Londrina vs Botafogo SP Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Londrina
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Botafogo SP
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
6.5/10Londrina Frustrated by Botafogo SP in Goalless Stalemate Despite Dominance
Londrina were left ruing missed opportunities as they played out a 0-0 draw with Botafogo SP at Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias. The home side dominated the match, controlling 57% possession and firing 22 shots, but simply could not find a way past Victor Souza and the resolute Botafogo SP defense. Despite their attacking intent and an impressive eight corners, Londrina's finishing let them down, with only five of their efforts finding the target. Botafogo SP, meanwhile, struggled to assert themselves offensively, managing just five shots and failing to register a single effort on target. Their approach was largely reactive, absorbing pressure and committing 18 fouls in an effort to disrupt Londrina's rhythm. Both sides saw two players booked, but neither could break the deadlock in a match that showcased defensive discipline over attacking flair.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
18' — Yellow Card
Wallace Reis (Londrina) booked for a tactical foul, setting the tone for a physical contest.
37' — Yellow Card
Ericson da Silva (Botafogo SP) shown yellow for a late challenge as Londrina pressed forward.
54' — Chance
Paulinho Moccelin goes close, but Victor Souza makes a crucial save to keep the score level.
68' — Yellow Card
João Vitor (Londrina) cautioned as frustrations mount for the hosts.
75' — Yellow Card
Matheus Sales (Botafogo SP) booked for persistent fouling as Londrina ramp up the pressure.
81' — Corner
Londrina earn their eighth corner, but the Botafogo SP defense holds firm once again.
Londrina
Londrina were clearly the more ambitious side, dictating play through superior possession and a barrage of attacking moves. Their 22 shots and eight corners reflected their territorial dominance, but a lack of clinical finishing proved costly. The midfield, marshaled by Wallace Reis, kept the tempo high, while Paulinho Moccelin led the line with energy. However, despite their control, Londrina were repeatedly frustrated by Botafogo SP's deep block and physical approach. Defensively, Londrina were rarely troubled, with the back four and goalkeeper Kozlinski enjoying a largely untroubled evening. The inability to convert chances, however, overshadowed an otherwise commanding display.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP came into the match with a clear game plan: defend deep, disrupt Londrina's flow, and hope to snatch something on the break. Their defensive discipline was commendable, with the back line and holding midfielder Matheus Sales working tirelessly to repel wave after wave of Londrina attacks. Goalkeeper Victor Souza was alert when called upon, helping his side secure a valuable point on the road. Offensively, however, Botafogo SP offered little. Their five shots failed to trouble Kozlinski, and their inability to retain possession (43%) meant they spent most of the match on the back foot. The high foul count (18) reflected their physical, spoiling approach.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-1-4-1 formation, but their approaches were markedly different. Londrina sought to control the game through patient buildup, utilizing width and overlapping fullbacks to stretch the Botafogo SP defense. Their midfield trio rotated well, allowing for sustained pressure and a high volume of shots, though they often found themselves crowded out in the final third. Botafogo SP, by contrast, sat deep with a compact block, relying on Matheus Sales to shield the back four and break up play. Their attacking forays were rare, and they committed numbers behind the ball, particularly after halftime. The high foul count and yellow cards illustrated their willingness to disrupt play rather than engage in open exchanges. Set pieces offered Londrina their best chances, but Botafogo SP's aerial organization was up to the task.
Turning Point
Victor Souza's key save from Paulinho Moccelin in the 54th minute preserved the stalemate and denied Londrina the breakthrough.
Man of the Match
Victor Souza
Produced crucial saves and marshaled his defense under relentless pressure to secure a clean sheet.
Londrina vs Botafogo SP: Match Preview
Londrina come into this match on the back of a three-match unbeaten run (WDW) and a resounding 5-0 win over CRB, pushing them to 16th in the table but with the highest goals-for tally among the bottom five. Botafogo SP, sitting 14th, have steadied their form with a five-point haul from their last three, including a 3-3 draw at Sport Recife, but have struggled to keep clean sheets on the road, conceding in eight of nine away fixtures.
Statistically, this is a clash of high-variance profiles: Londrina's home games average 3.0 goals (14 for, 10 against in 8), and their last five matches see them scoring 2.4 per game. Botafogo SP's away record is less explosive (0.78 scored, 1.0 conceded per away game), but their recent uptick (1.8 goals per game last 5) and shot volume (13.4 per match) suggest they're creating more than their season average. Both sides have low clean sheet rates (under 19%), and Londrina's over 2.5 goal rate (69%) is among the highest in Serie B.
