Flamengo vs Mirassol Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Flamengo
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 3 - 1
Mirassol
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Flamengo Win
Match Result
7.4/10Flamengo Outclass Mirassol with Commanding 2-0 Victory in Rio
Flamengo delivered a composed and clinical performance at home, dispatching Mirassol 2-0 in a match where the hosts' attacking intent and technical superiority shone through. Goals from Pedro in the 14th minute and Lucas Paquetá just before halftime set the tone, allowing Flamengo to manage proceedings with authority for the remainder of the contest. Mirassol, lining up with a defensive 5-4-1, struggled to create clear-cut chances and were limited to just two shots on target. Despite a determined effort and a handful of dangerous set pieces, the visitors were unable to breach Flamengo's disciplined backline. The result keeps Flamengo firmly in the hunt at the top end of Serie A, while Mirassol will need to regroup after being outplayed in Rio.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
3 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
14' — Goal
Pedro finishes off a flowing move to give Flamengo an early lead.
43' — Goal
Lucas Paquetá doubles the advantage with a well-taken goal before halftime.
52' — Yellow Card
Reinaldo (Mirassol) booked for a late challenge as frustration grows.
67' — Yellow Card
Denilson (Mirassol) shown yellow for persistent fouling in midfield.
78' — Yellow Card
Gabriel (Mirassol) cautioned for dissent after a contentious decision.
Flamengo
Flamengo asserted their dominance from the outset, controlling 56% of possession and registering 14 shots, four of which tested the Mirassol goalkeeper. Their attacking quartet, particularly Lucas Paquetá and Pedro, combined well to unlock Mirassol's packed defence. The home side's midfield duo of E. Pulgar and Jorginho provided the platform for sustained pressure, while the defence remained largely untroubled. With nine corners and intelligent use of the flanks, Flamengo consistently stretched Mirassol. The early goal allowed them to dictate the tempo, and a second before halftime effectively killed the contest. Their discipline was also notable, committing just eight fouls and avoiding any bookings.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Mirassol
Mirassol set out to frustrate Flamengo with a deep-lying 5-4-1 formation, but ultimately lacked the attacking quality to trouble the hosts. With just 44% possession and eight shots (only two on target), their offensive output was limited. The midfield struggled to gain a foothold, and the lone striker André Luís was isolated for much of the match. Despite winning seven corners and showing some resilience in defence, Mirassol were undone by lapses in concentration at key moments. Three yellow cards reflected their struggle to contain Flamengo's movement, and they rarely looked capable of mounting a comeback after falling behind.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Flamengo's 4-2-3-1 set the tone for a proactive, possession-based approach, with the double pivot of Pulgar and Jorginho allowing the attacking trio to operate with freedom. The full-backs, particularly Ayrton Lucas, pushed high to provide width, stretching Mirassol's compact back five. This created pockets of space for Lucas Paquetá and Samuel Lino to exploit between the lines. Mirassol's 5-4-1 was designed to absorb pressure and hit on the break, but the lack of midfield ball-winners and the isolation of André Luís up front left them unable to sustain attacks. As Flamengo grew in confidence, Mirassol resorted to physicality, reflected in their three yellow cards. Substitutions in the second half did little to alter the tactical balance, as Flamengo comfortably saw out the contest.
Turning Point
Lucas Paquetá's goal in the 43rd minute, doubling Flamengo's lead and effectively ending Mirassol's hopes of a comeback.
Man of the Match
Lucas Paquetá
Instrumental in midfield, scored Flamengo's crucial second goal and dictated the tempo throughout.
Flamengo vs Mirassol: Match Preview
Momentum is firmly with Flamengo as they return home off the back of a ruthless 5-1 demolition of Mirassol in the reverse fixture and a strong run of form that has seen them win four of their last five in all competitions. Sitting second in the table, just six points off Palmeiras, Flamengo have their sights set on closing the gap at the top. Mirassol, meanwhile, are stuck in a relegation battle, having collected just two points from their last five league matches and shipping goals at a worrying rate.
The tactical contrast is clear: Flamengo's front four are in sync, averaging 2.2 goals and 6.2 shots on target per game over the last five. Their attacking width and movement have exposed opponents, while Mirassol's back line has been unable to stem the tide, conceding 2.2 per game in the same period. Set pieces could also play a role, with Flamengo averaging over four corners per match and Mirassol conceding plenty of fouls (13 per game). Discipline is another concern for the visitors, who have averaged 2.6 yellow cards and 0.2 reds in their last five.
