Notts County vs Stockport County Predictions
League One · England
Notts County
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Stockport County
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Notts County vs Stockport County: Match Preview
Notts County come into this fixture mired in the relegation zone, with just one win from eight league games and a home record of one win, one draw, and two defeats. Their last five matches in all competitions show a patchy WLWLL pattern, including a heavy cup win but three league losses. Stockport County, by contrast, sit third in the table with five wins in nine and a three-match winning streak in all competitions, underpinned by the division’s second-best attack.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by Stockport’s offensive output (2.22 goals per game, 15.8 shots per match in the last five) against a Notts County defence that has yet to keep a clean sheet in the league. Notts County’s attack has been inconsistent, failing to score in two of their last five, while Stockport’s away defence (0.75 goals conceded per game) has been robust. Both sides generate high corner counts—Notts 4.2, Stockport 7.4 per game recently—suggesting set-piece opportunities will be plentiful. Cards could also be a subplot, with Notts County’s 2.8 yellows per game a league-high rate.
The model projects a moderately high-scoring contest, with Stockport’s sustained shot and goal volumes likely to decide it. Notts County’s home struggles and defensive frailty against top-six opposition suggest the visitors will create the better chances, making a 2-1 away win the likeliest outcome. The main risk is a Notts County goal surge or Stockport’s defence underperforming its season average.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Notts County vs Stockport County Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Notts County vs Stockport County that most previews miss.
- 1Stockport County’s away games average just 0.75 goals conceded per match, the best among the league’s top six.
- 2Notts County have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their eight league matches this season.
- 3Combined, these sides average 11.6 corners per game over their last five matches.
Who do you think wins: Notts County vs Stockport County?
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The Case For This Notts County vs Stockport County Prediction
Stockport County arrive at Meadow Lane with a clear edge in both season-long output and recent form, while Notts County’s underlying numbers point to a side struggling to keep pace at League One level. Stockport’s attack is producing 2.22 goals per game across the season and 1.8 in their last five, a sharp contrast to Notts County’s 1.0 per game and just four goals in four home league matches. Defensively, Notts County have yet to keep a clean sheet in the league, conceding 1.38 per game, while Stockport’s away record (three goals conceded in four) is among the league’s best. The matchup tilts towards the visitors on both ends: Stockport average 15.8 shots and 7.4 corners per game in their last five, indicating sustained attacking pressure, while Notts County have allowed 1.4 goals per game recently and look vulnerable after the break (six second-half goals conceded in last five). Set-piece volume also favours a high-corner environment, with both sides combining for over 11 per game. Discipline may play a role, as Notts County have averaged 2.8 yellows per match over their last five, compared to Stockport’s 1.0. Given these rates, the model expects Stockport’s offensive consistency to tell, projecting a 2-1 away win as the modal outcome. The likeliest deviation comes if Notts County can convert early pressure or Stockport’s defence regresses, but the underlying scoring and shot volumes point to the visitors controlling the expected goal environment.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Stockport County average 2.22 goals scored per game this season, compared to Notts County’s 1.0.
Defence
- →Notts County have yet to keep a league clean sheet and have conceded in every home match.
- →Stockport’s away defence: 0.75 goals conceded per away game, best among top-six sides.
🚩 Notts County vs Stockport County Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Notts County and 5.4 for Stockport County, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Notts County and Stockport County Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Notts County vs Stockport County Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Notts Countylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Stockport Countylast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Notts County’s recent form is poor, with three defeats in their last five league matches and just one win all season. They have struggled to score consistently and have yet to record a clean sheet. Stockport County, meanwhile, are on a three-match winning run in all competitions and have lost just once in their last five, with their attack firing at nearly two goals per game recently.
Notts County vs Stockport County — Last 9 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
What History Says: Notts County vs Stockport County
The last nine head-to-head meetings are evenly split, but Stockport County have dominated the most recent encounters, winning three straight—including a 5-2 win at Meadow Lane in 2024. High-scoring games are common in this fixture, with both teams frequently finding the net.
Notts County vs Stockport County Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
3
Notts County wins
3
Draws
3
Stockport County wins
Things to Watch: Notts County vs Stockport County
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges and recommended bets are omitted.
- ⚠️Recent EFL Trophy matches may distort short-term form metrics.
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries could alter the tactical balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Notts County 1–2 Stockport CountyStockport County are favoured to win 2-1, driven by their season-long scoring rate of 2.22 goals per game and Notts County’s inability to keep clean sheets. The biggest threat to this outcome is if Notts County’s sporadic attack capitalises on early chances or Stockport’s defensive numbers regress sharply away from home.
Notts County vs Stockport County: Common Questions
Who will win Notts County vs Stockport County?
Stockport County are favoured, with a 52% probability of victory compared to Notts County’s 20%. The visitors’ attack averages over two goals per game, while Notts County have managed just one win in eight league matches.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Stockport County?
The probability of both teams scoring is finely balanced at 51%. Notts County have scored in three of their last five, but Stockport’s away defence has conceded just three in four away league games.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Notts County vs Stockport County?
There’s a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals, reflecting Stockport’s high-scoring profile (2.22 goals per game) and Notts County’s defensive vulnerabilities (1.38 conceded per game, no clean sheets).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Notts County vs Stockport County: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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