The model expects a match with above-average goal expectation, with Londrina's attacking momentum at home likely to edge a contest where both teams find the net. Defensive frailties on both sides, especially in the second half (6 second-half goals for each in their last five), point to a 2-1 or 2-2 type scoreline, with Londrina's recent home output giving them the slight nod.
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Expected goals · model says 1.55
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Londrina vs Botafogo SP Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Londrina vs Botafogo SP that most previews miss.
- 1Londrina's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 11 of 16 games this season (68.75%).
- 2Botafogo SP have failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 of 9 away matches despite conceding just 9 goals on the road.
- 3Londrina have scored 10 of their last 11 goals in the second half, indicating late-game attacking strength.
Who do you think wins: Londrina vs Botafogo SP?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Londrina vs Botafogo SP(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Londrina matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 69% of games this season, and both sides' recent attacking output (Londrina 2.4, Botafogo SP 1.8 goals per game last 5) supports a higher goal expectation than the league average.
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BTTS: Yes
Both teams have scored in 5 of Londrina's last 8 home games and 3 of Botafogo SP's last 5 matches, with both sides showing a low clean sheet rate (under 19% for both over the season).
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Londrina vs Botafogo SP Prediction
This fixture brings together two sides with mid-table records but contrasting goal environments: Londrina's matches average 3.0 goals per game, while Botafogo SP's are tighter at 2.24. Both teams have struggled for defensive consistency, with clean sheet rates below 19%, but Londrina's recent home form and attacking output (14 goals in 8 home games) suggest an edge in front of goal. The underlying shot and chance creation data point to a match with above-average scoring chances on both ends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Botafogo SP have conceded in 8 of 9 away matches, but have also scored in 4 of their last 5 overall.
- →Both teams' clean sheet rates are below 19%, indicating frequent defensive lapses.
Match Context
- →Londrina's season over 2.5 goal rate is 68.75%, highest in the bottom half.
🚩 Londrina vs Botafogo SP Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Londrina and 4.2 for Botafogo SP, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Londrina and Botafogo SP Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Londrina vs Botafogo SP Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Londrinalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Botafogo SPlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Londrina have found scoring form with three wins and a draw in their last four, netting 12 goals in that stretch. Botafogo SP have steadied after a poor run, collecting seven points from their last four and scoring three times in two of those matches. Both teams' defensive records remain patchy, but their recent attacking numbers are trending up.
Londrina vs Botafogo SP — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Londrina vs Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP have the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last six, including a 2-1 away win in 2023. However, the last two meetings have been closely contested, each decided by a single goal. Historically, these matches have tended toward low margins rather than blowouts.
Londrina vs Botafogo SP Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
1
Londrina wins
3
Draws
3
Botafogo SP wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Londrina vs Botafogo SP
With no bookmaker odds available, it's not possible to quantify value edges for this match. However, the model's high probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score suggest these markets would be attractive if prices reflect the league's lower average goal rates. Any odds implying under 50% for over 2.5 goals or under 55% for BTTS could offer value based on these projections.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Londrina vs Botafogo SP
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges and expected value calculations are not possible.
- ⚠️Both teams' recent upturn in attack could be a small-sample blip rather than a new baseline.
- ⚠️Head-to-head sample is small and spread over several years, limiting its predictive power.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Londrina 2–1 Botafogo SPThe model projects a 2-1 win for Londrina, driven by their high-scoring home matches (1.75 goals for, 1.25 against per home game) and a recent surge in attack. The biggest risk to this outcome is Botafogo SP's improved attacking output and Londrina's defensive volatility, which could easily push the match toward a higher-scoring draw.
Londrina vs Botafogo SP: Common Questions
Who will win Londrina vs Botafogo SP?
Londrina are slight favourites with a 37% win probability, compared to 30% for Botafogo SP and 33% for the draw. Home advantage and recent attacking form tip the balance toward Londrina, but both teams' defensive records keep the draw firmly in play.
Will both teams score in Londrina vs Botafogo SP?
Yes is the more likely outcome, with a 61% probability. Both sides have kept just one clean sheet each in their last five, and Londrina's matches average 3.0 goals per game this season.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in Londrina vs Botafogo SP?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 60%, well above the league average, reflecting Londrina's 69% over 2.5 rate and both teams' recent attacking output.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Londrina vs Botafogo SP: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.