OFI vs PAOK Predictions
Super League 1 · Greece
OFI
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
PAOK
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 2.01(+15% edge)
Recommended Bets: OFI vs PAOK
OFI vs PAOK: Match Preview
OFI return to the Pankritio Stadium after a difficult run, having lost three straight in all competitions, but their home form in the league remains intact (2W, 1D, 0L, 6:2 goal difference). PAOK sit two places above in fourth, with a stronger overall record (4W, 2L) and a more potent attack, but come off a surprise 1-3 home defeat to Kalamata. Both sides are in the top half, with PAOK looking to keep pace with the title contenders and OFI aiming to stabilise after a rough patch.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by PAOK's attacking output (2.17 goals per game, 6 away in 3) against an OFI defence that has been solid at home (0.67 conceded per home match) but leaky away and recently. Both teams are above average for over 2.5 goals (OFI 57%, PAOK 83%), and their last five league games average 3.2 (OFI) and 3.0 (PAOK) total goals. Set-piece threat is moderate (OFI 4.4 corners, PAOK 3.4 corners per match), while discipline is a mild concern (combined 3.4 yellows per game in last five).
The model expects PAOK's superior shot volume (10.6 per game last five) and attacking depth to tip the balance, but OFI's home unbeaten run and goal threat (1.6 per game last five) suggest both teams will score. A 2-1 away win is the most probable outcome, with the numbers pointing to a high likelihood of at least three goals and a competitive first half.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
OFI vs PAOK Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind OFI vs PAOK that most previews miss.
- 1PAOK's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of 6 league games (83%), the highest rate among top-six sides.
- 2OFI have conceded 8 of their last 11 goals in the second half, indicating a late-game defensive vulnerability.
- 3Across the last ten H2H meetings, only two finished goalless or 1-0, with seven producing at least two goals.
Who do you think wins: OFI vs PAOK?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: OFI vs PAOK(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 2.01
Both sides average above 2.5 goals per game in the league (OFI 1.57 scored/conceded, PAOK 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded), and over 2.5 has landed in 57% of OFI and 83% of PAOK's league games; the model assigns 57% probability, well above the 49.8% implied by the odds.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw@ 3.62
The draw probability (27%) is slightly higher than the market's implied 27.6%, with both teams showing a tendency for close games and three draws in the last ten H2H meetings.
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More Super League 1 Predictions
The Case For This OFI vs PAOK Prediction
The numbers point to a competitive contest with a modest edge for PAOK, shaped by their superior attacking rate and OFI's home resilience. Goal rates for both sides are above league average, with PAOK's away scoring and OFI's home defence likely to decide the outcome. The likeliest scenario is a narrow PAOK win in a match where both teams find the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →PAOK have seen over 2.5 goals in 83% of league matches, and both teams have scored in 3 of their last 5 games.
Defence
- →PAOK average 2.17 goals scored per league game and 2.0 away, while OFI concede 1.57 per game.
- →OFI are unbeaten at home this season (2W 1D), conceding just 2 goals in 3 matches.
🚩 OFI vs PAOK Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for OFI and 4.4 for PAOK, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How OFI and PAOK Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
OFI vs PAOK Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
OFIlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
PAOKlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
OFI have hit a rough patch with three consecutive losses, conceding nine goals in that stretch, but remain unbeaten at home in the league (2W, 1D). PAOK have won four of their last six league games, scoring 13 in six, though they are coming off a surprise 1-3 home defeat. Momentum is with PAOK overall, but OFI's home performances provide a stabilising factor.
OFI vs PAOK — Last 7 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Over 2.5 goals in 83.33% of games this season
What History Says: OFI vs PAOK
The head-to-head record is balanced, with PAOK holding a slight edge (4 wins to OFI's 3, three draws in the last ten). Recent meetings have produced a mix of scorelines, but high-scoring games are common, and PAOK have won three of their last four away at OFI. Only two of the last ten finished with fewer than two goals.
OFI vs PAOK Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
OFI wins
3
Draws
4
PAOK wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: OFI vs PAOK
The biggest value identified is on over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.01, with the model's 57% probability implying a 14.6% edge over the market. The draw also offers a marginal edge at current prices, reflecting the statistical likelihood of a close contest given OFI's home record and the frequency of draws in recent H2H meetings.
Odds from Marathonbet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: OFI vs PAOK
- ⚠️OFI's home defensive record is strong, but recent form is poor (3 straight losses).
- ⚠️PAOK's away defence concedes 1.67 per game, so a clean sheet is unlikely.
- ⚠️Cup and European matches in both teams' recent schedules may introduce rotation or fatigue, but no injuries reported.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
OFI 1–2 PAOKThe data leans towards a 2-1 PAOK victory, driven by their league-best scoring rate (2.17 per game) and OFI's recent defensive lapses. The main risk is OFI's strong home record—unbeaten in the league and conceding less than a goal per home game—which could force a draw if PAOK struggle to break through.
OFI vs PAOK: Common Questions
Who will win OFI vs PAOK?
PAOK are favoured with a 54% win probability, compared to 19% for OFI and 27% for the draw. This reflects PAOK's stronger attack (2.17 goals per game) and recent away form, though OFI's home record is a mitigating factor.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in OFI vs PAOK?
The model assigns a 57% probability to over 2.5 goals, supported by both teams' high season averages (OFI 1.57 scored/conceded, PAOK 2.17 scored) and 83% of PAOK's league games featuring three or more goals.
Will both teams score in OFI vs PAOK?
Both teams to score is rated at 54% probability, with both sides finding the net in three of their last five league matches and neither defence consistently keeping clean sheets.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for OFI vs PAOK: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.