NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia Predictions
UEFA Europa League · World
NEC Nijmegen
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Levski Sofia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7/10NEC Nijmegen Held by Levski Sofia in Spirited Europa League Stalemate
NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia played out a 1-1 draw at Stadion de Goffert in a tightly contested UEFA Europa League encounter. The visitors struck first through Reinaldo in the 35th minute, capitalizing on a rare defensive lapse from the hosts. NEC responded with renewed vigor after the break, eventually drawing level midway through the second half thanks to a composed finish from D. Tadić. Despite dominating the attacking statistics with 18 shots (9 on target) and a slight edge in possession (51%), NEC could not find a winner against a resolute Levski Sofia defense. Both sides matched each other in intensity, each committing 14 fouls, but neither could produce the decisive moment in the closing stages, leaving the points shared in Nijmegen.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
35' — Goal
Reinaldo finishes off a swift Levski Sofia counter-attack to put the visitors ahead.
41' — Yellow Card
NEC's N. Lebreton receives the only booking of the match for a tactical foul.
64' — Goal
D. Tadić levels for NEC Nijmegen with a composed finish after sustained pressure.
78' — Substitution
NEC introduce fresh legs up front in search of a winner, but Levski Sofia hold firm.
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen showed attacking intent throughout, registering 18 shots with 9 on target and maintaining a slight majority of possession. Their 3-4-3 formation allowed for width and numbers in attack, but they struggled to convert dominance into goals. The hosts responded well after conceding, with D. Tadić leading the charge to restore parity. However, despite sustained pressure and six corners, they were unable to break down Levski Sofia's disciplined back line for a second time.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia executed a disciplined game plan, absorbing pressure and striking on the break. Their 4-3-3 setup provided defensive solidity, limiting NEC to mostly speculative efforts despite conceding possession. Reinaldo's first-half goal showcased their ability to capitalize on moments, but they struggled to maintain attacking momentum, managing just 8 shots (2 on target). Ultimately, their defensive organization and work rate earned them a valuable away point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
NEC Nijmegen deployed a 3-4-3 formation, seeking to overload the flanks and stretch Levski Sofia's back four. Their wing-backs pushed high, creating width and supporting the front three, while the midfield duo worked to recycle possession and press high. Levski Sofia, in contrast, set up in a compact 4-3-3, prioritizing defensive solidity and looking to spring quick counters through their front line. The Bulgarian side's full-backs rarely ventured forward, focusing instead on nullifying NEC's wide threats. Substitutions in the second half saw NEC add attacking impetus, but Levski's disciplined shape and timely interventions kept the score level. Set pieces offered NEC another avenue, but Levski's aerial presence limited their effectiveness.
Turning Point
D. Tadić's equalizer in the 64th minute shifted the momentum and set up a tense finale, but neither side could capitalize thereafter.
Man of the Match
D. Tadić
Led by example, scored the equalizer, and was NEC's most creative and dangerous player throughout.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: Match Preview
NEC Nijmegen enter this fixture on the back of a difficult run, winless in their last five and having conceded 14 goals in that span. Their Europa League campaign began with a heavy 0-5 defeat away to Juventus, leaving them bottom of the group and in urgent need of a result. Levski Sofia also lost their opening group game, 0-1 at home to Red Bull Salzburg, but their domestic and continental form is steadier, with two wins and a draw in their last five outings across all competitions.
From a statistical standpoint, both teams have struggled to convert possession into goals. Nijmegen average just 0.8 goals scored per game in their last five, while Levski are only marginally better at 1.0. The Dutch side's defensive frailty is clear—2.8 goals conceded per game recently—yet Levski's attack has produced only 1.6 shots on target per match in the same period. Set-piece threat is modest on both sides, with Nijmegen averaging 2.8 corners and Levski 3.8, suggesting few easy scoring chances.
Given these rates, the model expects a low-scoring, evenly matched contest. Nijmegen's home advantage is offset by their defensive record, while Levski's lack of attacking punch away from home tempers their prospects. The most probable scenario is a 1-1 draw, with neither side able to dominate but both likely to find the net once.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia that most previews miss.
- 1Nijmegen have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding at least once in every outing.
- 2Levski Sofia's last five matches average just 2.2 total goals per game, with only one of those exceeding 2.5 goals.
- 3Both teams have scored more second-half goals (Nijmegen: 2, Levski: 4) than first-half across their last five matches.
Who do you think wins: NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average below 1.0 goals scored per game in Europe this season, and neither attack is in rhythm—Nijmegen's last five see them at 0.8 goals scored, Levski at 1.0. With defensive vulnerabilities on both sides but little cutting edge, a low-scoring draw is statistically the most likely outcome.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Levski have seen under 2.5 in their only group match and average just 1.2 conceded per game in their last five; Nijmegen's output is also modest, with only one match in their last five going over 2.5. The model assigns 59% probability to the under, reflecting the low attacking output.
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More UEFA Europa League Predictions
The Case For This NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia Prediction
Statistically, this is a meeting of two sides with limited attacking output and defensive question marks, particularly for Nijmegen, who have conceded 14 times in their last five matches. Levski's away record in Europe is untested this season, but their overall recent form is steadier, conceding just 1.2 per game over the last five. The most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw, with the data pointing to a cagey contest lacking in clear chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Levski Sofia have failed to score in two of their last five and average just 1.6 shots on target per game.
Defence
- →Nijmegen average 0.8 goals scored and 2.8 conceded per game over their last five matches.
- →Neither side has kept a clean sheet in the Europa League group stage so far.
🚩 NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for NEC Nijmegen and 4 for Levski Sofia, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
NEC Nijmegenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Levski Sofialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
NEC Nijmegen are winless in their last five, with a form string of DLLDL and a damaging 0-5 loss to Juventus in their only Europa League group match. Levski Sofia have fared slightly better, winning two and drawing one of their last five, but also lost their group opener. Both sides have struggled for goals and consistency, but Levski's defensive numbers are marginally steadier.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia — Last 2 Matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
There is no head-to-head record available between NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia, so no historical trends or dominant patterns can be identified for this fixture.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
NEC Nijmegen wins
1
Draws
0
Levski Sofia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
No bookmaker odds are available at the time of analysis, so value edges cannot be calculated. Once odds are posted, the model's probabilities—particularly the high chance of a draw and under 2.5 goals—should be compared for potential value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
- ⚠️No head-to-head data available; no direct historical matchup to inform probabilities.
- ⚠️Both teams have only played one group match, so group-stage rates are based on small samples.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis—value edges cannot be calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Levski SofiaThe model calls this a 1-1 draw, driven by both teams' low scoring rates—Nijmegen at 0.8 and Levski at 1.0 per game in the last five—and neither defence showing enough to expect a clean sheet. The main risk is that Nijmegen's defensive collapse against Juventus signals deeper structural issues, which could allow Levski to capitalise more than the numbers suggest.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: Common Questions
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
The probabilities are closely split: 36% for a Nijmegen win, 36% for a draw, and 28% for a Levski Sofia win. Both teams have struggled to score, so a draw is the most likely outcome according to the model.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?
The model gives a 48% chance of both teams scoring and a 52% chance of at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Both attacks are below par, but both defences have shown vulnerabilities.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 59%, with both teams averaging under 1.0 goal scored per game in their last five matches. Only one of Levski's last five has gone over 2.5.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.