New York City FC vs New England Revolution Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
New York City FC
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 2
New England Revolution
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: New England Revolution Win
@ 3.25(+27% edge)
Match Result
8/10Late Drama at Yankee Stadium as Revolution Stun NYCFC with Last-Gasp Winner
New England Revolution snatched a dramatic 2-1 victory over New York City FC at Yankee Stadium, courtesy of a stoppage-time goal that silenced the home crowd. The visitors took an early lead in the 12th minute, but NYCFC responded with sustained pressure, finally equalizing through a well-worked move in the 71st minute. Just as the hosts seemed poised to push for a winner, New England struck at the death, capitalizing on a rare late chance to secure all three points. NYCFC dominated possession with 66% and peppered the Revolution goal with 18 shots (6 on target), but their inefficiency in front of goal and inability to convert set pieces—despite earning 12 corners—proved costly. New England, meanwhile, were clinical, matching NYCFC's shots on target tally (6) from fewer attempts and weathering the storm with disciplined defending and timely interventions.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
12' — Goal
New England Revolution open the scoring, taking an early 1-0 lead.
71' — Goal
A. Ojeda levels for NYCFC after sustained pressure.
90' — Goal
New England Revolution score a dramatic late winner to seal the victory.
Various' — Yellow Cards
New England pick up two yellow cards as they disrupt NYCFC's flow.
New York City FC
NYCFC controlled the tempo for much of the match, dictating play with their 4-3-3 formation and dominating possession. Their midfield trio orchestrated attacks and recycled possession efficiently, but the final product was often lacking. Despite creating numerous opportunities and forcing six saves from Matt Turner, they struggled to break down a resolute Revolution defense and were ultimately punished for their profligacy. The hosts' equalizer in the 71st minute briefly reignited hopes, but a lack of defensive concentration in the dying moments allowed the visitors to steal the win. NYCFC's inability to capitalize on their 12 corners and superior ball retention will be a source of frustration.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
New England Revolution
The Revolution executed a classic away performance, absorbing pressure and striking at key moments. Despite seeing just 34% of the ball, they were disciplined in defense and clinical on the break, scoring early to unsettle the hosts and then withstanding waves of NYCFC attacks. Their resilience was rewarded in stoppage time when they snatched a dramatic winner, showcasing their ability to remain dangerous until the final whistle. Matt Turner was instrumental between the posts, while Carles Gil pulled the strings in midfield, and the front line capitalized on limited opportunities. The Revolution also managed the game's physical side, committing 10 fouls and picking up two yellow cards to disrupt NYCFC's rhythm.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in 4-3-3 formations, but NYCFC sought to control the midfield and build patiently, while the Revolution set up to absorb pressure and strike quickly in transition. NYCFC's fullbacks pushed high, contributing to their dominance in possession and territorial advantage, but this left them exposed to quick counters, which New England exploited for both goals. The Revolution's compact defensive lines forced NYCFC to attack from wide areas and rely on set pieces, but the hosts failed to convert any of their 12 corners. Substitutions in the second half saw NYCFC push more bodies forward, but the Revolution remained organized and capitalized on a late lapse to clinch the win.
Turning Point
The stoppage-time winner for New England Revolution, which came against the run of play and sealed all three points.
Man of the Match
Carles Gil
Pulled the strings in midfield, contributed to both goals, and provided composure under pressure.
New York City FC vs New England Revolution: Match Preview
New York City FC enter this fixture in a slump, winless in their last five league matches (DDLLL) and conceding 1.8 goals per game over that stretch. Their home form is mixed, with just four wins from eleven at Yankee Stadium, and they sit 7th in the standings, nine points behind New England Revolution. The visitors, meanwhile, are 4th and have taken seven points from their last three, including a 3-1 away win at Columbus and a 3-0 win at DC United, signalling a recovery after two August defeats.
Statistically, this matchup leans towards goals. Both teams average 1.64 goals scored per game this season, and New England's away matches see 3.0 total goals on average. NYCFC have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five, and both teams have scored in every one of those games. New England's attack has been more efficient of late, averaging 1.6 goals and 6.6 shots on target per game in their last five, while NYCFC's defence has struggled to contain opponents, especially after half-time (0 second-half goals scored in the last five).