Expect Flamengo to dictate the tempo from the outset, using their high press and ball retention (55.4% possession average) to pin Mirassol deep. The visitors may find a goal on the break, given Flamengo's occasional lapses, but the home side's momentum and attacking depth should prove decisive. The model points to a high-scoring home win, with Flamengo's recent form and Mirassol's defensive frailty the key drivers.
How Flamengo and Mirassol Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Flamengo vs Mirassol Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Flamengolast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mirassollast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Flamengo are surging, with three wins, one draw, and just one defeat in their last five, highlighted by a 5-1 away win at Mirassol and a 2-1 Libertadores victory. Their attack is firing, and they've scored in every recent match. Mirassol, by contrast, are winless in five, with defensive frailties exposed by 13 goals conceded in that span and only a single point from their last three league games.
Flamengo vs Mirassol — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 56% avg
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Flamengo vs Mirassol Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Flamengo vs Mirassol that most previews miss.
- 1Flamengo have scored in every one of their last five matches, averaging 2.2 per game.
- 2Mirassol have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five, conceding at least two in four of them.
- 3All three previous H2H meetings have seen both teams score and at least three goals in total.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.60
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
69%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 2-1 · 3-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Flamengo vs Mirassol?
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The Case For This Flamengo vs Mirassol Prediction
Flamengo enter this fixture riding a wave of attacking form, having racked up eight goals in their last three league outings and recently dismantling Mirassol 5-1 away. Mirassol, by contrast, are mired in a slump, winless in five and leaking goals at an alarming rate. The contrast in momentum is stark, with Flamengo's high-tempo attack facing a defence that has lost its structure and confidence.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Flamengo's last five: 3W, 1D, 1L, with 11 goals scored.
Defence
- →Mirassol: winless in five, 13 conceded in that stretch.
- →Flamengo's home record: 6W, 3D, 1L, conceding just 8 in 10.
Where the Model Sees Value: Flamengo vs Mirassol(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Flamengo Win
Flamengo have won four of their last five in all competitions, scoring 11 in their last three league games, while Mirassol have taken just two points from their last five and conceded 13 in that stretch. The home side's attacking momentum is overwhelming, especially after putting five past Mirassol in the reverse fixture a fortnight ago.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen four of their last five matches go over 2.5 goals, and Flamengo are averaging 2.2 scored and 1 conceded per game in that span. Mirassol's defence has collapsed recently, conceding at least two in four of their last five.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in four of the last five for both sides, and Mirassol have managed to score in four of those despite their poor form, while Flamengo have kept just one clean sheet in the same span.
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More Serie A Predictions
🚩 Flamengo vs Mirassol Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Flamengo and 4.8 for Mirassol, for an expected total of 10.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 68% · Over 10.5: 43%.
What History Says: Flamengo vs Mirassol
Flamengo have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning two and drawing one of the last three meetings. Goals have flowed freely, with all three clashes producing at least three and both teams scoring each time. The most recent encounter saw Flamengo run riot with a 5-1 away victory.
Flamengo vs Mirassol Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
3
Flamengo wins
1
Draws
0
Mirassol wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Flamengo vs Mirassol
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so it is not possible to identify explicit value edges. However, the model's strong lean towards Flamengo and over 2.5 goals suggests these would be the primary value angles if competitive odds were offered.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Flamengo vs Mirassol
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be computed.
- ⚠️Mirassol have scored in four of their last five despite defeats, so a consolation goal is plausible.
- ⚠️Fixture congestion for Flamengo (Libertadores and league) could prompt rotation, but no injuries are reported.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Flamengo 3–1 MirassolFlamengo's attacking momentum is the defining feature here, with 11 goals in their last five and a recent 5-1 thrashing of Mirassol still fresh. The most likely scenario is a comfortable home win, with the visitors' porous defence unable to withstand repeated pressure. The main risk is Flamengo's fixture congestion leading to rotation or a late lapse, but the gulf in current form is too wide to ignore.
Flamengo vs Mirassol: Common Questions
Who will win Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Flamengo are strong favourites, with a 72% probability of victory based on their recent form and attacking output. Mirassol's winless run and defensive issues make an upset unlikely.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Both teams have found the net in four of their last five matches, and all three previous meetings have seen BTTS. The model gives a 58% chance of both teams scoring.
Can Flamengo's winning run continue?
With three wins and a draw in their last five, and 11 goals scored, Flamengo's momentum is real. Their high shot and chance creation numbers suggest the run is sustainable against a Mirassol side conceding 2.2 per game recently.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Flamengo vs Mirassol: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.