Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Vasteras SK FK
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Orgryte IS
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
7.3/10Vasteras Outclass Orgryte with Convincing 2-0 Home Victory
Vasteras SK FK delivered a commanding performance at the Hitachi Energy Arena, defeating Orgryte IS 2-0 in a match where the hosts asserted their dominance from the outset. Goals in each half—first in the 13th minute and then again just before the hour mark—ensured that Vasteras collected all three points, while Orgryte struggled to create clear chances and rarely threatened the home goal. The hosts controlled the rhythm of the game, enjoying 57% possession and firing 15 shots, 7 of which were on target. In contrast, Orgryte managed just two shots on target from 13 attempts, a testament to Vasteras' defensive solidity and midfield control. Despite Orgryte's attempts to rally, including earning five corners, they found themselves stifled by a well-organized Vasteras side that rarely looked troubled.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
Key Moments
13' — Goal
Mikkel Ladefoged opens the scoring for Vasteras with a well-taken finish.
59' — Goal
Taonsa Axel doubles Vasteras' lead, capitalizing on sustained pressure.
67' — Yellow Card
Owen Parker-Price is booked for a late challenge as Orgryte's frustrations mount.
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK were the superior side throughout, combining disciplined defending with sharp attacking play. Their 3-4-3 formation allowed them to dominate the midfield and transition quickly into attack, resulting in 15 shots and two well-taken goals. The home side's pressing and energy forced Orgryte into mistakes, while their own defense remained largely untroubled, not conceding a single goal or card. The midfield pairing of Mamadou Diagne and Ismet Lushaku was particularly influential, dictating the tempo and winning key duels. Up front, the attacking trio kept Orgryte's back line busy all evening, with Mikkel Ladefoged and Taonsa Axel both playing pivotal roles in the goals.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS struggled to impose themselves against a well-drilled Vasteras side. Despite fielding a matching 3-4-3 formation, they were often second best in midfield and failed to convert their possession into meaningful chances. Their 13 shots yielded just two on target, reflecting a lack of cutting edge in the final third. The visitors did show some promise from set pieces, earning five corners, but their attacks were largely blunted. Defensive lapses and a yellow card for Owen Parker-Price summed up a frustrating evening, as Orgryte failed to find a way back after conceding early.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 3-4-3 formation, but Vasteras executed their game plan with greater precision. Their wing-backs provided width, stretching Orgryte and opening spaces for the front three. The midfield duo of Diagne and Lushaku consistently won second balls, enabling Vasteras to sustain attacks and recycle possession. High pressing forced Orgryte into rushed clearances and turnovers. Orgryte struggled to break through Vasteras' compact defensive line and often resorted to long balls or set pieces, where they found little joy. Their inability to transition quickly from defense to attack left their forwards isolated, and tactical adjustments—if any—failed to shift the momentum.
Turning Point
Taonsa Axel's goal in the 59th minute gave Vasteras a two-goal cushion, effectively ending Orgryte's hopes of a comeback.
Man of the Match
Mikkel Ladefoged
His early goal set the tone and his movement and work rate kept Orgryte's defense under constant pressure.
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS: Match Preview
Vasteras SK FK approach this fixture on the back of consecutive league wins, including a 2-0 home victory and a 3-1 away result, which has propelled them into the top half of the table. Their recent form string (WWLLW) marks an improvement after a patchy spell, and they have failed to score in none of their last five. Orgryte IS, meanwhile, remain mired in the relegation zone with just two wins from twelve, and their away form is among the league's worst—five defeats in six, with a -16 away goal difference.
Statistically, this is a matchup of Vasteras' high-tempo, direct attack (averaging 11.2 shots and 2.8 goals per last five) against an Orgryte defence conceding 2.58 per match overall and 3.17 away. Vasteras' home matches average four goals, but they have kept just one clean sheet in their last five. Orgryte's attack is heavily back-loaded, with five of their last six goals coming in the second half, and their last five have produced three BTTS outcomes. Set-piece threat is moderate, with both sides averaging under four corners per game recently.
