Lille vs Lyon Predictions
Ligue 1 ยท France
Lille
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Lyon
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.25(+11% edge)
Recommended Bets: Lille vs Lyon
Lille vs Lyon: Match Preview
Lille enter this clash second in Ligue 1 and unbeaten at home, having conceded just three goals in five matches at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Their recent form (WDWDL) includes a hard-fought away win at Rennes and a narrow home victory over Lens, but also a 2-4 Champions League defeat to Galatasaray. Lyon, meanwhile, sit fifth and have struggled for consistency, with just one win in their last five across all competitions and a poor away record (1W, 1D, 3L, 3 goals scored).
The statistical matchup points to a low-scoring contest. Lille's defensive solidity (0.7 goals conceded per game, 50% clean sheet rate) is mirrored by Lyon's own 0.9 goals against per match, but the visitors' attack has faltered recently, averaging just 0.6 goals in their last five. Both sides average fewer than 4 shots on target per game over that span. Set pieces could play a role, with Lyon averaging 6.2 corners per game in their last five, but both teams' discipline is middling, with Lille picking up 2.2 yellows per game.
Given the underlying rates, the model expects a tactical, cagey affair with few clear chances. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with the draw probability (34%) exceeding the market's implied odds. Injuries to key forwards on both sides further tilt the balance toward a low total, and the historical trend of tight, under 2.5 goal matches between these clubs is expected to continue.
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Expected goals ยท model says 1.15
Expected goals ยท model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
1-0 ยท 1-1 ยท 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration โ not betting advice.
Lille vs Lyon Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Lille vs Lyon that most previews miss.
- 1Lille's home matches average just 2.0 total goals, with only 30% finishing over 2.5 goals this season.
- 2Lyon have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches, despite averaging 12 shots per game in that span.
- 3Across the last 10 head-to-heads, 7 have finished with a one-goal margin or a draw.
Who do you think wins: Lille vs Lyon?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Lille vs Lyon(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.31
The model assigns a 34% probability to the draw, higher than the 31% implied by odds of 3.25. Both teams average fewer than 1.5 goals conceded per game and have drawn 5 of their combined 20 league matches this season, with Lille unbeaten at home and Lyon struggling for away wins.
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BTTS: No@ 1.98
Lille have kept clean sheets in 50% of their league matches and Lyon have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 outings. The model gives a 53% chance of at least one side failing to score, slightly above the market's implied probability.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Lille vs Lyon Prediction
This fixture brings together two sides with strong defensive records but contrasting home and away form. Lille, unbeaten at home (3W, 2D), have conceded just three goals in five at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, while Lyon have managed only one win in five away league matches, scoring just three times on their travels. Both teams are coming off mixed recent results, with Lille's form string of WDWDL and Lyon's LDWLL underlining a slight edge for the hosts. Statistically, the matchup is shaped by low concession rates: Lille allow 0.7 goals per game in Ligue 1, Lyon 0.9, and both sides' recent shot and xG numbers suggest a cautious, midfield-heavy contest. Lille's attack averages 10.4 shots and 3.8 on target in their last five, but Lyon's away defensive record (6 conceded in 5) and their own blunt attack (0.6 goals per game last five) point to a low-scoring profile. The head-to-head history is notable for Lyon's dominance (6 wins in 10), but also for a string of single-goal margins and under 2.5 outcomes. The model expects a tight, tactical battle with limited clear chances and a high likelihood of the points being shared. Injuries to attacking options on both sides reinforce the under 2.5 goals projection (64% model probability). A 1-1 draw is rated the most probable outcome, with the draw and 'BTTS: No' offering the clearest value angles in a fixture likely to be decided by fine margins.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- โLille have conceded only 0.7 goals per game this season and are unbeaten at home.
Match Context
- โLyon have scored just 3 goals in 5 away league matches, winning only once on the road.
- โ6 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have gone to Lyon, but 4 of the last 5 at Lille have seen under 2.5 goals.
๐ฉ Lille vs Lyon Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Lille and 6 for Lyon, for an expected total of 11.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 82% ยท Over 10.5: 61%.
How Lille and Lyon Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Injuries & Suspensions
Lille
Lyon
Lille vs Lyon Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals รท 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Lillelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Lyonlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Lille have taken 11 points from their last five Ligue 1 matches, including two clean sheets and just one defeat all season. Lyon, by contrast, have lost three of their last five in all competitions and have scored only once in their last three away games, highlighting a dip in attacking output.
Lille vs Lyon โ Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession โ 55% avg
Concerns
- โInconsistent โ 3+ losses in last 5
- โStruggling to score โ 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Lille vs Lyon
Lyon have dominated recent meetings, winning six of the last ten encounters, including the last three. However, Lille have managed to keep things close at home, with four of the last five at Stade Pierre-Mauroy ending under 2.5 goals and only one home win for Lille in that span.
Lille vs Lyon Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Lille wins
3
Draws
6
Lyon wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Lille vs Lyon
The model sees the most value in the draw at odds of 3.25, with a 10.5% edge over the market's implied probability. There is also a small value angle on 'BTTS: No', where the model's 53% probability slightly exceeds the market's 51.3% implied chance. The home win is priced about right, but the draw is underappreciated given both teams' defensive numbers.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per ยฃ1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per ยฃ1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate โ always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Lille vs Lyon
- โ ๏ธLyon's away attack is underperforming recent shot volumes (12 shots per game, 3.6 on target last 5), suggesting some risk of regression.
- โ ๏ธBoth teams have key attacking players missing through injury, which could further suppress goal output but also create unpredictability.
- โ ๏ธThe head-to-head trend strongly favours Lyon, but recent home/away splits point in the opposite direction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk โ always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Lille 1โ1 LyonThe most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, supported by both teams' defensive strength (Lille: 0.7 conceded/game, Lyon: 0.9) and Lyon's lack of away cutting edge. The strongest data point is Lille's unbeaten home record combined with Lyon's single away win in five. The main risk is Lyon converting their above-average shot volume into goals, but the overall rates point to a share of the spoils.
Lille vs Lyon: Common Questions
Who will win Lille vs Lyon?
The model gives Lille a 40% chance to win, Lyon 26%, and the draw 34%. Lille's unbeaten home record and Lyon's poor away form tilt the edge toward the hosts or a draw.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Lyon?
There is a 47% probability both teams score, with a slight edge (53%) to 'No', reflecting Lille's 50% clean sheet rate and Lyon's three recent blanks in five matches.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Lille vs Lyon?
Yes, the model estimates a 64% chance of under 2.5 goals, based on both teams' season averages (Lille: 1.4 for, 0.7 against; Lyon: 1.5 for, 0.9 against) and a history of low-scoring head-to-heads.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Lille vs Lyon: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline โ season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes โ see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.