Mirassol vs Flamengo Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Mirassol
Full Time
1 - 5
AI predicted 1 - 2
Flamengo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 2.1(+22% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Flamengo Run Riot in Mirassol with Ruthless 5-1 Away Victory
Flamengo delivered a statement of intent with a commanding 5-1 win over Mirassol at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, showcasing attacking flair and clinical finishing. The visitors seized control early, opening the scoring in the 22nd minute and piling on the pressure with a relentless second-half surge that saw them net four more times. Mirassol, despite a spirited attacking effort and a consolation goal late on, were ultimately outclassed by Flamengo’s superior quality and organization. The match saw Flamengo dominate possession (57%) and fire 8 shots on target from 15 attempts, while Mirassol, though energetic and adventurous, struggled to convert their 16 shots (5 on target) into goals. The gulf in class was evident as Flamengo’s midfield orchestrated play and their forwards capitalized on nearly every opportunity, leaving the home side chasing shadows for much of the contest.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 5
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
22' — Goal
Flamengo open the scoring, establishing early control.
53' — Goal
Flamengo double their lead shortly after halftime, breaking Mirassol’s resistance.
56' — Goal
Flamengo strike again, effectively putting the game beyond reach.
66' — Goal
Fourth goal for Flamengo as their dominance continues.
74' — Goal
Flamengo add a fifth, underlining their attacking superiority.
77' — Goal
Fernandinho pulls one back for Mirassol, offering a brief respite.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Mirassol pick up three bookings as frustration mounts.
Mirassol
Mirassol started brightly and created several promising chances, registering 16 shots in total. However, their lack of defensive solidity and failure to convert opportunities proved costly. The midfield trio struggled to contain Flamengo’s dynamic attackers, and the backline was repeatedly breached, especially after the break. A late goal in the 77th minute offered scant consolation in a match where Mirassol were second best for long stretches.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Flamengo
Flamengo were in imperious form, dictating the tempo with 57% possession and clinical execution in front of goal. Their 4-2-3-1 setup allowed for fluid movement and overloads in advanced areas, resulting in 8 shots on target and 5 goals. The midfield, led by Lucas Paquetá and Erick Pulgar, controlled proceedings, while the attacking quartet exploited Mirassol’s defensive frailties ruthlessly. Defensively, Flamengo remained compact and disciplined, conceding only once late on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Mirassol lined up in a 4-3-3, aiming to press high and attack in numbers, but their midfield trio was overrun by Flamengo’s fluid 4-2-3-1. The visitors’ double pivot provided a solid base, freeing up the attacking midfielders to exploit spaces between the lines. Flamengo’s wide players stretched the play, while Pedro Guilherme’s movement created constant problems for the Mirassol defense. Set pieces were less influential, but Flamengo’s ability to transition quickly and combine in tight spaces proved decisive. Substitutions did little to alter the tactical balance, with Flamengo maintaining control throughout.
Turning Point
Flamengo’s quickfire double in the 53rd and 56th minutes, which killed Mirassol’s hopes of a comeback and set the stage for a rout.
Man of the Match
Pedro Guilherme
Led the line with distinction, directly involved in multiple goals and a constant menace to the Mirassol defense.
Mirassol vs Flamengo: Match Preview
Mirassol enter this fixture sitting 15th in the table, with a mixed run of form (LDWDW) but a solid home record (5 wins from 11). They have managed to keep matches close, drawing with Vasco and Gremio and edging Remo at home in their recent league fixtures. Flamengo, by contrast, are second in Serie A, unbeaten in their last five league matches (DDWWW) and boasting the division's second-best attack with 37 goals in 20 games.
Statistically, Flamengo's away record (6 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, 20:10 goal difference) is among the league's best, and their season-long scoring rate (1.85 per game) dwarfs Mirassol's (1.15). Mirassol's defence is a concern, with just one clean sheet in 20 and a home concession rate of 1.18 per game. Both teams trend towards high-scoring matches, hitting over 2.5 goals in at least 55% of their games, and both have seen BTTS in four of their last five.