The model expects Vasteras to assert themselves early, likely taking a first-half lead, but their defensive lapses will give Orgryte opportunities—especially after the break. With both teams trending towards high-scoring games and defensive lapses, a 2-1 or 2-0 home win is the most probable outcome, though a late Orgryte goal could swing the scoreline.
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Expected goals · model says 1.95
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS that most previews miss.
- 1Orgryte IS have conceded three or more goals in four of their six away league matches this season.
- 2Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in four of their last five league outings.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have ended level, but only one of the last five produced over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
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The Case For This Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS Prediction
Vasteras SK FK enter this fixture with a solid mid-table platform, having collected 18 points from 12 matches and showing a strong upturn with back-to-back wins. Orgryte IS, by contrast, sit 15th with only 9 points and have managed just a single away win all season, conceding over three goals per away outing. The statistical backdrop points to a clear gap in defensive reliability and recent momentum. Both sides are prone to high-scoring matches: Vasteras average 1.83 scored and 1.92 conceded per game, while Orgryte's away record is especially porous at 3.17 goals conceded per away match. Shot volumes and possession figures suggest Vasteras are more direct, but Orgryte's attack has shown flashes, particularly in the second half of games. The model expects Vasteras to generate more early pressure, with Orgryte's best chance coming after the break. Given the underlying rates, Vasteras are projected to control proceedings, but their leaky defence leaves the door open for Orgryte to get on the scoresheet. The most likely scenario is a home win in a match with at least two goals, but the visitors' late scoring trend and Vasteras' tendency to concede mean the clean sheet is far from assured.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Vasteras SK FK have scored 12 and conceded 12 in six home matches, highlighting both attacking output and defensive vulnerability.
- →Orgryte IS have lost five of six away, conceding 19 goals (3.17 per game) and scoring only three.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in more than half their league matches (Vasteras 66.7%, Orgryte 58.3%).
🚩 Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.6 corners for Vasteras SK FK and 4.8 for Orgryte IS, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How Vasteras SK FK and Orgryte IS Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Vasteras SK FKlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Orgryte ISlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vasteras SK FK have rebounded from a rocky spell with two straight league wins, scoring five and conceding just one in those matches. Orgryte IS, in contrast, have just one win in their last five and have lost five of six away, conceding 19 goals on their travels. The momentum and underlying rates both favour the home side.
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
What History Says: Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS
The recent head-to-head record is draw-heavy, with six of the last ten encounters finishing level and just one of the last five producing more than two goals. However, both teams' current defensive frailties suggest this meeting could buck the low-scoring H2H trend.
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Vasteras SK FK wins
6
Draws
2
Orgryte IS wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value assessment and recommended bets cannot be provided. If odds become available, the model would look for value on Vasteras SK FK and the over 2.5 goals market, given the underlying rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds were available for value calculation or recommended bets.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies are included in last five form but may not reflect league intensity.
- ⚠️Both sides have fluctuating defensive performances, increasing scoreline variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Vasteras SK FK 2–1 Orgryte ISVasteras SK FK are projected to win 2-1, with the single strongest data point being Orgryte's 3.17 goals conceded per away match. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if Vasteras' own defensive issues allow Orgryte to capitalise late, turning a likely home win into a draw.
Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS: Common Questions
Who will win Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
Vasteras SK FK are favoured with a 54% probability of victory, compared to 19% for Orgryte IS and 27% for the draw. The home side's stronger attack and Orgryte's poor away defence drive this forecast.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
There is a 58% probability of both teams scoring, reflecting Vasteras' run of four BTTS outcomes in their last five and Orgryte's tendency to concede heavily but still find the net late.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS?
The model gives a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both teams' league matches exceeding that mark in over half their games and Orgryte conceding at a rate of 3.17 per away match.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Vasteras SK FK vs Orgryte IS: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.