Le Havre vs Auxerre Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Le Havre
Full Time
1 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 2
Auxerre
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Auxerre Win
@ 2.8(+12% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Auxerre Power Past Le Havre with Second-Half Surge at Stade Océane
Auxerre claimed an impressive 3-1 away victory over Le Havre at the Stade Océane, seizing control in a lively second half after a closely contested opening period. The visitors struck first just before the break and weathered Le Havre’s attempts at a comeback, ultimately pulling away with two more goals to seal the result. Le Havre matched Auxerre for much of the match, edging possession (52%) and firing 15 shots, but their defensive lapses proved costly. Despite pulling one back to make it 2-1, the hosts were unable to sustain momentum, as Auxerre’s clinical finishing and disciplined midfield display made the difference.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 3
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
40' — Goal
Auxerre open the scoring, taking a 1-0 lead before halftime.
61' — Goal
Auxerre double their advantage, capitalizing on Le Havre’s defensive lapse.
66' — Goal
S. Nakamura pulls one back for Le Havre, giving the hosts hope at 2-1.
80' — Goal
Auxerre restore their two-goal cushion, effectively sealing the win.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Le Havre and Auxerre pick up bookings as the match grows increasingly physical.
Le Havre
Le Havre started brightly, utilizing their 4-3-3 formation to control the ball and create chances, but struggled to convert opportunities into goals. Their forward line, led by J. Maja and M. Samatta, was lively, and the team managed 15 shots with 6 on target. However, defensive frailties, particularly after halftime, undermined their efforts, and a lack of composure in key moments allowed Auxerre to capitalize. Despite a spirited response after falling 2-0 behind, Le Havre’s midfield lost control as the match wore on, and the team’s discipline slipped, conceding 16 fouls and picking up a yellow card. Ultimately, their inability to contain Auxerre’s attacking transitions proved decisive.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Auxerre
Auxerre executed a well-balanced game plan, utilizing their 3-4-2-1 formation to absorb pressure and strike decisively on the break. Their midfield was combative, winning key duels and disrupting Le Havre’s rhythm, while their attack was ruthlessly efficient—matching the hosts with 6 shots on target from 13 attempts. A goal just before halftime set the tone, and Auxerre’s ability to respond quickly after Le Havre’s goal demonstrated their composure. Despite conceding more possession, they managed the game well, committing tactical fouls (22 in total) to break up play and collecting two yellow cards in the process.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Le Havre’s 4-3-3 looked to dominate the ball and stretch Auxerre’s back three, with full-backs pushing high and midfielders supporting the attack. Early on, this yielded promising moments, but Auxerre’s compact 3-4-2-1 and aggressive midfield pressing disrupted the hosts’ rhythm, forcing turnovers and launching quick counters. Auxerre’s tactical fouling and disciplined shape frustrated Le Havre, especially in the second half. The visitors’ wing-backs provided width, while the central trio shielded the defense and supported transitions. Auxerre’s ability to absorb pressure and strike with precision, especially after tactical substitutions, proved decisive in swinging the match.
Turning Point
Auxerre’s second goal in the 61st minute, which deflated Le Havre’s momentum and set the stage for the visitors to control the remainder of the match.
Man of the Match
C. Archer
Led Auxerre’s line with intelligence, contributed to key attacking phases, and was involved in the decisive moments that swung the match.
Le Havre vs Auxerre: Match Preview
Le Havre return to the Stade Océane still searching for their first league win of the season, having picked up just two points from six matches and scoring only once at home. The hosts' form string of 'LWLDL' underlines their struggles, while Auxerre arrive buoyed by a three-game winning streak in all competitions and have found the net in every league fixture so far. With Auxerre sitting four places above Le Havre in the table and carrying momentum, the stakes are clear: Le Havre need points to escape the foot of the table, while Auxerre can solidify mid-table security with another result.
The tactical matchup pits Le Havre's blunt attack (0.67 goals per game) against an Auxerre defence that has been porous on the road (eight goals conceded in two away league games). However, Le Havre's shot volume at home (average 15+ per match) hasn't translated into goals, and their only clean sheet came in a 0-0 draw with Angers. Auxerre's attack, led by C. Archer (scorer in four of the last five), is averaging 1.8 goals per game over their last five and has produced in both halves, while both teams' matches trend over 2.5 goals (Auxerre 80%, Le Havre 33%). Discipline and set-piece stats are middling, with corners and cards near league average.
