Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Predictions
UEFA Europa League · World
Levski Sofia
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Jagiellonia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
7.2/10Late Strike Lifts Levski Sofia to Europa League Glory Over Jagiellonia
Levski Sofia clinched a vital 1-0 victory over Jagiellonia in a tense UEFA Europa League encounter at the Vasil Levski National Stadium. The hosts left it late, finally breaking the deadlock in the 83rd minute after a match characterized by fine margins, disciplined defending, and few clear-cut chances. Both sides matched each other for intensity, but it was Levski's persistence that paid off as they seized a crucial three points in front of their home fans. Jagiellonia enjoyed a slight edge in possession (52%) and looked comfortable in spells, but struggled to convert their control into genuine threat, managing just two shots on target from ten attempts. Levski, meanwhile, were more incisive in the final third, registering five shots on target from thirteen. The match was a physical affair, with six yellow cards shared evenly, but ultimately it was Levski's attacking trio and midfield drive that made the difference.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
83' — Goal
Reinaldo scores the decisive goal for Levski Sofia, finishing off a well-worked move.
45' — Yellow Card
First half ends with both teams collecting bookings, setting a physical tone.
60' — Yellow Card
Jagiellonia's frustration grows as they pick up another booking.
75' — Substitution
Levski Sofia introduce fresh legs in midfield to push for a winner.
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia delivered a disciplined and determined display, showing tactical flexibility and resilience. Despite conceding marginally more possession, they pressed effectively and created the better chances, particularly in the second half. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed for width and quick transitions, with the midfield trio working tirelessly to break up play and support attacks. The decisive moment came late, reflecting Levski's persistence and belief. Defensively, they limited Jagiellonia to just two shots on target, while their own attacking play grew in threat as the game wore on. The home side also managed to keep their composure despite picking up three yellow cards in a competitive contest.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia started brightly and controlled possession for stretches, but struggled to turn their dominance into tangible opportunities. Their 4-3-3 setup provided midfield stability, yet their attacking trio found it tough to break through Levski's organized back line. The Polish side managed just two shots on target, reflecting a lack of cutting edge in the final third. Defensively, Jagiellonia held firm for much of the match and dealt well with Levski's wide play. However, a lapse late on cost them dearly. The visitors also committed more fouls (13) and collected three bookings, perhaps a sign of frustration as the game slipped away.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-3-3 formation, seeking to dominate the midfield and utilize width in attack. Levski Sofia's pressing out of possession was particularly effective, forcing Jagiellonia into mistakes and limiting their ability to play through the lines. The home side's full-backs pushed high at times, supporting wingers and stretching the opposition, while their midfield trio rotated well between defensive duties and supporting the attack. Jagiellonia, for their part, maintained good possession and looked to build patiently, but often lacked the verticality and penetration needed to trouble Levski's defense. Their defensive line was well-organized for much of the match, but a late lapse proved costly. Both sides used substitutions to inject energy, with Levski's changes proving more impactful as they pushed for and ultimately found the winner.
Turning Point
Reinaldo's 83rd-minute goal, which broke the deadlock and sealed the win for Levski Sofia.
Man of the Match
Reinaldo
Delivered the match-winning goal and was a constant threat in attack.
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia: Match Preview
Levski Sofia return to home soil after a mixed start to their Europa League group, sitting mid-table with four points from three matches. Their recent form is stable—undefeated in four and collecting two wins and two draws in their last five—but their only home group fixture ended in defeat to Red Bull Salzburg. Jagiellonia, meanwhile, arrive after a heavy 3-0 home loss to Anderlecht but have been prolific in attack throughout their European campaign, scoring 13 in seven matches and posting a resounding 6-0 win in the Polish Cup just days ago.
Statistically, the contest is shaped by Jagiellonia's high-tempo attack (1.86 goals per game in Europe, 11 shots per match last five) against a Levski side whose defensive numbers are solid domestically but less convincing in continental play. Both teams trend towards open matches: Jagiellonia have seen over 2.5 goals in 85.7% of their European fixtures, while Levski have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in their last five across all competitions. Corners and set-piece data suggest neither side is likely to dominate dead-ball situations, with both averaging below four corners per game.
The model projects an above-average goal environment, with Jagiellonia's attacking volume and Levski's lack of clean sheets pointing towards a 1-2 away win as the most probable outcome. The away side's greater shot output and proven scoring record in Europe give them the edge, but Levski's recent attacking consistency keeps the draw and both teams to score scenarios well in play.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia that most previews miss.