The model expects Flamengo to control the match, leveraging their superior attacking rates and away form, but Mirassol's ability to score at home and the H2H trend towards competitive, high-scoring games suggest the hosts will contribute. The likeliest outcome is a Flamengo win in a match with goals at both ends.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Mirassol vs Flamengo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Mirassol vs Flamengo that most previews miss.
- 1Flamengo have scored at least twice in 7 of their 11 away league matches this season.
- 2Mirassol have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10 home games.
- 3Four of the last five matches for both sides have seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Mirassol vs Flamengo(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 2.1
Both teams have hit over 2.5 goals in at least 55% of their league matches (Mirassol 55%, Flamengo 60%), and the combined season scoring/conceding rates (Mirassol 1.15 for/1.35 against, Flamengo 1.85 for/0.9 against) point to a goal environment above league average.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 1.9
Four of the last five matches for both sides have seen both teams score, and Mirassol have failed to score just once in their last five, while Flamengo have scored in every league away game.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Mirassol vs Flamengo Prediction
A clear gap in attacking output and defensive solidity separates Flamengo from Mirassol, with the visitors' away scoring rate (1.82 goals per away game) and 55% over 2.5 goal rate suggesting a high-probability goal environment. Mirassol's home record is respectable (5W, 3D, 3L), but their defensive metrics (1.18 goals conceded per home match, only 5% clean sheet rate overall) leave them exposed against the league's second-most prolific attack. The statistical profile points to Flamengo controlling the shot count and territory, with Mirassol's best hope coming from their 1.36 goals per home game and a tendency to keep games competitive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Mirassol have kept just 1 clean sheet in 20 league matches (5% clean sheet rate).
Match Context
- →Flamengo average 1.82 goals per away game, with 6 wins from 11 on the road.
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in more than half their matches (Mirassol 55%, Flamengo 60%).
🚩 Mirassol vs Flamengo Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Mirassol and 4.2 for Flamengo, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Mirassol and Flamengo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Mirassol vs Flamengo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Mirassollast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Flamengolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mirassol's recent form is mixed but competitive, with two wins, two draws, and one defeat in their last five, and a tendency to keep games close at home. Flamengo, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last five league matches and have scored at least once in every away game this season, underlining their attacking consistency.
Mirassol vs Flamengo — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 60% avg
What History Says: Mirassol vs Flamengo
The head-to-head record is surprisingly balanced, with two draws (including a 3-3 thriller and a 0-0 stalemate) and one Flamengo win in the last three meetings. Both teams have found the net in two of those encounters, suggesting Mirassol can trouble Flamengo's defence at home.
Mirassol vs Flamengo Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
0
Mirassol wins
2
Draws
2
Flamengo wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Mirassol vs Flamengo
The strongest value edge is on over 2.5 goals, where the model's 58% probability is well above the implied 48% from bookmaker odds (2.1). Both teams to score also shows a modest edge, with four of the last five for each side hitting BTTS. The away win is priced fairly close to model probability, offering only marginal value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Mirassol vs Flamengo
- ⚠️Recent head-to-heads have been unexpectedly high-scoring and competitive (3-3 and 0-0 draws last season).
- ⚠️Mirassol's home attack is capable (1.36 goals per home game) and Flamengo have drawn their last two league matches.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed for either side.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Mirassol 1–2 FlamengoThe model forecasts a 2-1 win for Flamengo, driven by their 1.82 goals per away game and Mirassol's league-worst clean sheet rate. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Mirassol's home attack, which averages 1.36 goals per game, capitalises on any complacency or squad rotation from Flamengo, leading to a high-scoring draw.
Mirassol vs Flamengo: Common Questions
Who will win Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Flamengo are favoured with a 53% win probability, compared to 19% for Mirassol and 28% for the draw, reflecting their superior away record and attacking output.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Flamengo?
There is a 56% probability of both teams scoring, with both sides having seen BTTS in four of their last five matches and Mirassol failing to score just once in that span.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Mirassol vs Flamengo?
The model assigns a 58% probability to over 2.5 goals, well above the implied 48% from bookmaker odds, based on both teams' high over 2.5 rates (Mirassol 55%, Flamengo 60%) and their combined scoring/conceding averages.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Mirassol vs Flamengo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.