Oldham vs Crawley Town Predictions
League Two · England
Oldham
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Crawley Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Recommended Bets: Oldham vs Crawley Town
Oldham vs Crawley Town: Match Preview
Oldham return to Boundary Park looking to build on a patchy but improving home record, having collected 10 of their 11 points on their own turf and scoring four in their last league outing there. Crawley Town, bottom of the table with just five points from ten games, arrive on a two-match losing streak and the division's worst defensive record. Both sides are in the relegation mix, making this a high-stakes encounter for early-season momentum.
Statistically, the game is shaped by defensive frailty on both sides: Oldham concede 1.55 per game, Crawley 2.0, and neither side has managed more than one clean sheet in their last five. Oldham's attack is notably sharper at home (1.83 per game), while Crawley have scored in each of their last five, averaging 2.0 per match in that stretch. The shot and corner metrics (Oldham 14.6 shots, 4.6 corners; Crawley 13.2 shots, 4.0 corners per last five) point to an open, high-event contest, with both teams also racking up fouls and cards above the league mean.
Given these rates, the model expects a match with multiple goals and a high probability of both teams scoring. Oldham's superior home output and marginally less porous defence give them the edge, but with both sides' defensive volatility, a draw or high-scoring stalemate is a plausible outcome. The likeliest scenarios are 2-1 or 1-1, with over 2.5 goals and BTTS both statistically favoured.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Oldham vs Crawley Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Oldham vs Crawley Town that most previews miss.
- 1Crawley have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their 10 league matches this season, conceding at least once in every game.
- 2Oldham's home matches average 3.0 total goals per game, and 67% have gone over 2.5 goals.
- 3In the last ten head-to-heads, seven have produced at least three goals, and both teams have scored in six.
Who do you think wins: Oldham vs Crawley Town?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Oldham vs Crawley Town(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have exceeded 2.5 goals in over half their league matches (Oldham 54.6%, Crawley 60%), and their combined last-5 average is 3.8 total goals per game.
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Match Result: Oldham Win
Oldham's home record (3W, 1D, 2L, +4 GD) is significantly stronger than Crawley's away (1W, 1D, 3L, -3 GD), and Crawley have yet to keep a clean sheet all season.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 3 of Oldham's last 5 and 4 of Crawley's last 5, with both teams averaging over 1.5 goals conceded per game.
More League Two Predictions
The Case For This Oldham vs Crawley Town Prediction
Boundary Park hosts a clash between two of League Two's bottom four, with Oldham's home output and Crawley's defensive frailty setting the statistical tone. Oldham have claimed 10 of their 11 points at home, scoring 11 in 6 at Boundary Park, while Crawley arrive with the division's leakiest defence and just one away win all season. Both sides' recent matches have trended towards high shot counts and open play, with neither keeping more than a single clean sheet in their last five. Oldham's attack has spiked at home (1.83 goals per game), and their last five matches show a 1.8 goals scored average, but defensive lapses remain: they've conceded two or more in three of their last five. Crawley are conceding two per game across the season and have failed to keep a single clean sheet, but have scored in every one of their last five, averaging 2 goals per match in that stretch. Set piece data points to a high-corner environment (Oldham 4.6, Crawley 4.0 per game last five), while both teams' fouls and cards rates are above league average, suggesting a combative midfield. The model expects a match shaped by defensive weaknesses and attacking intent, with Oldham's home advantage and marginally stronger defensive record tipping the balance. Probability distributions favour a 2-1 or 1-1 outcome, with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score both supported by recent rates. Crawley's inability to shut out opponents and Oldham's home scoring tilt the edge to the hosts, but neither side's defensive record inspires confidence in a clean sheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both sides' last five matches average over 3.5 total goals per game, with BTTS landing in 7 of 10 combined.
Defence
- →Oldham have scored 11 goals in 6 home league matches (1.83 per game), while Crawley have conceded 9 in 5 away (1.8 per game).
- →Crawley have not kept a clean sheet in any of their 10 league games this season.
🚩 Oldham vs Crawley Town Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Oldham and 4.8 for Crawley Town, for an expected total of 10.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 68% · Over 10.5: 43%.
How Oldham and Crawley Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Oldham vs Crawley Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Oldhamlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Crawley Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Oldham's recent form is mixed, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five, but their home performances have been notably stronger, including a 4-1 win over Cheltenham. Crawley are struggling, winless in their last four league matches and conceding heavily, though they've managed to score in each of their last five. Both sides show attacking intent but lack defensive assurance.
Oldham vs Crawley Town — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Oldham vs Crawley Town
Oldham have the edge in the recent head-to-head, winning five of the last ten and unbeaten at home in this fixture since 2020. High-scoring draws are common, with three 2-2 or 3-3 results in the last five meetings. The fixture trends towards goals, with BTTS and over 2.5 both frequent outcomes.
Oldham vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Oldham wins
3
Draws
2
Crawley Town wins
Things to Watch: Oldham vs Crawley Town
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams' defensive records are volatile, raising variance in scoreline distribution.
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small and could overstate attacking improvement.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Oldham 2–1 Crawley TownThe model makes Oldham slight favourites, projecting a 2-1 home win, with the strongest data point being Crawley's 0% clean sheet rate and 2.0 goals conceded per game. The greatest risk to this outcome is Oldham's own defensive inconsistency, as they've conceded multiple goals in three of their last five, leaving the door open for a high-scoring draw.
Oldham vs Crawley Town: Common Questions
Who will win Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Oldham are favoured with a 44% probability of victory, compared to 24% for Crawley and a 32% chance of a draw. This is driven by Oldham's much stronger home record and Crawley's defensive struggles.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
The model gives a 54% probability to both teams scoring, as BTTS has landed in 3 of Oldham's last 5 and 4 of Crawley's last 5, and neither side has a reliable defence.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in Oldham vs Crawley Town?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 57%, with both teams averaging over 1.5 conceded per game and a combined 57% of their league matches going over this line.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Oldham vs Crawley Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.