New England Revolution vs New York City FC Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
New England Revolution
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
New York City FC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.45(+10% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Late First-Half Goals Leave Revolution and NYCFC Deadlocked in Foxborough
New England Revolution and New York City FC played out a 1-1 draw at Gillette Stadium, with both goals coming in a dramatic close to the first half. The Revolution struck first in the 36th minute, but their lead was short-lived as NYCFC responded right on the stroke of halftime. Both sides created chances throughout, but resolute defending and strong goalkeeping ensured the points were shared. The match was a tale of two halves: New England edged possession with 52% and looked lively going forward, registering 6 shots on target from 10 attempts. NYCFC, meanwhile, were more direct, firing 12 shots with 5 on target, and grew into the contest as it wore on. Despite tactical tweaks and a flurry of late corners, neither team could find a decisive breakthrough after the interval.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
36' — Goal
New England Revolution take the lead after a well-worked move finished off by their forward.
45' — Goal
Nicolás Fernández equalizes for NYCFC on the stroke of halftime, capitalizing on a lapse in the Revolution defense.
52' — Yellow Card
New England's midfielder is booked for a late challenge in midfield.
67' — Yellow Card
NYCFC pick up a yellow card for persistent fouling as New England push forward.
New England Revolution
The Revolution started brightly, controlling possession and dictating the tempo in midfield. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed Carles Gil to orchestrate attacks, resulting in a deserved opener in the 36th minute. However, lapses in concentration before halftime let NYCFC back into the game. In the second half, New England pressed for a winner, but struggled to break down a disciplined NYCFC defense, despite creating several promising opportunities and earning 6 corners.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
New York City FC
NYCFC grew into the contest after a slow start, absorbing early pressure and then striking back with a crucial equalizer just before halftime. Their 4-4-2 formation offered solidity, while the front two—Nicolás Fernández and Talles Magno—posed a constant threat on the break. The visitors were aggressive, committing 12 fouls and picking up a yellow card, but their defensive organization in the second half frustrated the hosts and secured a valuable away point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
New England set up in a 4-2-3-1, looking to dominate possession and use Carles Gil's creativity to unlock the NYCFC defense. Their full-backs pushed high, providing width and stretching the visitors early on. NYCFC responded with a compact 4-4-2, sitting deep and looking to spring quick counters through Fernández and Magno. The match saw a clear contrast in styles: New England's patient build-up versus NYCFC's directness. As the game wore on, both managers made tactical tweaks—New England pushed their midfielders higher, while NYCFC reinforced their back line and looked to preserve the point, ultimately resulting in a tactical stalemate. Set pieces were a battleground, with New England earning more corners (6 to 4), but both sides defended their boxes well. The physicality increased in the second half, as evidenced by NYCFC's 12 fouls and a yellow card apiece, but neither side could capitalize on set-piece opportunities.
Turning Point
Nicolás Fernández's equalizer in first-half stoppage time shifted the momentum and set the stage for a cagey second half.
Man of the Match
Nicolás Fernández
Scored the crucial equalizer and was a constant threat in attack, ensuring NYCFC left with a point.
New England Revolution vs New York City FC: Match Preview
New England Revolution host New York City FC with both sides needing points to keep pace in the playoff race. New England sit third but have stumbled recently, picking up just one win in their last five (form: LDWDL) and failing to score in three of those. NYCFC, fifth in the table, arrive on a mixed run themselves (LLWDW in all comps), but have been more consistent in front of goal and have not failed to score in any of their last five.
Statistically, the matchup is finely balanced. New England's home attack (1.91 goals/game at home) is blunted by recent struggles, while NYCFC's away defence (1.13 goals conceded/game) is solid but not watertight. Both sides average over a goal per game in attack and concede at a similar rate, and the last five for each show almost identical goals conceded (1.2 per game). Set pieces are unlikely to be decisive, with both teams averaging below 6 corners per match recently. Discipline is an undercurrent, with both averaging 1.8 yellows per game in the last five.
The market prices this as a coin flip, but the model sees a slightly higher chance of a draw than the odds suggest, with both teams' recent inconsistency and the H2H record (three draws in last ten) supporting that. Expect a cagey contest, with both sides likely to score but neither able to fully control the game. A 1-2 away win is the likeliest single outcome, but the draw offers the best value given the probabilities.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: New England Revolution vs New York City FC
The model's biggest divergence from the market is on the draw, which it rates at 32% (fair odds 3.13) against the market's 3.45. Both teams' inconsistent form and a history of stalemates make this the most attractive value angle. Other markets, such as both teams to score and over/under 2.5 goals, are broadly in line with the odds, offering little edge.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: New England Revolution vs New York City FC(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.48
The model gives a 32% chance of a draw (implied fair odds 3.13), while the market offers 3.45 (implied 29%), yielding a +10% edge. Both sides have drawn 3 and 5 times respectively this season, and their last 10 H2H include 3 draws.