The model expects Auxerre's offensive form to outweigh their defensive frailties, especially given Le Havre's lack of cutting edge at home. While the market prices this as nearly even, the data gives Auxerre a clear edge on current form and attacking output. Expect Auxerre to create the better chances and edge a match that could open up in the second half, with Le Havre's home struggles likely to continue unless they find a clinical touch.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Le Havre vs Auxerre
The clearest value lies with Auxerre in the 1x2 market, where the model's 40% win probability outpaces the market's 35.7% implied by odds of 2.80. Over 2.5 goals also offers a modest edge, with the model at 56% versus the market's 52.4%. Other markets, such as BTTS, are efficiently priced or slightly against the bettor, so the focus should remain on Auxerre and the goals angle.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Le Havre vs Auxerre(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Auxerre Win@ 2.85
Auxerre's away win probability (40%) is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 35.7%, driven by their superior recent form (three straight wins) and Le Havre's winless, blunt home record (0W-1D-2L, 1 goal scored at home all season).
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.91
Both teams average 1.8 goals scored per game in their last five, and Auxerre's matches have gone over 2.5 in 80% of league games; the model's 56% probability edges the market's 52.4% implied.
Read more ↓
Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Le Havre vs Auxerre that most previews miss.
- 1Auxerre matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 80% of their league games this season, compared to just 33% for Le Havre.
- 2Le Havre have scored only one goal in three home league matches, despite averaging over 15 shots per game at the Stade Océane.
- 3Auxerre's C. Archer has scored in four of his last five appearances, providing a consistent attacking threat.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction
The market rates this as a near pick'em, but the data tilts towards Auxerre, whose three-match winning run contrasts starkly with Le Havre's winless campaign. While Le Havre have struggled to score at home, Auxerre's attack has found its rhythm, and their defensive frailties may be less exposed against a side averaging just 0.67 goals per league match. The model sees Auxerre's offensive momentum as the key separator, with Le Havre's lack of cutting edge likely to prove costly.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Auxerre's away defence is leaky (8 conceded in 2 away), but Le Havre's attack lacks the firepower to fully exploit it.
Match Context
- →Le Havre have failed to win any of their six league matches (0W-2D-4L) and have scored only once in three home games.
- →Auxerre have won three on the bounce in all competitions and have scored in every league match this season.
🚩 Le Havre vs Auxerre Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Le Havre and 4.8 for Auxerre, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Le Havre and Auxerre Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Le Havre vs Auxerre Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Le Havrelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Auxerrelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Le Havre's recent form is poor, with no wins in their last five league matches and just two draws from six overall. Their attack has been particularly blunt at home, managing only one goal in three matches. In contrast, Auxerre are on a three-match winning run in all competitions, have scored in every league outing, and look to have turned a corner after a shaky start.
Le Havre vs Auxerre — Last 7 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 85.71% of games this season
What History Says: Le Havre vs Auxerre
Le Havre have dominated the recent head-to-head, unbeaten in the last four meetings (two wins, two draws) and winning the last home encounter 3-1. Both teams have found the net in six of the last ten clashes, and draws have been frequent, but Le Havre's current form is a significant downgrade from previous campaigns.
Le Havre vs Auxerre Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Le Havre wins
3
Draws
2
Auxerre wins
Things to Watch: Le Havre vs Auxerre
- ⚠️Le Havre's home xG and underlying chance creation are not available; their shot volume is decent but conversion poor.
- ⚠️Auxerre's away defensive record is a concern (8 conceded in 2 league away games), raising volatility risk.
- ⚠️Both sides have low clean sheet rates, but Le Havre's inability to finish chances could distort expected goal output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Le Havre 1–2 AuxerreAuxerre are favoured to take all three points with a 2-1 away win, driven by their superior recent form and Le Havre's ongoing attacking woes at home. The single strongest data point is Auxerre's 1.8 goals per game over the last five, while Le Havre have managed just one home league goal all season. The biggest risk is Auxerre's leaky away defence giving Le Havre a route back into the match, but unless Le Havre can improve their finishing, the visitors' attacking edge should decide it.
Le Havre vs Auxerre: Common Questions
Who will win Le Havre vs Auxerre?
The model gives Auxerre a 40% chance of victory compared to Le Havre's 31%, with the draw at 29%. Auxerre's recent three-game winning streak and Le Havre's continued struggles at home tip the balance toward the visitors.
Is there value in backing Auxerre at the current odds?
Yes, the model's 40% win probability for Auxerre is higher than the market-implied 35.7% at odds of 2.80, creating a +12% value edge. This is driven by Auxerre's strong attacking form and Le Havre's winless record.
Will both teams score in this match?
There's a 55% probability of both teams scoring, but Le Havre's lack of home goals (one in three matches) tempers this slightly. Auxerre have scored in every league game, while Le Havre's attack has struggled to convert chances.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Le Havre vs Auxerre: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.