Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Orgryte IS
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Vasteras SK FK
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Vasteras SK FK Win
Match Result
6.8/10Västerås Dominate but Orgryte Hold Firm in Goalless Stalemate at Gamla Ullevi
Despite a relentless attacking display from Västerås SK FK, Orgryte IS stood resolute to secure a 0-0 draw at Gamla Ullevi. Västerås controlled the match with a commanding 64% possession and unleashed 25 shots, but their efforts were repeatedly thwarted by a disciplined Orgryte backline and a standout performance from goalkeeper A. Rahm. Orgryte, lining up in a defensive 5-3-2, absorbed wave after wave of pressure, conceding 11 corners and picking up four yellow cards in a physical display. While the home side managed just 36% possession and three shots on target, they remained organized and occasionally threatened on the break, but ultimately neither side could find the breakthrough in a tense, hard-fought encounter.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
18' — Yellow Card
Orgryte's D. Paulson goes into the book for a late challenge, setting the tone for a physical contest.
34' — Save
A. Rahm makes a fine stop to deny J. Magnusson, keeping Orgryte level.
52' — Corner
Västerås earn their seventh corner, but Orgryte's defense holds strong.
67' — Yellow Card
W. Kenndal receives Orgryte's third yellow card as the home side digs in defensively.
81' — Shot on Target
Västerås' A. Taonsa forces another save from Rahm, but the deadlock remains.
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS set up with a clear defensive mindset, deploying a five-man backline to stifle Västerås' attacking trio. The hosts spent much of the match under pressure, but their collective discipline and resilience were impressive, particularly in the face of 25 shots and 11 corners from the visitors. While their attacking forays were limited, Orgryte did manage to carve out 12 shots of their own, though only three tested the Västerås keeper. Their ability to maintain structure and composure, even after collecting four yellow cards, was central to earning a valuable point against a dominant opponent.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Vasteras SK FK
Västerås SK FK dominated proceedings from start to finish, dictating tempo with 64% possession and peppering the Orgryte goal with 25 shots, seven of which were on target. Their 3-4-3 formation allowed for width and numbers in attack, but despite their territorial advantage and 11 corners, they could not breach the Orgryte defense. While their attacking intent was clear, Västerås were occasionally frustrated by Orgryte's deep block and were forced to settle for speculative efforts. Their discipline slipped at times, conceding 14 fouls, but overall they will rue missed opportunities in a match they controlled.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Orgryte IS's 5-3-2 formation prioritized defensive solidity, crowding their own box and limiting space for Västerås' front three. The wing-backs dropped deep, effectively forming a back five for much of the match, while the midfield trio focused on screening the defense and disrupting Västerås' rhythm. This compactness forced Västerås to attack predominantly from wide areas, resulting in a high number of corners and crosses but few clear-cut chances. Västerås, in their 3-4-3, sought to stretch play with their wing-backs and overload the flanks, but struggled to penetrate centrally. Their pressing forced Orgryte into hurried clearances and turnovers, but the lack of a clinical edge in the final third ultimately cost them. Both sides made tactical fouls to break up play, as evidenced by the high foul count and multiple bookings.
Turning Point
A. Rahm's crucial save from J. Magnusson in the 34th minute preserved parity and galvanized Orgryte's defensive effort.
Man of the Match
A. Rahm
His string of vital saves under relentless pressure was pivotal in securing Orgryte's clean sheet and hard-earned point.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK: Match Preview
Orgryte IS enter the penultimate round desperate for points to escape the drop zone, sitting 15th with only four wins and a negative 26 goal difference. Their recent form is erratic—one win, one draw, and three losses in the last five—highlighted by a 4-2 home win over Gais but offset by defensive collapses like the 0-3 at BK Hacken. Vasteras SK FK, sixth in the table and still mathematically in the hunt for a higher finish, have been more consistent, winning three of their last five and coming off an emphatic 3-0 away victory at Degerfors.
The statistical profile points to an open contest. Orgryte’s home games average 3.54 goals, with the side scoring 22 and conceding 24 in 13 at Gamla Ullevi. Vasteras SK FK’s away matches are similarly high-event, with 20 scored and 23 conceded in 13. Both teams’ last five games have seen a combined 2.6 (Orgryte) and 1.8 (Vasteras) goals per match, with Orgryte’s defensive record especially poor—just 11.5% clean sheets all season. Corners and cards are both above league average, suggesting set-piece and discipline could play a role.