- 1Jagiellonia's Europa League matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 6 of 7 games (85.7%).
- 2Levski Sofia have not kept a single clean sheet in their group stage matches so far.
- 3Jagiellonia's last five matches split their 10 goals 4 in the first half, 6 in the second.
Who do you think wins: Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Jagiellonia matches have seen 85.7% over 2.5 goals this Europa League campaign, and their attack averages 1.86 goals per game across all venues. Levski Sofia's recent matches show a rise in attacking output (1.6 goals per game last five), supporting a higher goal environment.
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Match Result: Jagiellonia Win
Jagiellonia's attack is the most potent unit in this fixture (last 5: 2.0 goals per game, season: 1.86), while Levski Sofia have failed to win at home and average just 1.0 goals per game in the group. The away side's higher shot volume (11 per game last 5) and attacking form tilt the probabilities in their favour.
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More UEFA Europa League Predictions
The Case For This Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Prediction
This Europa League fixture brings together a Levski Sofia side with a modest home record and a Jagiellonia team whose matches have consistently produced goals. The statistical shape of the game is defined by Jagiellonia's high-scoring profile (1.86 goals for, 1.29 against per game in Europe) and Levski's recent uptick in output (1.6 scored, 0.6 conceded per game last five). The away side's matches have cleared 2.5 goals in six of seven group and qualifying fixtures, while Levski's defensive record at home remains unproven. The matchup hinges on Jagiellonia's direct attacking approach—averaging 11 shots per game over their last five—and Levski's ability to contain that threat. Levski's Europa League home data is limited, but their single home group match ended in a 0-1 defeat, and their season clean sheet rate in Europe is 0%. Jagiellonia, for their part, have failed to keep a clean sheet in 85.7% of their European games, but their attack has compensated, especially in the second half (6 of last 10 goals after the break). Set-piece threat is moderate on both sides, with corners per game below the competition average (Levski 2.8, Jagiellonia 3.4 last five). The model expects a match with above-average goal expectancy, driven by Jagiellonia's attacking rate and both sides' defensive frailties. The likeliest scenario is the away side finding the net first and maintaining a narrow lead, with Levski Sofia struggling to match the visitors' shot volume. A 1-2 away win is the modal outcome, but the distribution is broad enough to keep the draw and higher scores in play.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Jagiellonia average 11 shots per game over their last five, compared to Levski's 7.
Match Context
- →Jagiellonia's Europa League matches have produced an 85.7% over 2.5 goal rate.
- →Levski Sofia have failed to score in only one of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
🚩 Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Levski Sofia and 5 for Jagiellonia, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Levski Sofialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Jagiellonialast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Levski Sofia are unbeaten in their last four matches, with a form string of DWWDW and an average of 1.6 goals scored per game in that span. Jagiellonia have alternated wins and losses but recently posted two consecutive victories, including a 6-0 cup rout, and average 2.0 goals per game over their last five.
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
What History Says: Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia
There is no previous head-to-head record between Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia, so no historical trends or recurring scorelines can inform this matchup.
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Levski Sofia wins
0
Draws
0
Jagiellonia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia
With no bookmaker odds available, no explicit value edges can be calculated. However, the model's 59% over 2.5 goals probability and Jagiellonia's 45% win chance suggest these are the most statistically robust angles if market odds are competitive.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available for these teams, reducing certainty on matchup dynamics.
- ⚠️Levski Sofia's home European sample is just one match, limiting reliability of home/away splits.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges and expected value for recommended bets are not calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Levski Sofia 1–2 JagielloniaA 2-1 win for Jagiellonia is the model's baseline, anchored by their 1.86 goals per game scoring rate and 85.7% over 2.5 goal rate in Europe. The main risk is Levski Sofia's recent attacking improvement (1.6 goals per game last five), which could see them capitalise if Jagiellonia's defence is as porous as in their last group outing.
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia: Common Questions
Who will win Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia are favoured with a 45% win probability, compared to 26% for Levski Sofia and 29% for the draw. This is driven by Jagiellonia's superior attacking rate (1.86 goals per game in Europe) and Levski's lack of home wins in the group.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
The model assigns a 59% probability to over 2.5 goals, reflecting Jagiellonia's 85.7% over 2.5 rate in European matches and both teams' recent attacking trends.
Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
Both teams to score is rated at 54%, with Levski Sofia failing to score in only one of their last ten and Jagiellonia keeping just one clean sheet in seven European matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.