Liverpool vs Fulham Predictions
Premier League · England
Liverpool
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Fulham
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.5(+4% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Liverpool and Fulham Stalemate in Goalless Anfield Encounter
Liverpool and Fulham played out a tense 0-0 draw at Anfield, with both sides unable to find the breakthrough despite periods of sustained pressure. The hosts dominated possession with 56% and mustered 14 shots, but only three tested Bernd Leno in the Fulham goal. Fulham, meanwhile, proved resilient and dangerous on the break, registering 10 shots and even edging Liverpool for shots on target with four. Neither side could capitalise on their chances, and while Liverpool looked the more progressive in midfield, Fulham’s disciplined defensive shape and quick transitions caused moments of anxiety for the home crowd. Ultimately, a lack of clinical finishing and some strong goalkeeping at both ends ensured the points were shared.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
23' — Yellow Card
Fulham’s S. Berge booked for a late challenge, setting the tone for a combative midfield battle.
38' — Save
Bernd Leno denies Isak from close range, keeping Fulham level.
52' — Save
Alisson beats away a fierce drive from Oscar Bobb as Fulham threaten on the break.
67' — Corner
Liverpool win their fifth corner, but Fulham’s defence stands firm.
81' — Shot on Target
Fulham’s García forces Alisson into a smart save, but the deadlock remains.
Liverpool
Liverpool controlled much of the ball and dictated the tempo from their 4-2-3-1 base, but struggled to break down a well-organised Fulham defence. The midfield trio of Szoboszlai, Gravenberch, and Muñoz saw plenty of the ball and circulated possession well, but Liverpool’s attacking play often fizzled out in the final third. Alexander Isak led the line but found clear chances hard to come by, and the hosts’ three shots on target rarely troubled Leno. Despite five corners and sustained pressure, Liverpool lacked a cutting edge and were occasionally exposed to Fulham’s counters. The backline, marshalled by Van Dijk and Araújo, dealt well with Fulham’s sporadic threats but could not spark a winning goal from the back.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Fulham
Fulham produced a disciplined and well-drilled away performance, frustrating Liverpool for long spells. Marco Silva’s men set up in a 4-2-3-1, defending compactly and breaking forward with intent. Fulham managed 10 shots, four of which were on target, and forced five corners, showing ambition in transition. Bernd Leno was alert when called upon, while Bassey and Affengruber marshalled the backline with authority. Fulham’s midfield, anchored by Sander Berge and Shea Charles, disrupted Liverpool’s rhythm and provided a platform for quick counters led by Oscar Bobb and Iwobi. Though they couldn’t find a winner, Fulham’s tactical discipline and ability to create moments of danger away from home underlined their progress.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in 4-2-3-1 formations, but Liverpool looked to control possession and play through the thirds, with Szoboszlai and Gravenberch orchestrating from deep. Their full-backs, particularly Tsimikas, pushed high to provide width, but Fulham’s compact shape limited space between the lines. Liverpool’s pressing was effective in recovering the ball, but Fulham’s double pivot shielded the defence and launched quick transitions. Fulham’s tactical discipline was evident, with their midfield dropping deep to congest central areas and their wingers tracking back. They looked to exploit Liverpool’s advanced full-backs with swift counters, and their eight corners highlighted their threat from set pieces. Substitutions late on refreshed legs but did not alter the tactical balance significantly.
Turning Point
Leno’s crucial save from Isak in the first half denied Liverpool the lead and gave Fulham belief to grow into the contest.
Man of the Match
Bernd Leno
Produced several key saves and commanded his area to earn Fulham a valuable away point.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Match Preview
Liverpool return to Anfield after a mixed start to the Premier League campaign, sitting fifth with one win and two draws from their opening three matches. Both home and away, they've shown attacking intent but also a vulnerability at the back, conceding four times already. Fulham, meanwhile, are yet to register a point, but their performances have been more competitive than their results suggest, with narrow defeats and a respectable 1.6 goals per game across all competitions in their last five.
The matchup is defined by Liverpool's high-volume attack (10 shots, 3.6 on target per last five) against a Fulham side that has struggled to keep clean sheets—zero in the league so far—but still manage to create chances of their own (10.8 shots, 2.8 on target per last five). Liverpool's home defence remains a question mark after conceding twice to Forest, and Fulham's ability to find the net in recent head-to-heads at Anfield (scoring in three of the last four) suggests they won't be overawed. Both teams tend to start quickly, with four first-half goals each in their last five outings.