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New England Revolution vs New York City FC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind New England Revolution vs New York City FC that most previews miss.
- 1NYCFC have failed to keep a clean sheet in 83% of away games this season, but have scored in 7 of 8 on the road.
- 2Three of the last ten H2H meetings ended in draws, with two finishing 1-1.
- 3New England's last five home matches have averaged just 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This New England Revolution vs New York City FC Prediction
Bookmakers rate this as a dead-even contest, but the underlying numbers show New York City FC carrying a slight edge in attacking output and recent form. New England's home record is strong (8 wins in 11), yet their attack has sputtered lately with just 1.2 goals per game over the last five and three matches without scoring. NYCFC, meanwhile, have failed to score only once in their last 10 and average 1.6 goals per game across their last five, including all competitions. The tactical battle centres on New England's possession-based approach (54.6% average over the last five) against an NYCFC side that has been more direct, with fewer shots but higher conversion. NYCFC's away defence is relatively solid (9 conceded in 8 away), but their clean sheet rate is low (16.7%), suggesting both teams are likely to find the net. Set piece threat is muted on both sides, with corners per game below league average (NE: 5.4, NYCFC: 1.8 in last five), so open play should decide this. Expect a tense, competitive match with neither side able to fully impose themselves. The model leans towards a narrow NYCFC win, but with both teams' recent inconsistency and the high draw probability, the best value lies in the stalemate. A 1-2 away win is the most likely single score, but a 1-1 or 2-2 draw is not far behind.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →New England have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
Match Context
- →NYCFC have scored in every one of their last 5 and failed to score just once in 10.
- →New England's home record (8W-1D-2L) is offset by NYCFC's strong H2H away record (5 wins in last 10 overall meetings).
🚩 New England Revolution vs New York City FC Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for New England Revolution and 4 for New York City FC, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How New England Revolution and New York City FC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
New England Revolution vs New York City FC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
New England Revolutionlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New York City FClast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New England's recent form is patchy, with just one win in their last five and three matches where they failed to score. NYCFC have been more consistent in attack, netting in all of their last five, but have also suffered back-to-back defeats in the Leagues Cup. Both teams are struggling for momentum, but NYCFC's ability to find the net gives them a slight edge.
New England Revolution vs New York City FC — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: New England Revolution vs New York City FC
NYCFC have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning five of the last ten encounters, including three away from home. Draws are also common, with three of the last ten meetings ending level and two finishing 1-1. High-scoring games are rare in this fixture, with only three of the last ten exceeding three goals.
New England Revolution vs New York City FC Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
New England Revolution wins
4
Draws
4
New York City FC wins
Things to Watch: New England Revolution vs New York City FC
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is patchy, with each showing both strong and weak performances in the last month.
- ⚠️No injury data or major suspensions are reported, but lack of lineups means late changes could affect the balance.
- ⚠️NYCFC's recent Leagues Cup losses may not fully reflect their MLS level, adding some uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
New England Revolution 1–2 New York City FCThe model projects a 2-1 win for New York City FC, but the strongest data point is the high draw probability—both teams have drawn multiple times this season and their H2H history is littered with stalemates. The biggest risk is that NYCFC's recent Leagues Cup form underestimates their MLS level, or that New England's home advantage reasserts itself after a poor run.
New England Revolution vs New York City FC: Common Questions
Who will win New England Revolution vs New York City FC?
The model gives New York City FC a 37% chance of victory, New England 31%, and the draw 32%. The odds suggest a dead-even contest, but the data slightly favours NYCFC due to their more consistent attack and H2H edge.
Is both teams to score a good bet for New England vs NYCFC?
Both teams to score is rated at 62% probability by the model, with both sides averaging over a goal per game and NYCFC scoring in every one of their last five. However, the odds (1.55) imply a 65% chance, so the value is limited.
Where is the best value in the New England vs NYCFC odds?
The draw is the standout value, with the model estimating a 32% chance (fair odds 3.13) versus the market's 3.45 (29% implied). Both teams' recent form and H2H history support a high draw probability.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for New England Revolution vs New York City FC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 16 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More New England Revolution vs New York City FC Resources
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New England Revolution vs New York City FC Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results