Newcastle vs Everton Predictions
Premier League · England
Newcastle
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Everton
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.5(+19% edge)
Recommended Bets: Newcastle vs Everton
Newcastle vs Everton: Match Preview
Newcastle and Everton approach this fixture separated by a single point in the Premier League table, each struggling for consistency and lacking a clear edge in home or away performance. Newcastle's recent form is patchy, with two wins and three losses in their last five, while Everton arrive on the back of two straight defeats but have proven difficult to beat away, drawing three of four on the road. With both teams in the mid-table pack, the incentive is to avoid defeat as much as to chase three points.
The statistical matchup points to a low-scoring, evenly contested game. Newcastle average 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per match, but at home their output drops to 1.5 for and 1.5 against. Everton's away matches have seen just eight total goals in four games (two per match), and their season-long over 2.5 goal rate is only 25%. Both sides generate similar shot volumes (Newcastle 12.8, Everton 13.2 per game over the last five), but Everton's attack has failed to score in two of their last five, while Newcastle have just one clean sheet in the same span. Set-piece and card rates are unremarkable, with both teams averaging around 4.5 corners and 2 yellow cards per game recently.
Given the lack of attacking fluency and the statistical preference for draws in both teams' profiles, the model projects a 1-1 scoreline as most likely. The main risk to this scenario is Newcastle's defensive volatility, having conceded four goals twice in their last five, but Everton's conservative away approach and low scoring rate suggest a tight contest with few clear chances.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Newcastle vs Everton Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Newcastle vs Everton that most previews miss.
- 1Everton's away matches have finished under 2.5 goals in three of four league games this season.
- 2Newcastle have scored exactly two goals in three of their eight league matches, but only once at home in the last three.
- 3The last five league meetings between these sides at St. James' Park have produced both teams scoring in three instances.
Who do you think wins: Newcastle vs Everton?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Newcastle vs Everton(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.58
The model assigns a 34% probability to the draw, compared to an implied 28.6% from the odds, with both teams showing similar season-long scoring rates (Newcastle 1.5, Everton 1.0) and defensive records (1.75 vs 1.13 conceded per game), and neither side consistently outperforming at home or away.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.2
Everton matches have only gone over 2.5 goals in 25% of their games this season, and Newcastle's attack has averaged just 1.2 goals over the last five, suggesting a lower-scoring contest than the market expects.
Read more ↓
More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Newcastle vs Everton Prediction
Both Newcastle and Everton enter this fixture with near-identical records and negative goal differences, sitting mid-table after eight matches. Newcastle's recent form is mixed (WLLWL), with a notable away win at Crystal Palace but also heavy defeats to Coventry and Leeds. Everton, winless in their last three league outings, have drawn three of four away matches and struggle to convert possession into goals on their travels. Statistically, the matchup is defined by Newcastle's modest home output (6 scored, 6 conceded in four games) against Everton's conservative away profile (3 scored, 5 conceded in four). Newcastle average 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game this season, while Everton's numbers are 1.0 for and 1.13 against, with their away games tending to be tight, low-scoring affairs. Both sides' last five matches show a decline in attacking output and a combined three clean sheets, but Everton have failed to score in two of their last five. Given these underlying rates and the lack of a clear home or away advantage, the model expects a balanced contest with limited clear chances. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, supported by both teams' recent inability to dominate matches and a head-to-head record that has produced two draws in the last five Premier League meetings. The goal environment projects slightly below average, with under 2.5 goals holding value given Everton's defensive approach on the road.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Everton are winless away (D3 L1), scoring just 0.75 goals per away game.
Defence
- →Newcastle's home record is W1 D2 L1 (6 scored, 6 conceded) — no home dominance.
Match Context
- →Everton matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 75% of league games this season.
🚩 Newcastle vs Everton Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Newcastle and 4.8 for Everton, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How Newcastle and Everton Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Newcastle vs Everton Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Newcastlelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Evertonlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Newcastle's recent form is uneven, alternating wins and losses in their last five matches, with a notable 2-0 away win at Crystal Palace but also heavy defeats to Coventry and Leeds. Everton, meanwhile, are winless in their last three league games, including back-to-back losses to Chelsea and Arsenal, and have managed only two goals in their last three outings. Both sides have struggled to put together a sustained run of results, reflected in their mid-table positions.
Newcastle vs Everton — Last 8 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Newcastle vs Everton
Everton have had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning five of the last ten encounters, including a 3-2 away win at St. James' Park last season. However, two of the last five league meetings have ended in draws, and the scoring patterns have varied, with both high and low-scoring games. The head-to-head record suggests no overwhelming advantage for either side in this fixture.
Newcastle vs Everton Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Newcastle wins
2
Draws
5
Everton wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Newcastle vs Everton
The model identifies the draw at 3.5 as the standout value, with a 19% expected edge over the market's implied probability. Under 2.5 goals at 2.2 is also flagged for value, given Everton's strong under trend and both teams' modest attacking output. These selections are supported by season-long rates rather than recent one-off results.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Newcastle vs Everton
- ⚠️Recent form for both sides is inconsistent, with Newcastle's defence vulnerable in several matches.
- ⚠️Head-to-head record slightly favours Everton, but recent draws suggest no clear trend.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but potential late changes could affect lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Newcastle 1–1 EvertonThe model forecasts a 1-1 draw, with the strongest data point being Everton's 75% under 2.5 goals rate in league play and Newcastle's lack of home scoring dominance. The likeliest way this projection fails is if Newcastle's defensive lapses resurface, as seen in recent heavy defeats, or if Everton's attack finds unexpected efficiency on the break.
Newcastle vs Everton: Common Questions
Who will win Newcastle vs Everton?
The model gives Newcastle a 38% chance of victory, Everton a 28% chance, and the draw a 34% probability. Both teams have struggled for consistency, making the draw the most likely single outcome.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Everton?
There's a 54% chance both teams find the net, with Newcastle averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game, while Everton's away defence has been solid but not impenetrable.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Newcastle vs Everton?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured by the model at 54% probability, compared to just 25% of Everton's matches going over this line this season, suggesting value on a lower-scoring contest.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Newcastle vs Everton: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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