The model expects Liverpool to control possession and chances, but Fulham's attacking numbers and Liverpool's defensive inconsistency point to a closer contest than the odds imply. A 2-1 home win is the most likely outcome, but with Liverpool's tendency to draw and Fulham's knack for staying in games, the draw is a value play. Expect goals at both ends, with Liverpool likely to strike first but Fulham capable of responding.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Liverpool vs Fulham
The model's biggest divergence from the market is on the draw: a 23% probability versus 22.2% implied by the 4.5 odds, making it a marginal value play. Other markets, such as BTTS and under 2.5 goals, are priced efficiently or even offer negative value at current odds. This is a fixture where the market has Liverpool short, but their defensive record and Fulham's head-to-head competitiveness suggest caution.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Liverpool vs Fulham(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.78
The model assigns a 23% chance to the draw, slightly higher than the 22.2% implied by odds of 4.5. Liverpool have drawn two of their three league matches, and Fulham's last five away to Liverpool in all competitions have produced two draws.
Read more ↓
Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Liverpool vs Fulham that most previews miss.
- 1Liverpool have drawn two of their last three league matches, both by a 2-2 scoreline.
- 2Four of the last ten meetings between these sides have ended in draws, including two of the last three.
- 3Both teams have averaged at least 1.6 goals scored per game in their last five matches across all competitions.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 2.20
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 1-1 · 2-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Liverpool vs Fulham?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Liverpool vs Fulham Prediction
Bookmakers have Liverpool as strong favourites at Anfield, but the data suggests the gap may not be as wide as the market implies. Liverpool have yet to win at home this season, drawing 2-2 with Forest, and their last five matches show a tendency to concede, with just two clean sheets and an average of 1.4 goals conceded per game. Fulham, while winless in the league, have shown some attacking threat and tend to keep games competitive, as evidenced by their narrow losses and a 1.6 goals scored average over their last five. Statistically, Liverpool's attack is firing—averaging 2 goals per league game and 10 shots per match—but their defence has looked vulnerable, especially at Anfield. Fulham's away record is poor (0-1 loss at Sunderland), but their underlying numbers (10.8 shots, 2.8 on target per last five) suggest they can create chances. Both teams split their last ten head-to-heads with four draws, and Fulham have scored in three of their last four visits to Anfield. Set-piece data is modest, with both sides averaging around 2.4–4 corners per game and low card counts. The model expects Liverpool to edge this, but not without resistance. A 2-1 home win is the most likely outcome, but the draw offers the best value relative to the odds. Liverpool's defensive frailties and Fulham's ability to stay in games mean this could be closer than the market expects. Expect Liverpool to start fast, but Fulham have enough to keep it interesting, especially in the second half.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Fulham average 1.6 goals scored across their last five matches but have yet to keep a clean sheet in the league.
Match Context
- →Liverpool have drawn two of their three league matches this season, both with 2-2 scorelines.
- →Head-to-head meetings at Anfield have produced two draws and three Liverpool wins in the last five.
🚩 Liverpool vs Fulham Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Liverpool and 5.4 for Fulham, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Liverpool and Fulham Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Liverpool vs Fulham Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Liverpoollast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fulhamlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Liverpool come into this fixture unbeaten in the league but with just one win and two draws from their first three matches, both draws finishing 2-2 and highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Fulham have lost both their league games, but the margins have been narrow, and their attacking numbers (1.6 goals per last five) suggest they remain a threat. Momentum slightly favours Liverpool, but neither side is in top gear.
Liverpool vs Fulham — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 18 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 62% avg
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Liverpool vs Fulham
Liverpool have the edge in the last ten meetings, winning five, but Fulham have held them to four draws, including two of the last three. Recent Anfield encounters have been competitive, with Fulham scoring in three of their last four visits and only one match in the last ten decided by more than a single goal.
Liverpool vs Fulham Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Liverpool wins
4
Draws
1
Fulham wins
Things to Watch: Liverpool vs Fulham
- ⚠️Small sample size for Fulham's away form this season (only one league match).
- ⚠️Liverpool's home defensive metrics are based on a single league match.
- ⚠️No injury or suspension news at time of analysis, but late changes could impact lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Liverpool 2–1 FulhamLiverpool are deserved favourites, but the model sees more risk than the market price suggests, especially given their two draws from three and Fulham's ability to keep games close. The 2-1 predicted scoreline reflects Liverpool's attacking edge but also their defensive lapses. The single strongest data point is Liverpool's recurring draws and Fulham's record of scoring at Anfield. If Liverpool's defence tightens up or Fulham fail to convert chances, the home side could win more comfortably, but the value lies in the draw.
Liverpool vs Fulham: Common Questions
Who will win Liverpool vs Fulham?
Liverpool are favourites with a 62% model probability, but the draw (23%) is more likely than the odds suggest. Fulham have a 15% chance of an upset, but their away form and Liverpool's home record both point to a close contest.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Fulham?
The model gives a 56% probability to both teams scoring, with both sides averaging at least 1.6 goals per game in their last five. Liverpool have conceded in two of three league matches, while Fulham have scored in three of their last four visits to Anfield.
Is there value in backing the draw in Liverpool vs Fulham?
Yes, the model assigns a 23% chance to the draw, slightly higher than the 22.2% implied by the 4.5 odds. Liverpool have drawn two of their three league matches, and Fulham have a history of tight games at Anfield.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Liverpool vs Fulham: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 5 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.