Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Predictions
La Liga · Spain
Osasuna
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Atletico Madrid
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 4.33(+21% edge)
Match Result
7.3/10Atletico Madrid Edge Osasuna in Fiery Contest at El Sadar
Atletico Madrid survived a late Osasuna onslaught to claim a hard-fought 2-1 victory at Estadio El Sadar. Despite being reduced to ten men and conceding deep into stoppage time, Diego Simeone's side made the most of their clinical finishing, scoring twice from just five shots on target, while Osasuna were left ruing missed opportunities after dominating possession and firing 23 shots. The visitors struck first through Antoine Griezmann in the 15th minute and doubled their lead via Ademola Lookman midway through the second half. Osasuna, who had been frustrated throughout by Atletico's defensive resilience and their own profligacy, finally found the net through Ante Budimir in the 90th minute, but it proved too little, too late. The match was marred by a flurry of cards, with Atletico finishing with ten men after a late red, and both teams collecting a combined 11 yellows.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
15' — Goal
Antoine Griezmann finishes off a swift move to give Atletico Madrid an early lead.
71' — Goal
Ademola Lookman doubles Atletico's advantage, capitalizing on a rare attack.
90' — Goal
Ante Budimir pulls one back for Osasuna, sparking a frantic finish.
Late' — Red Card
Atletico Madrid reduced to ten men after a sending off, intensifying Osasuna's late pressure.
Osasuna
Osasuna played with admirable intensity and attacking intent, controlling 58% of possession and launching 23 shots, but struggled to convert their dominance into goals. Their midfield trio of Moncayola, Torro, and Garcia orchestrated play well, but the final ball was often lacking, and they were repeatedly denied by a resolute Atletico defense and goalkeeper Juan Musso. Despite a late surge and a consolation goal from Ante Budimir in the 90th minute, Osasuna's inability to capitalize on their chances—just 5 of their 23 shots were on target—ultimately cost them. Their frustration boiled over into ill-discipline, as they picked up six yellow cards in a heated encounter.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid executed a classic smash-and-grab away performance, soaking up pressure and striking clinically on the counter. With just 42% possession and only 5 shots in total, they made their chances count, with Antoine Griezmann and Ademola Lookman both finding the net at crucial moments. Defensively, Atletico were typically robust, restricting Osasuna to few clear-cut opportunities despite the shot count, and goalkeeper Juan Musso made several important saves. However, their discipline wavered late on, as they picked up five yellow cards and a red, forcing them to defend deep in the closing stages.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Osasuna lined up in a 4-2-3-1, seeking to control the midfield and build attacks patiently. Their fullbacks pushed high, and the midfield trio dictated possession, but they often found Atletico's compact 4-4-2 block difficult to break down. The hosts relied on width from R. Moro and M. Gomez, but struggled to create clear openings in the final third. Atletico Madrid, true to form, sat deep and absorbed pressure, looking to spring forward quickly through the pace and intelligence of Griezmann and Lookman. Their defensive discipline was largely exemplary until late ill-discipline set in. After the red card, Atletico shifted to an even deeper block, inviting Osasuna forward and relying on Musso's goalkeeping to see out the win.
Turning Point
Ademola Lookman's 71st-minute goal, which put Atletico 2-0 up and gave them a crucial cushion to withstand Osasuna's late barrage.
Man of the Match
A. Griezmann
Set the tone with the opening goal and led Atletico's attacking threat with composure and intelligence.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
BTTS: Yes
40%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 4.33
Model probability for BTTS is 44%, while odds imply just 23.1%. Both teams have shown vulnerabilities defensively, and Osasuna's home matches see frequent BTTS. Value is strong even if the match is expected to be tight.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.3
Model sees a 36% chance of a draw, notably higher than the 30.3% implied by odds. Both teams are on mixed form with defensive strengths and attacking inconsistencies, supporting a cagey, low-scoring draw.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4
Although under is favored, the price for over 2.5 is generous given both teams' season over 2.5 rates (48.57%). The model assigns a 34% chance, creating a notable value edge.
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More La Liga Predictions
The Case For This Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Osasuna host Atletico Madrid in a fixture where both sides arrive on the back of patchy form and with key absences. Osasuna's home record is solid, but recent defensive lapses and a lack of clean sheets raise concerns. Atletico, despite a superior league position and attacking talent, have been inconsistent away and are missing several regulars. Expect a tense and tactical contest, with a draw the likeliest outcome but both teams capable of finding the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Osasuna have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 5 matches and conceded 1.6 goals per game in that stretch.
- →Atletico Madrid have only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 and have struggled to score early, with all recent goals coming in the second half.
Injuries & Team News
- →Both teams are missing important players due to injury and suspension, notably in midfield and attack for Atletico.
Match Context
- →Osasuna's home record (9W, 5D, 3L) is strong, but Atletico's away record is just average (5W, 5D, 7L).
- →Head-to-head is heavily in Atletico's favor (8 wins in last 10), but Osasuna did win the most recent home meeting.
- →Both teams' matches go over 2.5 goals 48.57% of the time this season.
🚩 Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Osasuna and 5.8 for Atletico Madrid, for an expected total of 11.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (70%). Over 8.5: 80% · Over 10.5: 58%.
How Osasuna and Atletico Madrid Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Osasunalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Atletico Madridlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Osasuna come into this match with just one win in their last five (LLWLD), conceding frequently and struggling for consistency, especially after back-to-back losses. Atletico Madrid have also hit a rough patch (LLWDW), losing their last two including a home defeat to Celta Vigo, and their recent away form is mixed with only one win in their last three on the road.
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid
The head-to-head record is strongly in Atletico's favor, with 8 wins from the last 10, but Osasuna broke that streak with a 2-0 home win last season. Most encounters are tight and low-scoring, but the occasional BTTS result suggests both sides can threaten, especially given current defensive vulnerabilities.
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Osasuna wins
0
Draws
8
Atletico Madrid wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid
The model finds the most value in BTTS 'yes' at 4.33, with a probability gap of over 20% versus implied odds. The draw at 3.3 also offers a smaller but real edge, reflecting the likelihood of a close, cagey match. Over 2.5 goals is a speculative value play at 4.0, as both teams' season stats and recent defensive issues suggest the market may be underestimating the chance of a higher-scoring game.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid
- ⚠️Injury lists are long for both teams, especially Atletico, which could affect lineup strength and tactical setup.
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, corners, etc.) are missing for Osasuna's recent games, reducing confidence in set piece and shot-based projections.
- ⚠️Atletico's away inconsistency and Osasuna's defensive issues add variance to the likely outcome.
- ⚠️Market odds may move closer to kickoff as lineups are confirmed and injury news becomes clearer.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.