Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Predictions
Premier League · England
Nottingham Forest
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Liverpool
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 3.55(+16% edge)
Match Result
7.3/10Ekitiké Strikes Late as Liverpool Edge Forest in Dramatic Finish
Liverpool snatched all three points at the City Ground with a dramatic 90th-minute winner from Hugo Ekitiké, breaking Nottingham Forest hearts after a tense and closely fought contest. Despite Forest's energetic approach and a flurry of attacking intent, the hosts failed to convert their 18 shots into a goal, managing just two on target. Liverpool, meanwhile, were more clinical, registering four shots on target from ten attempts and ultimately capitalizing on a late opportunity to seal the win. The match was a tactical chess match for much of the afternoon, with both sides deploying 4-2-3-1 formations and looking to control the midfield. Forest's pressing and width caused Liverpool problems, but the visitors' resilience and experience shone through in the dying moments. The result keeps Liverpool's momentum going in the Premier League title race, while Forest are left to rue missed chances and a lack of cutting edge in the final third.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
13' — Yellow card
Nottingham Forest pick up their first yellow card, setting the tone for their aggressive pressing.
38' — Yellow card
Forest receive a second yellow, highlighting their combative approach in midfield.
90' — Goal
Hugo Ekitiké scores for Liverpool, finishing off a late move to seal victory.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest put in a spirited display, matching Liverpool for long stretches and even outshooting the visitors with 18 attempts. Morgan Gibbs-White and Callum Hudson-Odoi provided creativity and drive from midfield, but Forest's finishing let them down, with only two shots testing Alisson. The hosts also earned seven corners, reflecting their attacking intent, but ultimately lacked the composure in front of goal to make their dominance count. Defensively, Forest were largely solid, with Nikola Milenković and Murillo marshalling the back line effectively until the late lapse that allowed Ekitiké to pounce. The two yellow cards, a result of their aggressive pressing, highlighted their commitment but also their occasional lack of discipline.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Liverpool
Liverpool weathered early Forest pressure and gradually asserted control, enjoying 53% possession and making their superior quality count when it mattered most. While they managed only ten shots, their four on target showcased a more clinical edge, and their patience was rewarded with Ekitiké's dramatic late winner. The midfield pairing of Gravenberch and Mac Allister provided stability, while Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo threatened on the break. Defensively, Liverpool were disciplined and limited Forest to just two shots on target, with Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konaté commanding at the back. The Reds' ability to stay composed under pressure and pounce on a late chance underlined their title credentials.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1, leading to a congested midfield battle. Forest pressed high and looked to exploit the flanks through Hudson-Odoi and Williams, while Liverpool were content to control possession and probe patiently. The Reds' midfield duo of Gravenberch and Mac Allister provided a solid base, allowing their attacking trio to find pockets of space between the lines. Set pieces were a key avenue for Forest, as evidenced by their seven corners, but Liverpool's defensive organization nullified these threats. The late stages saw Liverpool push forward with greater urgency, and a tactical tweak to get more bodies in the box paid dividends with Ekitiké's late strike.
Turning Point
Hugo Ekitiké's 90th-minute goal, capitalizing on a rare lapse in the Forest defence, decided the contest.
Man of the Match
Hugo Ekitiké
Came up with the decisive moment, showing composure to net the winner in stoppage time.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 3.55
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (44%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (28%), and both teams have shown goal-scoring potential in recent matches, with Liverpool averaging 3 goals/game in last 5 and Forest showing improvement.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 3.9
BTTS 'yes' value edge: Liverpool are strong in attack but have conceded in 61% of season matches; Forest have scored in 4/5 recent games and Liverpool's away defence is not watertight.
Read more ↓
More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Prediction
Liverpool travel to Nottingham Forest as strong favourites, but the hosts have shown resilience at home and have improved defensively, keeping 3 clean sheets in their last 5. Liverpool are in better form, winning 4 of their last 5 in all competitions and averaging 3 goals per game in that stretch. However, Forest's recent attacking output and Liverpool's tendency to concede away from home suggest the hosts could get on the scoresheet. The most likely scenario is a Liverpool win, but a competitive match with goals at both ends is possible, especially if Forest can replicate their recent H2H upset at Anfield.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent H2H: Forest won 3-0 at Anfield this season.
Defence
- →Liverpool's last 5: 4 wins, 1 loss, 3.0 goals scored per game, 0.6 conceded.
- →Forest's last 5: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 1.6 goals scored, 0.8 conceded.
- →Liverpool away: 5W 3D 5L, 20 scored, 21 conceded (season).
- →Forest home: 3W 4D 6L, 13 scored, 18 conceded (season).
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Liverpool have a higher over 2.5 goal % (61.5%) than Forest (50%).
- →Forest have failed to score in only 1 of last 5.
🚩 Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Nottingham Forest and 4.4 for Liverpool, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Nottingham Forest and Liverpool Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Nottingham Forestlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Liverpoollast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
3
Nottingham Forest wins
1
Draws
5
Liverpool wins
Things to Watch: Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool
- ⚠️Liverpool's last 5 averages for shots and possession are anomalously low (likely data gap), so goal/attack estimates are based on broader season stats and recent results.
- ⚠️Forest's home record is weak, but recent form is improved.
- ⚠️H2H sample is small; last result may not be fully indicative.
- ⚠️No lineups available; late injuries or rotations could impact predictions.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds imply a lower goal expectancy than model suggests.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 February 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.