Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Mjallby AIF
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 2
Vasteras SK FK
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Vasteras SK FK Win
@ 4(+28% edge)
Match Result
6.5/10Stalemate at Strandvallen: Mjallby and Vasteras Play Out Goalless Draw
Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK battled to a 0-0 draw at Strandvallen in a match that showcased plenty of endeavor but ultimately lacked the finishing touch. The home side dominated possession with 59% and peppered the Vasteras goal with 15 shots, but only managed to test Elis Jäger three times. Despite their attacking intent and a flurry of 11 corners, Mjallby could not break the deadlock. Vasteras, meanwhile, were content to absorb pressure and look for opportunities on the counter, managing just 5 shots with 2 on target. Both teams matched each other with three yellow cards apiece in a physical contest that saw momentum swing but neither side able to capitalize. The draw leaves both teams ruing missed chances but satisfied with a hard-earned point.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 2
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
12' — Yellow Card
Early booking for Mjallby as Viktor Gustafson goes into the book for a late challenge.
27' — Yellow Card
Vasteras' Mamadou Diagne receives a yellow for a tactical foul, halting a Mjallby counter.
39' — Chance
Olle Lindberg forces a smart save from Elis Jäger after a well-worked corner.
52' — Yellow Card
Jesper Gustavsson of Mjallby is booked for dissent as frustrations mount.
68' — Yellow Card
Philip Bonde picks up a yellow for a cynical foul on Abdoulie Manneh.
74' — Chance
Best chance of the match as Áki Samuelsen heads narrowly wide from close range.
85' — Yellow Card
Simon Gefvert receives Vasteras' third yellow for time-wasting.
Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF dictated the tempo for much of the match, controlling possession and generating a steady stream of attacking opportunities, particularly from set pieces. Their 15 shots and 11 corners reflected their territorial dominance, but a lack of clinical finishing and resolute defending from Vasteras kept them off the scoresheet. The midfield, marshaled by Viktor Gustafson and Jesper Gustavsson, kept the ball moving and pressed high, but the front three could not convert chances into goals. Defensively, Mjallby rarely looked troubled, with the back three of Axel Norén, Ludvig Svanberg, and Tony Miettinen keeping Vasteras' forwards largely at bay. However, frustration mounted as the game wore on, reflected in three yellow cards and a few rash challenges.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK set up to frustrate their hosts and largely succeeded, staying compact in their 3-4-3 formation and conceding few clear-cut chances despite Mjallby's territorial advantage. Goalkeeper Elis Jäger was called into action three times and dealt confidently with everything thrown at him. The midfield, led by Ismet Lushaku and Mamadou Diagne, worked tirelessly to disrupt Mjallby's rhythm, while the back three stood firm under pressure. Going forward, Vasteras struggled to create meaningful opportunities, registering only 5 shots and 3 corners. Their attacking trio found space at a premium, and transitions were often snuffed out before they could develop. The visitors' physical approach was evident, committing 16 fouls and picking up three yellow cards, but it ultimately helped them secure a valuable away point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams mirrored each other with 3-4-3 formations, but Mjallby used their wingbacks, particularly Elliot Stroud, to stretch the play and overload the flanks. Their high pressing and quick transitions kept Vasteras pinned back for long spells, resulting in a high number of corners and shots. However, the lack of a clinical edge in the final third proved costly. Vasteras, in contrast, prioritized defensive solidity and compactness, often dropping their wide midfielders deeper to form a back five when out of possession. Their pressing was selective, focusing on disrupting Mjallby's build-up rather than chasing high up the pitch. While this approach limited their own attacking threat, it succeeded in frustrating the home side and earning a hard-fought point.
Turning Point
Áki Samuelsen's headed miss in the 74th minute—Mjallby's best chance—kept the match goalless and shifted momentum back to a resolute Vasteras defense.
Man of the Match
Elis Jäger
Produced key saves and commanded his area under sustained pressure to preserve a clean sheet for Vasteras.
Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK: Match Preview
Mjallby AIF enter this match on a five-game winless run in competitive fixtures, but their attack remains potent, averaging 2.4 goals per game across their last five outings. Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, sit three places higher in the table and have picked up momentum with back-to-back league wins, including an impressive 3-1 victory away at Halmstad. Both sides are firmly mid-table, with Mjallby tenth and Vasteras seventh, separated by just two points and with little margin for error as the season approaches its midpoint.