The model expects a high-tempo contest with both sides finding the net, but New England's superior shot volume and recent away form give them the edge. With both teams' over 2.5 goal rates above 54%, and neither side showing defensive solidity, the likeliest scorelines are 2-1 or 2-2. The away win is the value angle, as New England's underlying rates and momentum outweigh NYCFC's home advantage.
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
New York City FC vs New England Revolution Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind New York City FC vs New England Revolution that most previews miss.
- 1NYCFC have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding at least once in all.
- 2New England's away matches average 3.0 total goals per game (14 scored, 16 conceded in 10).
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have ended with both teams scoring.
Who do you think wins: New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: New York City FC vs New England Revolution(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: New England Revolution Win@ 3.3
New England Revolution have a higher season points total (37 vs 28), a better away scoring rate (1.4 goals per away game), and arrive with two wins in their last three, while NYCFC are winless in five (DDLLL). The model assigns a 39% chance to the away win, well above the 31% implied by the odds.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.67
Both sides average 1.64 goals per game this season, and the over 2.5 has landed in 54.6% of NYCFC matches and 63.6% of New England's. The model projects a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals, slightly above the market.
Read more ↓
More Major League Soccer Predictions
The Case For This New York City FC vs New England Revolution Prediction
Statistically, this fixture sets up as a high-variance contest between two attack-minded sides with defensive frailties. New England Revolution's superior away scoring rate and recent uptick in form tilt the probabilities in their favour, despite NYCFC's home advantage. Expect a match with goals at both ends, driven by both teams' tendency to concede and a track record of over 2.5 goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →New England Revolution have scored 36 and conceded 27 in 22 matches, with a 1.64 goals per game average matching NYCFC's output.
- →NYCFC are winless in their last five (DDLLL), conceding 1.8 goals per game in that span.
Match Context
- →Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54.6% of NYCFC's matches and 63.6% of New England's this season.
🚩 New York City FC vs New England Revolution Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for New York City FC and 4.6 for New England Revolution, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 49%.
How New York City FC and New England Revolution Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
New York City FC vs New England Revolution Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
New York City FClast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
New England Revolutionlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
NYCFC are in a negative run, failing to win any of their last five matches and conceding nine goals in that span. New England Revolution, by contrast, have won two of their last three, including a convincing 3-1 away win at Columbus, and have outscored opponents 7-2 across those victories.
New York City FC vs New England Revolution — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: New York City FC vs New England Revolution
The head-to-head record is balanced, with NYCFC winning four and New England two of the last ten, but draws have been common (four in ten). Recent meetings have been tight, with the last two ending level and six of the last ten seeing both teams score.
New York City FC vs New England Revolution Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
New York City FC wins
4
Draws
3
New England Revolution wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: New York City FC vs New England Revolution
The away win stands out as the clearest value, with the model's 39% probability well above the 31% implied by odds of 3.25. Over 2.5 goals is also slightly undervalued by the market, but the edge is marginal. BTTS 'yes' is priced efficiently and offers little statistical edge.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: New York City FC vs New England Revolution
- ⚠️NYCFC's home record is middling (4W, 3D, 4L), making home advantage less pronounced.
- ⚠️New England's away record is inconsistent (3W, 2D, 5L), so their edge is statistical rather than dominant.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are unknown at this stage and could affect late probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
New York City FC 1–2 New England RevolutionThe model projects a 2-1 away win for New England Revolution, with their higher shot output (16.4 per game last five) and NYCFC's defensive issues (1.8 conceded per game last five) as the decisive factors. The biggest risk to this call is NYCFC rediscovering their attacking rhythm at home, where they've scored 25 in 11, which could turn this into a high-scoring draw.
New York City FC vs New England Revolution: Common Questions
Who will win New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
The model gives New England Revolution a 39% chance of victory, compared to 32% for NYCFC and 29% for the draw. New England's stronger season record and recent away form tip the balance slightly in their favour.
Will both teams score in New York City FC vs New England Revolution?
There is a 63% probability that both teams will score, based on both sides' season averages and the fact that NYCFC have seen BTTS in all of their last five matches.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for NYCFC vs New England Revolution?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61%, with both teams' matches exceeding that line in more than half of their games this season (NYCFC 54.6%, New England 63.6%).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for New York City FC vs New England Revolution: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More New York City FC vs New England Revolution Resources
New York City FC Predictions
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New England Revolution Predictions
All New England Revolution fixtures & tips
New York City FC vs New England Revolution Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Major League Soccer Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results