Maritimo vs Benfica Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Maritimo
AI Predicted Score
1 - 3
Benfica
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Maritimo vs Benfica: Match Preview
Benfica travel to Funchal after a prolific start to the campaign, having scored nine goals in their opening two league fixtures and coming off back-to-back 3-1 wins over Aarhus in Europe. Maritimo, meanwhile, are unbeaten in the league (W2 D1) but have conceded in two of their three matches and have yet to face a top-tier attack. Both sides sit in the top four, but the underlying numbers point to a significant gap in attacking output and historical performance.
Statistically, Benfica's attack is operating at a different level—averaging 13.8 shots and 8 on target per game across their last five, with a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in the league and 7 away goals scored in a single outing. Maritimo's defensive metrics are solid (1.0 conceded per game, 33% clean sheets), but their attack generates just 1.2 goals and 2.4 shots on target per match over the last five, suggesting limited threat against a Benfica back line that has conceded only twice in the league. Set pieces and discipline also favour Benfica, who average 5.6 corners and under 1 card per game recently, while Maritimo's set-piece output is low.
The model expects Benfica to assert control early, with a 71% chance of scoring first and a 68% probability for over 2.5 goals. The most likely outcome is a multi-goal away win, driven by the visitors' high shot volume and recent scoring rates. Maritimo's unbeaten start and home advantage may keep the contest competitive in the first half, but the numbers point strongly towards Benfica pulling away after the break.
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 2.55
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
0-2 · 1-2 · 0-3
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Maritimo vs Benfica Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Maritimo vs Benfica that most previews miss.
- 1Benfica have scored 15 goals in their last five matches across all competitions, averaging 3.0 per game.
- 2Nine of the last ten head-to-heads have seen Benfica win, with Maritimo failing to score in five of those.
- 3Benfica's last five matches have produced an average of 5.2 total goals per game, with four of five seeing both teams score.
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The Case For This Maritimo vs Benfica Prediction
Benfica arrive in Funchal with a potent attack averaging 4.5 goals per league game so far, underpinned by a three-match winning run across all competitions and a dominant away win at Casa Pia (7-0). Maritimo, unbeaten after three league outings (W2 D1), have shown resilience but are conceding at a rate of 1 goal per game and have not faced an attack of this calibre yet. The gulf in recent scoring rates and historical head-to-head dominance for Benfica sets a clear statistical tone. The matchup pits Maritimo's modest attacking output (1.67 goals per game, 7.2 shots per match) against a Benfica defence that has conceded just twice in two league fixtures and kept a clean sheet in their only away match. Conversely, Benfica's forward line is generating 13.8 shots and 8 on target per game over the last five, with 7 goals scored in their only away league fixture. Set-piece threat also tilts towards Benfica, who are averaging 5.6 corners per match recently, while Maritimo's last five average just 1.4. Given the underlying rates, Benfica's probability of victory is high, with the most likely scenario seeing them take control early and maintain pressure throughout. The most plausible deviation comes if Maritimo can restrict space and frustrate in the first half, but the scoring distribution and shot volumes point to a 1-3 away win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Benfica have won 9 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including the last 6 in a row.
- →Maritimo's home record is unbeaten (W1 D1) but both matches were against teams outside the top six.
Attack
- →Benfica average 4.5 goals scored per league match this season, Maritimo 1.67.
🚩 Maritimo vs Benfica Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Maritimo and 4.4 for Benfica, for an expected total of 8.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (64%). Over 8.5: 49% · Over 10.5: 25%.
How Maritimo and Benfica Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Maritimo vs Benfica Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Maritimolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Benficalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
In exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Maritimo enter unbeaten in the league (W2 D1), but their last two results—a 2-2 home draw and a narrow 1-0 win—suggest a side more solid than spectacular. Benfica, by contrast, are in full flow: three straight wins in all competitions, including a 7-0 away demolition and two 3-1 Europa League victories, underline their attacking momentum.
Maritimo vs Benfica — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Maritimo vs Benfica
Benfica's dominance in this fixture is stark: nine wins from the last ten meetings, often by wide margins, and only one Maritimo victory since 2018. The last six encounters have all gone Benfica's way, with Maritimo failing to score in five of those.
Maritimo vs Benfica Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Maritimo wins
0
Draws
9
Benfica wins
Things to Watch: Maritimo vs Benfica
- ⚠️Early season data means small sample sizes for both teams' league form.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so no value or edge calculations provided.
- ⚠️Potential for rotation or fatigue in Benfica after recent European fixtures is unquantified.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Maritimo 1–3 BenficaThe model forecasts a 3-1 win for Benfica, anchored by their 4.5 goals-per-game league average and overwhelming shot production. The single strongest data point is Benfica's historical and current attacking output, which dwarfs Maritimo's. The main risk is an early Benfica European hangover or an unexpectedly stubborn Maritimo defensive display, but the rates and H2H record leave little room for doubt about the likely direction.
Maritimo vs Benfica: Common Questions
Who will win Maritimo vs Benfica?
Benfica are heavy statistical favourites with a 72% probability of victory, based on their 4.5 goals per league game and a nine-wins-in-ten head-to-head record. Maritimo's home form is solid but they have not faced an attack of this calibre yet.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Maritimo vs Benfica?
There is a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals, driven by Benfica's high scoring rate (4.5 per league game) and a 100% over 2.5 rate in their league matches so far. Maritimo's recent matches also show a 67% over 2.5 rate.
Is both teams to score likely in Maritimo vs Benfica?
The model gives a 51% probability for both teams to score, reflecting Benfica's attacking strength but also their tendency to concede (1 per game in the league). Maritimo have scored in two of three league matches and three of their last five overall.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Maritimo vs Benfica: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.