struggled to gain a foothold, and their attack was largely isolated.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in 4-3-3 formations, but their approaches could not have been more different. Saburtalo played expansively, stretching the play with width and utilizing overlapping full-backs to create overloads, as evidenced by their 11 corners and sustained possession. Their midfield trio rotated effectively, providing both defensive cover and attacking support. Larne, in contrast, sat deep and compact, focusing on disrupting Saburtalo's rhythm with aggressive pressing and frequent fouls. Their rare forays forward were direct and opportunistic, relying on quick transitions. As the match wore on, Larne's defensive block tired, allowing Saburtalo to exploit spaces and eventually find the winner in extra time.
Turning Point
Saburtalo's extra-time goal in the 102nd minute, which finally broke Larne's resistance and proved decisive.
Man of the Match
Giorgi Kutsia
Controlled the midfield throughout, dictating play and ensuring Saburtalo maintained their dominance.
Saburtalo vs Larne: Match Preview
Saburtalo approach this Europa League qualifier with momentum from a run of five matches featuring just one defeat, notably holding Slovan Bratislava away and scoring freely against Flora Tallinn. Larne, by contrast, are recovering from a bruising Champions League exit, conceding nine goals across two legs to Crvena Zvezda after a more encouraging pair of wins over Tre Fiori. Both sides are seeking to re-establish themselves in continental competition, but Saburtalo's recent offensive output stands out.
Statistically, the game projects as open. Saburtalo's last five have averaged 3.4 total goals, with both teams scoring in four of those contests. Larne's defensive numbers are especially concerning: 2.2 goals conceded per game and only one clean sheet in their last five. While Saburtalo have not kept a clean sheet in this period either, their attack has been more reliable, and the first-half goal split (five first-half, four second-half) suggests early action is likely. Set-piece and discipline data are limited, but neither side shows a pattern of excessive cards or corners.
The model expects Saburtalo's attacking consistency to edge a contest with above-average goal potential. With both teams prone to defensive lapses and Saburtalo's home advantage at the neutral venue in Tbilisi, a 2-1 scoreline is the most probable outcome, driven by the hosts' superior recent scoring rate and Larne's vulnerability against higher-calibre opposition.
๐ฎ Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react โ then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals ยท model says 1.60
Expected goals ยท model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 ยท 1-0 ยท 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above โ every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration โ not betting advice.
Saburtalo vs Larne Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Saburtalo vs Larne that most previews miss.
- 1Saburtalo's last five matches have seen both teams score on four occasions, highlighting defensive vulnerability on both sides.
- 2Larne have conceded nine goals in their last two European matches, pushing their five-game average conceded to 2.2 per game.
- 3Saburtalo have scored more first-half goals (five) than second-half (four) in their last five, suggesting early attacking intent.
Who do you think wins: Saburtalo vs Larne?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Saburtalo vs Larne(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Saburtalo Win
Saburtalo's recent scoring rate (1.8 goals per game over the last five) and Larne's defensive frailty (2.2 conceded per game) tilt the probabilities towards a home win, even in the absence of market odds.
Read more โ
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams' recent matches show a tendency for goals, with Saburtalo involved in four BTTS games out of five and Larne conceding heavily in Europe, supporting the 54% model probability for over 2.5 goals.
Read more โ
BTTS: Yes
Saburtalo have seen both teams score in four of their last five, while Larne have failed to score in two but showed attacking intent against weaker opposition, making BTTS a plausible angle at 57%.
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More UEFA Europa League Predictions
The Case For This Saburtalo vs Larne Prediction
Saburtalo's attack has found consistency, averaging nearly two goals per match in recent European outings, while Larne's defensive record on the continental stage remains a concern after shipping nine in two legs against Crvena Zvezda. The underlying rates point to a match with above-average goal expectancy, with Saburtalo's forward momentum and Larne's volatility likely to shape the outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- โSaburtalo average 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last five matches.
- โLarne have conceded 2.2 goals per game in their last five, including two heavy defeats.
Match Context
- โSaburtalo's matches have seen both teams score in four of the last five.
How Saburtalo and Larne Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Saburtalo vs Larne Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals รท 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Saburtalolast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Larnelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Saburtalo have lost just once in their last five, scoring at least once in four of those games and averaging 1.8 goals per match. Larne's form is more erratic: after two wins over Tre Fiori, they suffered heavy defeats to Crvena Zvezda, conceding nine without reply, which has dragged their defensive average down.
Saburtalo vs Larne โ Last 2 Matches
What History Says: Saburtalo vs Larne
No head-to-head data is available for these sides, so there are no recurring scorelines or dominance patterns to consider.
Saburtalo vs Larne Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Saburtalo wins
1
Draws
0
Larne wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Saburtalo vs Larne
With bookmaker odds unavailable for this fixture, value assessment is limited to model probabilities. The statistical edge leans toward Saburtalo and goal-heavy markets, but confirmation against market prices is not possible.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per ยฃ1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per ยฃ1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate โ always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Saburtalo vs Larne
- โ ๏ธNo head-to-head or season-long league data available for either side.
- โ ๏ธRecent results are from a small sample and may not fully capture underlying quality.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk โ always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Saburtalo 2โ1 LarneThe model projects a 2-1 win for Saburtalo, underpinned by their 1.8 goals per game average and Larne's porous recent defence. The biggest risk is that both teams' small sample of European fixtures exaggerates their attacking and defensive rates, so a lower-scoring draw cannot be discounted.
Saburtalo vs Larne: Common Questions
Who will win Saburtalo vs Larne?
Saburtalo are rated 44% likely to win, with the draw at 31% and Larne at 25%. The hosts' stronger recent scoring record and Larne's defensive struggles tip the balance.
Will both teams score in Saburtalo vs Larne?
The model gives a 57% chance of both teams scoring, with Saburtalo involved in four BTTS matches from their last five and Larne showing attacking intent against weaker opposition.
How many goals are expected in Saburtalo vs Larne?
There's a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals, driven by Saburtalo's 1.8 goals scored per game and Larne's 2.2 conceded per game over their last five matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Saburtalo vs Larne: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline โ season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 4 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes โ see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.