The underlying numbers point to a high-tempo, open contest. Mjallby’s last five league matches average 5.4 total goals, while Vasteras are not far behind at 5.0. Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five league games, and neither has failed to score in that span. Mjallby’s home defence concedes exactly one goal per game, but their attack at Strandvallen has been less prolific (1.2 goals per home match). Vasteras, by contrast, have won four of six away, scoring 10 and conceding 11, and their matches see the highest over 2.5 rate (66.7%) among the two.
Given these rates, the model expects a match with multiple swings and a high probability of both teams scoring. The likeliest outcomes cluster around 2-2 and 2-1 either way, with a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% probability of both teams scoring. Defensive frailty on both sides, combined with strong recent attacking form, pushes the expected goal tally above the league average.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
64%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK that most previews miss.
- 1Mjallby’s last five league matches have averaged 5.4 total goals per game.
- 2Vasteras have scored in every away match this season and have a 66.7% over 2.5 goals rate overall.
- 3Both teams have scored in 80% of their last ten combined league games.
Who do you think wins: Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 1.62
Both sides have scored in 9 of their last 10 combined league games, and neither has failed to score in the last five; model probability for BTTS is 68% versus 61.7% implied by odds.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.7
Season over 2.5 goal rates are 50% for Mjallby and 66.7% for Vasteras; both teams average over 2 goals scored per game in their last five.
Match Result: Vasteras SK FK Win@ 4
Vasteras have won 4 of 6 away, and the model gives them a 32% chance to win versus 25% implied by odds, despite being slight underdogs.
More Allsvenskan Predictions
The Case For This Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction
This fixture profiles as a high-variance, open contest between two mid-table sides with above-average attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities. Both Mjallby and Vasteras arrive with recent matches featuring heavy scoring, and their season-long concession rates suggest neither is equipped to shut the other out. The statistical shape points to multiple goals and a strong likelihood of both teams finding the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Mjallby have not kept a clean sheet in their last five competitive matches.
- →Vasteras average 1.83 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game this season.
Match Context
- →Both teams have scored in 9 of their last 10 combined league matches.
🚩 Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Mjallby AIF and 5.2 for Vasteras SK FK, for an expected total of 11.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 80% · Over 10.5: 59%.
How Mjallby AIF and Vasteras SK FK Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Mjallby AIFlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vasteras SK FKlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Mjallby have struggled for wins, going five competitive matches without victory, but their attack has produced 12 goals in that span. Vasteras, on the other hand, have won three of their last five, including two straight, and have scored at least twice in four of those matches. Both teams’ recent games have been high-scoring and open, with defensive issues persisting.
Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK
Mjallby have the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last five meetings—including a 2-1 home win in 2024. Four of the last five encounters have featured at least three goals, and both teams have scored in three of those matches, indicating a tendency for open games when these sides meet.
Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
3
Mjallby AIF wins
2
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK
The model identifies value on both teams to score (BTTS yes) at 1.62, with a 68% model probability versus 61.7% implied by the odds. There is also a notable edge on Vasteras to win at 4.00, as the model rates their chances at 32% compared to the market’s 25%. Over 2.5 goals also offers a modest edge, with the model's 64% probability outpacing the market's 58.8%.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK
- ⚠️Recent friendlies for both teams inflate attacking numbers; league matches are weighted higher in the model.
- ⚠️Neither side has significant injury absences, but late lineup changes could affect defensive stability.
- ⚠️Mjallby's home record (2W, 0D, 3L) is modest, and Vasteras' away record (4W, 0D, 2L) may be slightly flattered by schedule.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Mjallby AIF 2–2 Vasteras SK FKA 2-2 draw is the most statistically robust outcome, driven by both teams’ high scoring and concession rates—especially their recent inability to keep clean sheets. The single strongest data point is the combined average of over 5 goals per game in their recent league fixtures. The main risk to this projection is if either side reverts to a more conservative approach, suppressing the expected goal tally.
Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK: Common Questions
Who will win Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK?
The model gives Mjallby a 37% chance of victory, Vasteras a 32% chance, and a draw 31%. With both teams in similar form and defensive issues on both sides, a draw or narrow win for either is most likely.
Will both teams score in Mjallby vs Vasteras?
There is a 68% probability that both teams will score, based on neither side failing to score in their last five league games and both averaging over 2 goals per game recently.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Mjallby vs Vasteras?
The model estimates a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals, supported by recent matches averaging over 5 goals for both teams and Vasteras' 66.7% season over 2.5 rate.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.