Given these rates, the model expects Vasteras’ more balanced attack and stronger away record to prove decisive. Orgryte’s second-half defensive frailty (six of their last eight goals conceded after the break) and Vasteras’ ability to create chances on the road tilt the probabilities towards a 2-1 away win, with both teams likely to score and the over 2.5 goals line well in play.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK that most previews miss.
- 1Five of the last ten H2H meetings have finished 1-1, but Vasteras SK FK have won the last two by a combined 4-0.
- 2Orgryte IS have conceded 1.85 goals per home game, while Vasteras SK FK average 1.54 goals scored per away match.
- 3Orgryte IS matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 61.5% of games, the highest rate among bottom-four sides.
Who do you think wins: Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Vasteras SK FK Win
Vasteras SK FK have won 7 of 13 away matches this season and face an Orgryte IS side with only 2 home wins and the league's worst defensive record at home (24 conceded in 13).
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Orgryte IS matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 61.5% of games, driven by a concession rate of 2.23 per game, while Vasteras SK FK average 1.5 scored and 1.46 conceded per match.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Orgryte IS have scored in 4 of their last 5 and both teams have found the net in 4 of those games; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 2 of 5 but face a defence with just 11.5% clean sheets this season.
Read more ↓
More Allsvenskan Predictions
The Case For This Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction
This fixture brings together a relegation-threatened Orgryte IS, with just four wins in 26, and a Vasteras SK FK side pushing for a top-half finish, boasting the league’s sixth-best away record. Orgryte’s recent form is patchy, with a single win in five and a leaky defence that has conceded 58 goals this season. Vasteras arrive off a 3-0 away win and have claimed seven wins from thirteen on the road, underlining their threat outside their own ground. Statistically, the matchup skews towards goals. Orgryte’s home matches average 3.54 goals, and they have scored 22 but conceded 24 in 13 at Gamla Ullevi. Vasteras SK FK’s away games are similarly open, with 20 scored and 23 conceded in 13. The home side’s last five have featured 16 goals (1.6 scored, 2.2 conceded per game), while Vasteras have kept two clean sheets in five but generally allow chances (0.8 conceded per game in last five, but 1.77 away for the season). Both sides generate a healthy shot volume, with Orgryte averaging 10.6 shots and Vasteras 13.8 in their last five. The model expects Vasteras’ more balanced attack and superior away record to edge a high-scoring contest. Orgryte’s defensive frailty, especially in the second half (6 of their last 8 goals conceded after the break), suggests Vasteras will find opportunities as the match progresses. The likeliest outcome is a 2-1 away win, with the distribution of goals and both teams’ openness supporting overs and BTTS angles.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Orgryte IS have conceded 24 goals in 13 home matches (1.85 per game), the worst home defensive record in the league.
- →Vasteras SK FK have won 7 of 13 away games, scoring 20 and conceding 23 on their travels.
Match Context
- →Orgryte IS matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 61.5% of fixtures, while Vasteras SK FK are at 53.8%.
🚩 Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Orgryte IS and 6 for Vasteras SK FK, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
How Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Orgryte ISlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vasteras SK FKlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Orgryte IS have struggled for consistency, posting just one win in their last five and conceding at least two goals in four of those matches. Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have won three of their last five, including an impressive 3-0 away win at Degerfors, and have shown greater defensive stability with two clean sheets in that span.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK
The last ten meetings between these sides have produced six draws, most commonly 1-1, but Vasteras SK FK have taken control recently with back-to-back wins to nil. While the historical trend is towards low-scoring stalemates, the recent shift favours the visitors.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Orgryte IS wins
6
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK wins
Things to Watch: Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of modelling, so value calculations are not possible.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in recent form, with Orgryte scoring four in one game but blanking in another.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but late squad changes could affect lineups and in-game dynamics.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Orgryte IS 1–2 Vasteras SK FKThe model projects a 2-1 win for Vasteras SK FK, primarily on the strength of Orgryte IS’s league-worst home defensive record (24 conceded in 13) and Vasteras’ proven ability to win away. The main risk is the high draw rate in this H2H (six in ten), which could resurface if Vasteras fail to convert their chances or Orgryte’s attack overperforms at home.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK: Common Questions
Who will win Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
The model assigns a 53% probability to a Vasteras SK FK away win, with Orgryte IS at 19% and a draw at 28%. Vasteras’ strong away record and Orgryte’s defensive struggles are the decisive factors.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
There is a 56% probability for both teams to score, driven by Orgryte’s 61.5% over 2.5 goals rate and just 11.5% clean sheets, alongside Vasteras’ attacking output away from home.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 57%, based on both teams’ high-scoring match profiles—Orgryte’s home games average 3.54 goals and Vasteras away games average 3.31.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 31 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.