Monaco vs Auxerre Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Monaco
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Auxerre
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.75(+9% edge)
Recommended Bets: Monaco vs Auxerre
Monaco vs Auxerre: Match Preview
Monaco come into this fixture sitting seventh in Ligue 1, unbeaten at home but with a frustrating run of draws—four in their last six league matches. Their 1-1 result at Le Mans last time out typifies a side that controls games but struggles to kill them off. Auxerre, 14th in the table, have lost six of ten but have shown flashes of attacking intent, notably in a 3-1 win at Le Havre. However, their defensive record—24 conceded in ten, and 18 in just five away games—has left them hovering above the relegation zone.
The tactical contrast is stark: Monaco average 55.6% possession and 11.6 shots per game over their last five, but are only converting at 1.6 goals per match. Auxerre, meanwhile, combine a porous back line (2.4 conceded per game in the last five) with a willingness to attack, scoring in four of those outings. The set-piece battle could be lively, with Monaco drawing five corners per game and Auxerre conceding plenty under pressure. Disciplinary trends also point to a scrappy contest—Auxerre average 2 yellow cards and 18 fouls per game recently.
The model expects Monaco to dictate tempo and create more, but their recent inability to finish teams off—plus Auxerre's knack for chaotic away matches—means the draw is a live outcome, especially at a market price that undervalues it. A 2-1 home win is most likely, but a high-scoring draw is a genuine threat given both teams' defensive inconsistencies.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Monaco vs Auxerre
The model's biggest edge is on the draw, rated at 23% versus the market's 21% implied by 4.75 odds—a meaningful difference given Monaco's run of stalemates and Auxerre's unpredictable away form. No significant value is found in the BTTS or under 2.5 markets, with model and odds closely aligned. If Monaco finally convert their dominance into a clinical win, the draw bet may miss, but the price more than justifies the risk.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Monaco vs Auxerre(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.94
The model assigns a 23% probability to the draw, slightly above the 21% implied by the 4.75 odds. Monaco have drawn four of their last six league matches, including two of four at home, while Auxerre have one draw in their last five but have shown some attacking threat even in defeat. The risk is Monaco's superior H2H dominance, but the price compensates for that.
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Monaco vs Auxerre Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Monaco vs Auxerre that most previews miss.
- 1Auxerre away matches average 5.2 total goals this season (8 scored, 18 conceded in 5), the highest in Ligue 1.
- 2Monaco have drawn four of their last six league matches, including two of four at home.
- 3Both teams have scored in each of the last five H2H meetings, with four producing four or more goals.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.15
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 2-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Monaco vs Auxerre Prediction
Bookmakers have Monaco as clear favourites at 1.40, pricing in both their home record and Auxerre's defensive frailties, but the data suggests the gap may be narrower than the market implies. Monaco are unbeaten at home this season (W2 D2), yet have drawn four of their last six league games and struggled to put away mid-table sides. Auxerre, for all their away issues, have scored in four of their last five and were competitive in recent H2H meetings. Statistically, Monaco's attack is generating 11.6 shots and 4.6 on target per game over the last five, but they've converted that into just 1.6 goals per match. Auxerre's defence is leaking 2.4 goals per game over the same span, but they've also managed to score in all but one of those matches. The over 2.5 goals market is priced short, but with Monaco's home matches averaging 2.75 goals and Auxerre's away games a wild 5.2, the model sees value in the likelihood of both teams finding the net, though not as much as the market. Expect Monaco to control possession (last five: 55.6%) and create more chances, but their recent inability to kill games off—plus Auxerre's tendency to make things chaotic—makes the draw a live outcome at a generous price. The most likely scenario is Monaco edging it 2-1, but the draw is underappreciated by the market given both sides' recent patterns.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Monaco are unbeaten at home this season (W2 D2), but have drawn four of their last six league matches.
- →H2H: Monaco have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, but Auxerre held them to a 2-2 draw in the most recent clash.
Defence
- →Auxerre have conceded 18 goals in five away games (3.6 per match), but have scored in four of their last five overall.
🚩 Monaco vs Auxerre Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Monaco and 4 for Auxerre, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Monaco and Auxerre Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Injuries & Suspensions
Monaco
Auxerre
Monaco vs Auxerre Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Monacolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Auxerrelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Monaco are unbeaten at home this season (W2 D2), but their recent form is defined by draws—four in their last six league matches. Auxerre, on a two-game losing streak, have lost six of ten overall but have scored in four of their last five, showing attacking intent despite defensive woes.
Monaco vs Auxerre — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 70% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Monaco vs Auxerre
Monaco have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning eight of the last ten meetings, but Auxerre have managed to avoid defeat twice, including a 2-2 draw at Stade Louis II last season. Both teams have scored in each of the last five encounters, with goals a regular feature.
Monaco vs Auxerre Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
8
Monaco wins
2
Draws
0
Auxerre wins
Things to Watch: Monaco vs Auxerre
- ⚠️Monaco's two attacking injuries (Idumbo-Muzambo, Fati) reduce depth but have not led to a recent drop in goal output.
- ⚠️Auxerre's defensive numbers are poor, but their away attack has produced 8 goals in 5 matches.
- ⚠️If Monaco convert chances at a higher rate or Auxerre collapse early, the draw bet could be quickly out of play.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Monaco 2–1 AuxerreThe model projects a 2-1 Monaco win, but the strongest data point is Monaco's run of draws—four in their last six league games—against an Auxerre side that scores and concedes freely on the road. The greatest risk is that Monaco's superior H2H record and Auxerre's defensive frailty see the hosts win comfortably, but the price on the draw is simply too big given recent trends.
Monaco vs Auxerre: Common Questions
Who will win Monaco vs Auxerre?
Monaco are favoured with a 62% win probability, but the model sees a 23% chance of a draw—higher than the market suggests. Monaco's unbeaten home record and Auxerre's leaky defence point towards a home win, but recent draws make the draw a live outcome.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Auxerre?
The model gives a 56% probability to both teams scoring, with both sides finding the net in four of Auxerre's last five and all of the last five H2H meetings. Auxerre's attack has scored in four of their last five, while Monaco have failed to keep a clean sheet in three of five.
Is there value in backing the draw in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Yes, the draw is priced at 4.75 (implied 21%) but the model estimates a 23% chance, creating a positive edge. Monaco have drawn four of their last six league matches, and Auxerre's chaotic away games make a high-scoring draw plausible.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Monaco vs Auxerre: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.