Le Havre vs Auxerre Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Le Havre
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 0
Auxerre
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.1(+4% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Le Havre and Auxerre Share the Spoils in Tense Ligue 1 Draw
Le Havre and Auxerre played out a closely contested 1-1 draw at the Stade Océane, with both teams showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive breakthrough. Auxerre struck first in the 15th minute, but Le Havre responded swiftly, leveling the score just eight minutes later. The remainder of the match saw both sides create chances—Le Havre edging possession with 53% and firing 10 shots (3 on target), while Auxerre managed 12 attempts, though only 2 tested the goalkeeper. Physicality was a hallmark, with 37 fouls and four yellow cards issued as both teams fought for control. Despite tactical tweaks and substitutions, neither side could convert late opportunities, leaving them to settle for a point apiece in a match that was as combative as it was balanced.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
15' — Goal
Auxerre opened the scoring, capitalizing on early pressure.
23' — Goal
Le Havre equalized swiftly, shifting momentum back to the hosts.
37' — Yellow Card
Le Havre player cautioned as tempers flared in midfield.
54' — Yellow Card
Auxerre player booked for a late challenge, reflecting the match's physical edge.
75' — Substitution
Le Havre introduced fresh legs in attack, seeking a winner.
83' — Substitution
Auxerre made a tactical change to reinforce midfield and preserve the draw.
Le Havre
Le Havre showed resilience after conceding early, quickly restoring parity and dictating much of the play with a 53% share of possession. Their 3-4-3 formation allowed for width and fluidity in attack, but despite creating 10 shots, only three were on target, reflecting a lack of cutting edge in the final third. The midfield worked tirelessly, but the physical nature of the contest led to disciplinary issues, with two players booked and 16 fouls committed.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Auxerre
Auxerre started brightly, capitalizing on an early chance to take the lead in the 15th minute. Their 4-2-3-1 setup provided defensive solidity and allowed them to transition quickly, resulting in 12 shots, though just two were on target. Despite conceding soon after their opener, Auxerre remained organized and combative, matching Le Havre in corners and committing to challenges, leading to 21 fouls and two yellow cards. Their inability to convert further chances ultimately cost them the win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Le Havre deployed a 3-4-3 formation, using wing-backs to stretch the play and maintain width. This setup allowed them to dominate possession and transition smoothly between defense and attack. Auxerre's 4-2-3-1 provided a solid defensive base, with two holding midfielders shielding the back four and enabling quick counters. Both sides pressed aggressively, leading to a high foul count and several bookings. Set pieces were evenly matched, with each team earning five corners, but neither could capitalize. Substitutions in the second half reflected a desire to shift momentum, but tactical discipline from both teams ensured the score remained level.
Turning Point
Le Havre's equalizer in the 23rd minute, which quickly nullified Auxerre's early lead and set the tone for a balanced contest.
Man of the Match
Lassine Sinayoko
Scored the crucial opener and consistently threatened Le Havre's defense, setting the tempo for Auxerre's attack.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 0.45
Over 2.5 Goals
14%
BTTS: Yes
21%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Le Havre vs Auxerre?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Le Havre vs Auxerre(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.1
Both teams have struggled for goals and wins recently, with Le Havre drawing 6 of 14 at home and Auxerre drawing 4 of 13 away. The model sees a slightly higher probability for a draw than the odds imply, offering a small value edge.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.11
Both teams average less than 1 goal per game, and 62.96% (Le Havre) and 59.26% (Auxerre) of their matches finish under 2.5 goals. Recent form and H2H history support a low-scoring match, though odds are short.
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BTTS: No@ 1.18
Only 1 of the last 5 for each team saw BTTS. Both are among the lowest scoring in Ligue 1, and recent H2H also trends to at least one blank.
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The Case For This Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction
This is a classic Ligue 1 relegation battle between two of the league's lowest-scoring teams. Le Havre have the edge at home, where they've been hard to beat, but their attack has been blunt and recent form is poor. Auxerre, also in the drop zone, have been slightly more resilient recently but struggle away and rarely score more than once. Expect a tense, cagey affair with few clear chances and a high likelihood of a draw or narrow home win. Goals should be at a premium.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average under 1 goal per game this season.
- →Last 5: Le Havre 0.4 goals scored per game, Auxerre 1.0.
Defence
- →Both teams with 25.93% clean sheet rate, high failed-to-score rates.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported.
Match Context
- →Le Havre: 1 win in last 10, but only 3 home losses all season.
- →Auxerre: Only 1 away win, 8 losses, and 4 draws on the road.
- →Recent H2H: 3 of last 4 meetings under 2.5 goals, Le Havre dominant at home.
🚩 Le Havre vs Auxerre Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Le Havre and 4.9 for Auxerre, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 59% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How Le Havre and Auxerre Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Le Havre vs Auxerre Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Le Havrelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Auxerrelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Le Havre vs Auxerre — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Le Havre vs Auxerre
Le Havre vs Auxerre Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Le Havre wins
3
Draws
2
Auxerre wins
Things to Watch: Le Havre vs Auxerre
- ⚠️Recent data for shots, corners, and fouls incomplete for some matches.
- ⚠️Both teams' attacking output is highly variable; a defensive error or set piece could swing the match.
- ⚠️Odds on low-goal markets are very short, limiting value.
- ⚠️Model confidence is moderate due to low attacking quality and high draw probability.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Le Havre vs Auxerre: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.