Mallorca vs Cadiz Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Mallorca
AI Predicted Score
1 - 0
Cadiz
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Mallorca vs Cadiz
Mallorca vs Cadiz: Match Preview
Mallorca enter this fixture in sixth place, having drawn three of their last four but boasting one of the division's best defensive records. Their home form remains a foundation: four wins from five at Son Moix, conceding just twice. Cadiz, 18th and with only two wins all season, have struggled for consistency, particularly away from home where they remain winless.
The statistical matchup is defined by Mallorca's defensive strength against a Cadiz side that has found goals hard to come by on the road. Mallorca average just 0.4 goals conceded per home match and have kept clean sheets in over half their league games. Cadiz's away attack is modest (1.25 goals/game) and their defence concedes two per away fixture. The goal environment trends low: Mallorca's over 2.5 rate is just 18.2%, and only three of the last ten H2Hs have seen three or more goals.
Expect a controlled, attritional contest with Mallorca dictating the tempo and limiting Cadiz's opportunities. The likeliest scenario is a narrow home win, with the data pointing to a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline. However, the high draw rate in H2H meetings and Mallorca's recent run of stalemates mean a 1-1 cannot be ruled out if Cadiz capitalise on a set piece or transition.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
28%
BTTS: Yes
33%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Mallorca vs Cadiz Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Mallorca vs Cadiz that most previews miss.
- 1Mallorca's home matches average just 2.4 total goals, and they've conceded only twice in five at Son Moix.
- 2Six of the last ten Mallorca–Cadiz meetings have ended in draws, four of them 1-1.
- 3Mallorca average 6.2 corners per game over their last five, notably above the league average.
Who do you think wins: Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Mallorca vs Cadiz(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Mallorca Win
Mallorca's home record (4W, 0D, 1L, 10:2 goals) and defensive metrics (0.55 conceded per game, 54.6% clean sheet rate) point to a strong probability of a home win, especially against a Cadiz side winless away (0W, 2D, 2L, 5:8 goals).
Read more ↓
Over/Under: Under 2.5
Mallorca's season over 2.5 rate is just 18.2%, and their home matches average 2.4 total goals, while Cadiz away average 3.25 but are less potent on the road; the matchup of Mallorca's defence and Cadiz's away attack suggests a low-scoring contest.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
Mallorca have kept clean sheets in 54.6% of games and conceded only twice in five home matches; Cadiz have failed to score in two of their last five and have not won away.
Read more ↓
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Mallorca vs Cadiz Prediction
Mallorca's defensive solidity at home is the statistical anchor here, with their 0.4 goals conceded per home game and a 4-0-1 Son Moix record setting the tone. Cadiz, despite an uptick in goals scored recently, have failed to win on the road and average just 1.25 goals per away match, while conceding two per game. The most likely outcome is a narrow Mallorca win in a match where chances come at a premium.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Mallorca's home defensive record: 2 goals conceded in 5 home matches (0.4 per game).
- →Cadiz away: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 5:8 goals (2.0 conceded per game).
Match Context
- →Mallorca's season over 2.5 goal rate is just 18.2% (2/11 matches).
🚩 Mallorca vs Cadiz Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Mallorca and 4.6 for Cadiz, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Mallorca and Cadiz Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Mallorca vs Cadiz Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Mallorcalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cadizlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mallorca are unbeaten in their last four, with three draws and a win, and have conceded just three goals across that run. Cadiz have mixed results—two wins, two losses and a draw in their last five—but remain winless away from home this season.
Mallorca vs Cadiz — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +54.55% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Mallorca vs Cadiz
Draws dominate the recent Mallorca–Cadiz rivalry, with six in the last ten meetings and four ending 1-1. Mallorca have edged three of the last six at home, but the margins are consistently narrow—no meeting in the last five has been won by more than a single goal.
Mallorca vs Cadiz Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Mallorca wins
6
Draws
1
Cadiz wins
Things to Watch: Mallorca vs Cadiz
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value edge cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Cadiz have shown some attacking improvement with 7 goals in their last 5, but away output remains limited.
- ⚠️Low-scoring games are inherently volatile; a single early goal could open the contest up.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Mallorca 1–0 CadizMallorca's defensive record at home—just two goals conceded in five matches—is the single strongest indicator for a low-scoring home win, with a 1-0 result the most probable. The main threat to this scenario is Cadiz's recent improvement in attack and the high draw frequency in this fixture, meaning a 1-1 cannot be discounted.
Mallorca vs Cadiz: Common Questions
Who will win Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Mallorca are favoured with a 48% probability of victory, based on their 4-0-1 home record and defensive solidity. Cadiz's chances are lower at 19%, with the draw a significant 33% possibility given the H2H history.
Will Mallorca vs Cadiz be under or over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 71% probability to under 2.5 goals, citing Mallorca's 18.2% over 2.5 rate and strong home defence. Both teams average under 1.3 goals scored per game this season.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Both teams to score 'No' is favoured at 66%, as Mallorca have kept clean sheets in over half their matches and Cadiz have failed to score in two of their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Mallorca vs Cadiz: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.